can BTC ever return to significantly below $100? - page 2.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: evolve on April 23, 2013, 05:58:08 PM

Quote from: smoothie on April 23, 2013, 05:40:09 PM

no

Nope. Not ever.

.........EVER.

Even after the universe suffers heat death, and the last piece of matter has decayed into nothingness, bitcoin will live on...like Jesus or 80's rock.

All Hail Bitcoin!!

Roll Eyes

Yes if you follow the true beliefs of a "true believer" to it's ultimate extent, that is actually what they truly think will happen. It's ridiculous beyond any notion but here it is:

Ever noticed the terminology "Bitcoin singularity" here in the speculation forum? As I mentioned in my thread "This is what some of you actually believe" it is borrowed from transhumanism which in term uses it to describe two things: 1. infinite technological progress in a finite amount of time and 2. which is essentially the same thing when it comes down to it the the actual heat death of the universe itself as described in tiplers omega point.
The latter is the holy grail of transhumanism and as such of Bitcoinism which falls under the same category.

In one sentence the omega point consists of a computer made up of all matter the universe build by it's inhabitants to simulate not only infinite universes but every possible universe recursively. (Said to be possible because of time dilation effects)

In a sense it's both the most romantic and delusional idea I know, for what's it worth. That Bitcoiners don't even know for themselves what they are talking about only makes this more funny mention.

PS: No I am not trolling
PPS: Ignore at your own peril

BubbleBoy

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30 (pessimist) to 60 (optimist) is what I expect too, long term. The buying sentiment is simply fading away:
https://www.google.com/trends/explore?hl=en#q=btc-e%2C%20bitstamp&date=today%201-m&cmpt=q

Ditto for mtgox, but I think these smaller exchanges are more relevant for buying sentiment because they are less likely to be searched by someone who simply wants to know the "price" of bitcoins. Plotting the exchanges also addresses the "people don't search for bitcoin anymore because they know what it is" argument.

This current dead cat is caused by people who were incentivized by the first run-up, sent their money to the exchanges, but the ddos and the attacks popped the bubble prematurely, before they could buy in. So they are seeing this as a chance to buy cheap, and the positive evolution confirms their expectation and fuels the greed. Trouble is, there are no greater fools filling the ranks from behind, people who were not caught in the initial whirlpool have seen the risk and will simply stay away.

seleme

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Duelbits.com

Of course it can, you might search the forum for posts from 2 weeks ago, you'd find much more optimistic questions.

Bitcoin market is so low that one fairly big sell off can send it to oblivion if some big holder decide it's in his interest. It might not too though, there's absolutely no way to know it at this point. Just be careful and don't ever let smarters like smoothie to blind your mind when it comes to your coins and your property.

evolve

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daytrader/superhero

Quote from: smoothie on April 23, 2013, 05:40:09 PM

no

Nope. Not ever.

.........EVER.

Even after the universe suffers heat death, and the last piece of matter has decayed into nothingness, bitcoin will live on...like Jesus or 80's rock.

All Hail Bitcoin!!

Roll Eyes

jambaman42

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Quote from: superduh on April 23, 2013, 04:04:08 PM

ok man. you'll be buying them soon enough but most likely not for what you are hoping for.

Maybe I will and maybe it won't be for the price I want. Right now I invested in a litecoin mining rig and I'm leaning toward buying some of those. But, chances are bitcoin will drop quite a bit in the coming months. By the end of the year I can see it being at a more stable 100, but it needs to grow.

smoothie

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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

no

nobbynobbynoob

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Annuit cœptis humanae libertas

The only flaw in that argument is this isn't June 2011.

I think (but do not know) that this recent bubble up was nowhere near as (proportionally) extreme or bubble-like as the runup in 2011. So the aftermath will perhaps pan out differently, because there are different forces at play now. That is not to say we won't go down, though.

SlipperySlope

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Stephen Reed

Quote

can BTC ever return to significantly below $100?

Yes it will.

