Can current sanctions Ruble inflation stop Russia?

DrBeer

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Quote from: avikz on March 03, 2022, 10:41:46 AM

We can already see the effect of the western countries on Russia. But considering the fact that Russia supplies almost 30% of Europe's natural gas, it won't be easy to break them. Also you will have to consider that Russia is a big exporter of weapons. So no matter whatever sanctions are imposed on them, Russia will find its way out! May not be quick but definitely possible in long term.

A war is unacceptable in 21st century but there are some open questions,

1. Why NATO is interested in including Ukraine into their alliance where Ukraine doesn't meet the eligibility criteria?
2. Wht Ukraine suddenly started demanding 3 billion dollar as rent to gas pipelines going through their country?
3. Why Ukraine suddenly became interested in becoming a EU member after Russia started invading their country?

We are only seeing the one side of the coin. We need to see the other side as well.

I answer:

1. This is a FALSE. It was Ukraine that asked to be accepted into NATO. And it is NATO that has so far denied us entry into this organization. In 2004, "intentions" were signed, but it did not go further. And now NATO says that you can not even talk about joining for 5-10 years.
2. Also a lie. Show source of information? I am even almost 100% sure in advance where the legs of this information stuffing "grow".
3. Also either a lie or deliberately distorted information. If you are interested in the real history, then the concept of joining (under the "long procedure") of Ukraine to the EU was started during the time of President Yushchenko. Those. since 2004. And it was precisely the rejection of the European vector, in 2013, that became the trigger for the Revolution of Dignity, in 2014.

I am a citizen of Ukraine, who observes all this in reality.

Do you have provable arguments against the above?

dezoel

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I believe that the ban on Russia by so many countries would result to a fall in their economy, which is happening , and would possibly continue to affect their economy still in some years to come.

There have been some people who think that Russia will get over this by using Bitcoin, since they have legalized it when the war started, but I am doubting this idea that Bitcoin would help them get over this. Doesn’t seem to me like that is something that is going to possibly happen, because I can’t see how Bitcoin can help them exactly. I know that some people are saying that because they are some Bitcoin fans, but you have to know that Russia is not the first country that have legalized Bitcoin, so it wouldn’t work; things with automatically get better because they legalized Bitcoin.

Argoo

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Quote from: ultrloa on March 07, 2022, 07:46:20 AM

No it will never stop Russia for what they are doing because they also have something huge to avenge to other country or shall we say something that can affect the global economy and those sanctions will just trigger Russia to do more action and pursue what they do on Ukraine. The only way what can make Russia change their mind and have peaceful insights toward Ukraine is to negotiate toward what Putin likes and they should stop fighting and sending more troops to taunt more the Russian forces.

Sanctions do not stop Putin yet, because he lives in his own world. In recent years, he has directed more than $5 billion towards subversive activities against Ukraine, creating groups that are dissatisfied with the political rule in Ukraine. They lied to him that it was ready and acting, stealing this money. That is why Putin made the stupid decision to attack Ukraine. The people of Ukraine in response to aggression rallied like never before, and over the past 8 years of a hybrid war with Russia, its armed forces have accumulated vast experience in warfare and therefore beat the advancing columns of Russian troops with pinpoint accuracy.
But the Russian population is now heavily supportive of Putin's move to attack Ukraine. This is facilitated by the years of propaganda information disseminated in the media and the downplaying of Russia's military losses in this war.
So far, the only real way to peace is the overthrow of Putin's ruling regime, because Ukrainians have no other choice than to defend their independence and sovereignty. To do this, it is necessary to continue to impose the most stringent international sanctions that will affect all sections of Russian society without exception. It is necessary somehow to awaken this sleeping slave people.

poldanmig

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Quote from: Synchronice on February 28, 2022, 05:38:37 PM

But can that stop Russia? During world wars, they survived with water, vodka and bread.

can, but for some reason. for the long term sanctions will make russia the worst. but if the war can be finished in the near future and some of the allied countries are still solid, it will have no effect. Whatever happens, I hope this war ends. in the end both countries experienced difficulties, regardless of who won or lost later. if the war lasts long this will cause bigger problems.

