Topic: Can I predict the value of BTC/USD? - page 2. (Read 12889 times)

That is what I was thinking, too.  And even if BTC is going to $10k soon,but then half a million is NOT really enough either... and would a person cash out or diversify part of that BTC portfolio.  My actions would depend in part about how quickly the price goes up and then for how long do I expect it to stay there and what had apparently caused the upswing.

This is the most critical parameter. I strongly believe that most of us here won't be around when USD/BTC is $50,000 though; as this alone, certainly may add some extra "spice" to most of our daily "needs"... People always like to treat ourselves better when we have the chance (and the ability) to do so. Do we really need it? No. But most of us do so anyway.

The amount really depend on your lifestyle.

People like Larry Ellison probably find it insufficient as he can spend up to 250k in one day alone.

It's a decisional game. I, for instance, will NOT sell even one BTC until I DESPERATELY need to spend it. Some people here just live off by mining and spending; others think that selling at $1200 was a good idea... so many people, so many decisions. Everyone thinks his choice is the best of all.

Yeah but if you had 50BTC and it went to 5000USD, are you saying you would cash out 100% of it just to retire? Could you live with the doubt of it reaching 10K and missing on legit gains?
And if you do not cash out, could you live off the doubt of it crashing after 5k?
It's a psychological game.

This is absolutely true for most of the US and most EU countries right now. Inflation is an inevitable decease and IMHO, that's where BTC will make the difference. The smartest people I know have a smart retirement plan that *INVOLVES* BTCs and PMs in it.

Well $250,000 is sufficient if you can live of off $10,000 of today's earning power of US Dollars indefinitely and don't invest foolishly.

I guess there are a lot of people in certain countries that would be able to more than retire form that amount of money. But when it comes to developed western countries, I guess most people tend to forget about the general inflation that's occurring. People are in danger of becoming broke when they're old.

Everything is a matter of perspective (and personal needs). Most people I know would have called it retirement at that point. 

50BTC at $5000 is only a quarter mill. I wouldn't call that retired just yet.

For one, this has happened before (see September 10). Secondly, it also went above for a couple of times. What we people do is trying to "fit" random data to "non random" equations. This thread is trying to prove that since there are "enormous sized" players into the game, the game itself cannot be described perfectly by a mathematical model and thus its unpredictable. Is there a possibility the USD/BTC value goes to zero? Yes it is. Is there a possibility that goes 100,000,000? Well, that has about the same odds with the first possibility.

I believe, this game is not for the masses. At least not for now. It requires a) either deep understanding of very complex economic aspects of our society or b) enormous levels of stupidity to go "all in" with bitcoin. I'm into neither of those categories. Or I'm into both of them. I'd say if I was an electron I'd define myself as super-positioned between these two quantum states. I'd advise you to read and try to comprehend Risto's SSS plan here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/sss-a-sane-and-simple-bitcoin-savings-plan-345065 and take a leap of faith. Or don't.

Everything is a choice.

What if we are heading under the blue line? That's my fear, I believe in bitcoin but this downswing seems that never ends.

I *think* it's not the time just yet. Realistically speaking any person with 50 BTCs or above could be considered "retired" by the time the next "projected bubble" occurs. That won't have to involve the trading drama though. Several charts have been posted here and elsewhere predicting the inevitable:



Chances are that this will happen sooner or later for a TON of other reasons though (https://plus.google.com/+PeterHDiamandis/posts/dWQFcpcws8V) but we don't know for sure *WHEN* its going to be. We may get a good idea though if we have our eyes and ears open (which is why we hang out a significant time of our lives in places like this).

So to summarize, I think this is the season; we're getting close, but not just yet. Some of the most intelligent people I've met are probably reading this text right now. If it gets to be differently, then A VERY intelligent person, has managed to fool us all, which is perfectly fine by me. I'd seriously laugh about it.

The real question that arises into my head for sometime now though (provided that what we anticipate about bitcoin turns out to be true) is this: Who is going to sell last?

It's almost next year.  ARE you still planning to retire?  Does your retirement depend on the price of BTC or the ability to predict the price?  If your retirement does depend on the price of BTC, what is that price, and is it realistic? 

In light of the topic of this thread, I am inclined towards buy and hold based on my thoughts that we can predict generally the upward trajectory of BTC prices, but we cannot really tell where they are going to be at any point in time.. but we seem to be able to predict with some degree of probability (and certainty) that BTC prices are going to be within a range of prices.

Accordingly, I think that i can give some tentative plans towards my being able to include bitcoin prices in my investment portfolio, but since BTC prices are so volatile (which is also within the expectations), I cannot keep too much wealth in BTC in order to rely upon its appreciation for my plan... but if it does appreciate at the high end of the range, then I can act upon that in order to preserve some of the value of the gains... and accordingly to be able to remove some of the volatility from my whole investment planning package.

It was a "necro" thread before Risto came along (thread necromancer? WTF???). So I owed him some kind of progression. TBH, a lot have changed since I first wrote this thread though; for instance I'm not exactly sure that the "system" is certified as "pure" chaotic or random or a mix of those two. Several thoughts have demented my brain and Jorge has made things even worse with his post (thank you dearly Jorge).

Me and Altoidnerd (yeah, the other crazy physicist here) have been into a lot of google talk chats and even started a project towards a "prediction model" that could imitate the intrinsic infrastructure of similar "systems"; for instance an equation prediction via a mathematical package (ie: Mathematica) of the price and predicting the next couple of minutes by taking the 1st derivative of the projected equation (explained 10 posts above).

Another idea is to build a system that could use a "set" of given equations that could be "pretty close" to the one that projects the value of USD/BTC per minute. Say for instance, is it a damped oscillation? Then load up equation #1. Is it a log equation? take #2 etc. Unfortunately, I'm way beyond my programming skills that I used to utilize a decade ago, and frankly my dear, I don't give a damn programming such a system for me or anyone else.

This project needs fresh brains, fast coding hands and A LOT of time to do it. I could provide the science -and a couple of BTCs maybe- to see it fulfilled; but that's that. So if any of you younger chaps feel the urge, please seize the opportunity. This may turn you into filthy (rich) or (at worse) with a brand new PhD thesis.

Cheers

I prefer to use the "watch" function for this to add it to the watchlist.

Thanks Room101, glad you like it.

interesting thread guys, thanks

Exactly, you have absolutely right. The thing is how small is "sufficiently small"...

Well; not one that I can recall or mathematically prove. What I could provide as a "proof" is that everything falls to a repetitive pattern that could very well be organized by "significant" participants. Maybe I got this thing wrong, but in complex problems, the best solutions are the simplest ones (Occam's Razor).

Thanks for your thoughts.
All the best
Costa, Greece

That only applies for "sufficiently small" displacements in the initial conditions.  If the state space is bounded (as in the double pendulum example), the initial displacement d must be less than R/(M * e^(LT)) where R is the domain radius.  Otherwise the d-neighborhood of the starting state will be not only stretched but also folded or rolled over itself, destroying the linear correlation.

Is there any evidence of any relation between future changes in price and past price history (other than the current price)?  I have tried looking for linear correlations in the case of bitcoin, but without success.  But that of course does not prove anything.

All the best, --jorge