Speculative financial theory, and the experience from the June 8, 2011 bubble, suggests that the collapse from the crash April 10 to the bottom will be deeper than most people expect. So if most bears around here expect $50, then it will likely be deeper than that in several months.

evolve

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daytrader/superhero

Yes, it can (and on a long enough time scale, will) fall below $100. The question is when.

kokjo

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You are WRONG!

theoretical answer: YES IT CAN.
what the rest of the forum thinks: NO!!!! it will be over $50000000 in 3 minutes.

my guess: maybe.

naphto

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Quote from: afbitcoins on April 23, 2013, 04:16:10 PM

However bitcoins seem to have weathered this last crash remarkably well. In fact I have changed my short term outlook back to BULLISH, I'm thinking we might see new highs sometime in July.

There is almost nothing that makes bitcoins worth more today than 3 weeks ago actually.
If the prices are rising again it is only because no one is selling, and lot of investors came and invested fiat into bitcoins. But sooner or later they will probably want to cash out and the price should decrease. I personally know some guys that bought expensives coins and are willing to sell them if the market hits 250 usd again, or hold them forever ...

afbitcoins

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It could go below $100 from a technical viewpoint, the floor of the long term rising trendline is currently about $20 or $30 or somewhere in that region. For me that is the minimum it could go to assuming the bitcoin cryptographic technology remains solid. The weak point is the exchanges specifically MtGox, if they encounter repeated serious problems, hacks etc then i could see the price go below $100.

However bitcoins seem to have weathered this last crash remarkably well. In fact I have changed my short term outlook back to BULLISH, I'm thinking we might see new highs sometime in July.

Brushan

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I don't think the price will go to 50$ ever again unless something big happens, for example bitcoins being globally banned or a bug in the protocol. Media coverage is not really needed anymore since VC's have opened their eyes for Bitcoin and large investors will make sure that their investments keep growing. With that said, i don't believe Bitcoin will lose all media coverage. It can be less mentioned in the news but i think it will keep making regular headlines on the financial pages.

nobbynobbynoob

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Quote from: micalith on April 23, 2013, 03:54:42 PM

I've seen allot of people here and on reddit speculating that the value of BTC is likely to compensate back to much lower than current rates, like around $50. I personally don't see it, what with the whole world jumping on the band wagon, but I'm new to this.

I'm no bear, but honestly, yes, the price could easily fall back below $100. Lower than, say, $40, is far less likely but I wouldn't say that's impossible. I think we'll never see <$10 (as most recently briefly occurred in October/November last year) ever again, barring a "fail" scenario in which we fall to zero, but again, it's all just... speculation.

If the price tanks, and there's no obvious rationale for it, be positive and view it as a buying opportunity.

superduh

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Quote from: jambaman42 on April 23, 2013, 04:01:04 PM

Once all the media decides that they're bored of bitcoin the value will take a significant hit. Personally I don't see it dropping too much below 50% of its value at the time, but it can't sustain being worth 100 with current hashpower/transaction combo. It's not used enough yet. I wouldn't pay more than $60 for one right now. They're just not worth it. If the media stops covering that's a lot less people paying attention. Which means a lot less value. Long term it could very easily go up to $1000+. But near term I see probably a peak of about 150, the media losing interest, and it dropping down to 60-75 range.

ok man. you'll be buying them soon enough but most likely not for what you are hoping for.

jambaman42

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Once all the media decides that they're bored of bitcoin the value will take a significant hit. Personally I don't see it dropping too much below 50% of its value at the time, but it can't sustain being worth 100 with current hashpower/transaction combo. It's not used enough yet. I wouldn't pay more than $60 for one right now. They're just not worth it. If the media stops covering that's a lot less people paying attention. Which means a lot less value. Long term it could very easily go up to $1000+. But near term I see probably a peak of about 150, the media losing interest, and it dropping down to 60-75 range.

micalith

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I've seen allot of people here and on reddit speculating that the value of BTC is likely to compensate back to much lower than current rates, like around $50. I personally don't see it, what with the whole world jumping on the band wagon, but I'm new to this.

Does anyone still think that there is a reason for it to return to a lower value other than government intervention or the 51% problem?

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