The current sanctions may weaken the Russian economy, but I don't think the impact of these sanctions will have a long-term effect on Russia, especially since we know that Russia is an important country that supplies minerals, gas and oil to Europe, so if they divert supplies to other countries, such as China or its allied countries, of course, their economy will slowly recover, and I actually see a bigger impact that Europe might get later if they don't lift the existing sanctions, because it is clear they will have difficulty getting gas, oil and raw materials for production industrial in Europe, 30% of which comes from Russia.

wozzek23

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It’s definitely going to be very bad for Russia. Lol, it’s not of surviving a world war with water, vodka and a bread, every country that has been through war has also been through that same situation where people had to survive with the least things that they can find, it’s a normal thing.

But after everything, what’s next? Their economy loses, their fiat becomes worthless and they wouldn’t be able to purchase a thing with it, people who are living there also turns out to be very poor because of how the fiat has lost value, except those who are wise enough to invest in good assets, if they have access to it. So it’s going to be very bad, and it’s definitely something that they would regret later. You should look at other countries in same situation.

TimeTeller

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Quote from: Captain Corporate on March 06, 2022, 05:19:32 PM

You can handle the energy shortages one way or another. You can find other providers, you can even end up not putting any type of energy into big energy stuff that are currently luxury and just focus on main needs to drop your need. So forth and so forth, definitely not ideal but not impossible to do neither. At the end of the day without money you can't do anything, so Russia is in a bigger danger right now. Doesn't mean that the world is all sunshines and rainbows for West neither, but it is "not as bad" to say the very least. Thats a big difference to say. Which is why I believe that Russia will do worse in the long run if they do not stop.

That’s true. I have seen people say all kinds of things about Putin being prepared for whatever is to come and the possibility of them being able to survive the inflation and the world turning back on them and the sanctioning. It just seems pretty funny to me as to how some people feel that they would be able to easily survive all that, it’s not easy.

How prepared are they, while their economy is already falling and their currency has lost too much value within a very short time? And this is just like the start of it, if they should keep going further into this, we know very well that this very much going to affect them more than what it has done right now.

Don't forget that China is not joining the sanctions over Russia.
This may be one wild card that Russia is holding onto.
Just think that China is one huge country and basically, most of our things come from or made from China.
Certainly, Russia will suffer from this war. They can survive but they will have limited engagements in the global trade.
This is if they will not stop this war and continue the aggression to the worst possible scenario.
But don't know if Ukraine will agree with the 4 conditions of Russia to stop temporarily this "demilitarization."

https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-says-russian-military-action-will-stop-moment-if-ukraine-meets-2022-03-07/
1. Ukraine cease military action
2. Change its constitution to enshrine neutrality
3. Acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory
4, Recognise the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states

ultrloa

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No it will never stop Russia for what they are doing because they also have something huge to avenge to other country or shall we say something that can affect the global economy and those sanctions will just trigger Russia to do more action and pursue what they do on Ukraine. The only way what can make Russia change their mind and have peaceful insights toward Ukraine is to negotiate toward what Putin likes and they should stop fighting and sending more troops to taunt more the Russian forces.

Dunamisx

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Quote from: Synchronice on February 28, 2022, 05:38:37 PM

It's expected by some economic experts that SWIFT ban will cause:
1. Up to 10% recession.
2. Up to 50% decline in export.
3. Inflation of Rubble.

All this three point are already happening in Russia, from the first point, inflation have already set in and the citizens are seriously affected and lamenting, their Rubble is down, the sanction placed and swift ban has already cover for a decline in export, and the last phase is the onset of recession to take place finally.

Looking into to Ukraine side of the story and how it has been affected, we can see the how contributions from different parts of the world were given in a form of bitcoin or any other crypto to help fight against the war, purchase millitary supply service and help the citizens with food and security parliatives.

Remember this is war and anything can turnaround by the end of it either in favor of Russia or Ukraine as we only know the begining bit the later end os unpredictable.

tyz

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Quote from: Synchronice on February 28, 2022, 05:38:37 PM

But can that stop Russia? During world wars, they survived with water, vodka and bread.

There are no outright sactions, at least not from Europe. Two of the largest banks, Grazprom Bank and Sberbank, are largely exempt from the sanctions, because otherwise no more commodities can be paid. The truth also includes that Europe is still importing almost $1 billion worth of gas, oil and coal every day, indirectly helping to finance the war. If Europe were to impose an embargo on these products, it would immediately lead to a massive increase in energy prices, which will probably cause social unrest in Europe.

darkangel11

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Quote from: Synchronice on February 28, 2022, 05:38:37 PM

But can that stop Russia? During world wars, they survived with water, vodka and bread.

Isn't water and vodka all the same for Russians? Tongue

To answer the question, I think it won't stop Russia because currently Russia is Putin. People are too afraid to do anything and according to polls about 50% of them support the invasion, so they will keep on living without western brands and the social media and they will blame the West for their hardship. Putin won't stop because he's stubborn. Ukraine hurt his ego and he's a small man who wants to be on top every time.

Argoo

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Quote from: Cling18 on March 06, 2022, 12:35:15 PM

Quote from: hatshepsut93 on March 01, 2022, 01:24:58 AM

One of the goals of sanctions is to weaken the Russian military, so in the long run, it could force Russia to stop this war. But this process could take years, as the Afghan war.

Puttin is truly decided to invade Ukraine and the current sanctions might worsen the conflict between these two countries. However, sanctions could affect Russia but it will take time because they have independent economy which is strong enough to resist these sanctions. I'm sure that Russia has reserved so much as a preparation for this war.

Many Russians see Putin as highly intelligent and able to foresee the full implications of an attack on Ukraine. This is far from being the case, and therefore his plan to seize Ukraine in 3-4 days failed miserably. The Ukrainians successfully repel the attack of the 150,000 Russian army and already over 11,000 Russians have died in Ukraine in 11 days of a large-scale invasion. The Russian occupiers are hungry because they have received only three days of dry rations, they are running out of fuel and increasingly they are abandoning their equipment and fleeing or surrendering. The Ukrainian army is also well rearmed with captured weapons, which are estimated at millions and tens of millions of dollars per unit.
Tough economic sanctions are necessary for Russia and are a logical response for the aggressor country. Already in the first days after their introduction, they have a devastating effect on the Russian economy. And every day this influence will increase. This will not stop Putin, but the people should think about it. If he does not eliminate his king, then let him deservedly live in poverty.

adaseb

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It looked like it was stabilizing however when the markets opened it spiked up to 137USDRUB. And if you consider the fact that one month ago it was 75 USDRUB, you are looking at pretty much almost a 50% loss.

Many citizens are suffering because of this and I doubt many of the Russian rich held much of the Rub. Most of them probably are holding assets, gold, USD, yen and perhaps Bitcoin.

Wonder if it will hit 200 USDRUB anytime soon.

Captain Corporate

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Quote from: jc12345 on March 06, 2022, 04:59:14 PM

You can handle the energy shortages one way or another. You can find other providers, you can even end up not putting any type of energy into big energy stuff that are currently luxury and just focus on main needs to drop your need. So forth and so forth, definitely not ideal but not impossible to do neither. At the end of the day without money you can't do anything, so Russia is in a bigger danger right now. Doesn't mean that the world is all sunshines and rainbows for West neither, but it is "not as bad" to say the very least. Thats a big difference to say. Which is why I believe that Russia will do worse in the long run if they do not stop.

jc12345

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In the end this will come down to who can last the longest, hunger and famine in Russia or the energy shortages in the West. The economic sanctions will cause unprecedented hardships in Russia and energy prices in the West is going to skyrocket. You mention that Russia has survived previously on Vodka and bread, but even that can only go so far. A lot of the Russian hard currency has been frozen so it cannot be used by Russia. All being equal, Russia will not be able to sustain the war if the resistance continue and by the looks of things Ukraine is putting up a lot of resistance. At some point something has got to give and one of the pillars that would give in is the Russian economy. Another factor that is going to impact a lot is that VISA, Master Card and American Express ahs stopped operating in Russia, and I am not even referring to SWIFT. This basically means that the population's cards will not work and people will have to stand in lines at the banks to withdraw cash to buy food.

uneng

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Despite sanctions, Russia still has powerful allies who can support them economically. Besides that, crypto universe if free for all, and russians can always rely on it to protect their money against ruble devaluation.

If those sanctions really work as expected, they are going to work on long run only, what means Putin still has a lot of time to create strategies to avoid the negative consequences of the western economical measures.

And actually, don't you think some people who are blaming and cancelling Russia right now wouldn't trade with them in secret, behind the curtains, if possible?

kryptqnick

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Quote from: Synchronice on February 28, 2022, 05:38:37 PM

But can that stop Russia? During world wars, they survived with water, vodka and bread.

All that stuff can cripple it, but it can't stop it, of course. That's why sanctions aren't enough, even though a big economic hit isn't nothing. But focusing on sanctions and economy, it can help make the war shorter in a few ways:
- Russia running out of weapons and out of money to buy them and to continue the war
- regular people in Russia taking a huge hit on their budgets as well as on what they can afford (and it's not North Korea, people in Russia are very used to Western goods and services!), and this incites protests, strikes etc, so Russia has to pull its forces out of the war against Ukraine because it needs to deal with the civil war
- Russian businesses and oligarchs taking a hit, and using the influence and resources at their possessions to put internal political pressure to stop the war

Quote from: istiak2277 on March 06, 2022, 03:13:07 PM

Sanction from the west is not new for Russia. Their economy survived these type of sanctions before. Russia officials said that they have built a system for these type of situation. They even prepared for SWIFT banning and announce that a system will be triggered if west ban Russia from SWIFT. They knew there will be a clash with the west so they planed everything accordingly.

They have never faced similar sanctions, actually. Also, there's a good video of another country that had propaganda that it's very strong and can deal with any Western sanctions, and that the West is hit harder by them than this country. That country's name is Soviet Union.

Japinat

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Russia made their decision knowing the consequences already, therefore I expect them to fully understand what they are doing and they know they can survive despite the sanctions. I just know from the post above that Russia at least owns 10% of the total bitcoin circulation in the market, therefore it's a huge advantage for them because their fiat might inflate in value but bitcoin could be one of their life savers.

istiak2277

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Sanction from the west is not new for Russia. Their economy survived these type of sanctions before. Russia officials said that they have built a system for these type of situation. They even prepared for SWIFT banning and announce that a system will be triggered if west ban Russia from SWIFT. They knew there will be a clash with the west so they planed everything accordingly.

Cling18

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on March 01, 2022, 01:24:58 AM

One of the goals of sanctions is to weaken the Russian military, so in the long run, it could force Russia to stop this war. But this process could take years, as the Afghan war.

Puttin is truly decided to invade Ukraine and the current sanctions might worsen the conflict between these two countries. However, sanctions could affect Russia but it will take time because they have independent economy which is strong enough to resist these sanctions. I'm sure that Russia has reserved so much as a preparation for this war.

gantez

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Quote from: Gyfts on March 05, 2022, 04:02:16 AM

Sanctions will go on and hurt both the Russian and Western economy while the war lasts a decade plus.

Na I doubt this is going to take longer than soon because Putin is already taking over the region of Ukraine. 10 years is a decade and the war doesn't have to get to that. The situation of the war may come to an end if they find a spot of settlement in Belarus. NATO countries too are making sure that things come to normal in Ukraine.

Topic: Can current sanctions Ruble inflation stop Russia? (Read 274 times)