Topic: Can Machine Learning truly predict Bitcoin's price? - page 3. (Read 548 times)

Hmm this is an interesting concept especially when you consider the computation of the algorithms which look for the most probable move but I doubt that it may be able to predict accurately the price of BTC.

Remember that the price of cryptocurrencies derive from several external and internal factors that can be outside the control of anyone. Even if machines take it into consideration, there will always be that +/- variable which can either make or break one's investment.

It can predict the price, that's for sure! We've done it and I'll share some screenshots tomorrow. We have trained a model using the past six months' hourly close candles, which is capable of predicting the next candle close. our work is not done yet.  

I agree that it's impossible to predict the price movements, but not due to whale manipulations. Who could've thought in February 2020, when the price was sitting comfortably at around $9k, that it will drop to $5k in the middle of next month due to the WHO announcing the pandemic? No machine learning could have taken into account this event from the world of medicine to predict the drop of the price because there are too many factors if we consider things like it. Bitcoin's price depends heavily on what's going on in the world. Not directly, of course, but due to all sorts of articles that appear online when this or that country introduces a restrictive bill, Musk tweets something positive or negative or something like a once-in-a-century pandemic hits the world.

Never heard like this before and i doubt there will be a machine programmed to predict bitcoin price with 100% accuracy and if there is then i think the creators of these machine will be so rich because they can able to predict further movements of bitcoin price however bitcoin price is unpredictable and you can predict use your own skill or using stuffs but the results will depend on the market itself

It's hard to believe such a thing exist you know. If people knew it is happening then Bitcoin trust will downfall, the price too. Who would ever bet on a game which they already know they will lose anyways. People with influence will be having those kind of information, the rich and powerful which will take advantage of the technology and in the end the mass get's poorer even more.

At least I am not convinced. It's just nonsense to believe that any machine or AI could predict Bitcoin price. Ask yourself who has been making all of this machine and artificial intelligence? Aren't they human? These all will work according to the program you install. AI or machines could calculate faster than you and me based on Algorithms. So if the programmer could take real-time decisions then how an AI could take. The price of Bitcoin depends on many things, not only a single fact. So it's impossible to predict Bitcoin price by AI or machine. Perhaps sometimes would be machine or near-miss but that's miracles, not a perfect prediction. Don't believe always what YouTubers saying, they about to earn money, they don't care about you really.

Hate to use a movie quote but:

"A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it."
- Agent K

That is why machine learning for trading will always fail, people can panic and be irrational at the smallest thing that is not at all relevant to the price of BTC, or anything else for that matter.
Big brokerage houses have spent tons of money working on it and although they do work somewhat they have also had some spectacular failures. That will not change. Over time it will get better and computers get faster and faster the same way they have over decades, but a group of people / investors panicking over something or getting excited and buying over something else. Nope, never going to happen.

-Dave

There's a lot of factors that concerns the price of Bitcoin and most of them are unpredictable and sudden things. Predicting the precise price of Bitcoin would very well mean that AI can predict our future. I know those youtube videos did research on the topic but most of them are theoretical and not practical.

Basically, it's impossible to predict the price of Bitcoin even if AI/ML have so much data.

I've watched it too. in my opinion not all videos on youtube provide correct and valid information. very easy to know the video is true or not. Are those who make videos very rich now with this AI and algorithm to predict bitcoin price?

This is not practically possible to determine the bitcoin prices with Artificial intelligence. The AI works well when you have the old data and there is the chance that same pattern may be repeated in the future which is not possible when it comes to bitcoin price.
We may input different patterns and predict the outcome but more often the trading patterns fail to execute in trading because of whales' manipulation.

if it's true and already existing for sure most people will provide immediately such bots to get the real direction of the prices in the market and surely no one will ignore on it! But you know when it comes internet especially youtube probably we can't really say easily if all of what they're saying is totally legit wherein since most of the influencer nowadays were making videos just to have a content on their channel..for me in my personal opinion it's hard to believe because if it's already existing maybe it's now popular and featured in some legitimate sites or news.. Just saying..

Unfortunately, the era for AI predicts bitcoin price volatility is not coming yet but it can happen in the future, especially if the technology is better than today. The AI can calculate what will happen with the price but still, it is hard to get a 100% possibility that the AI can predict with the right because the crypto market is something that is out of our expectations. The AI can gather all sources easily if the machine has the highest internet connection so AI can predict what will happen later and give a solution to us. But we need to wait for that era to come.

Any forecasting of prices in the cryptocurrency market is one of the likely events that may occur in the future. The price of a cryptocurrency can be influenced by the action of even one person who can put it up for sale or buy a large batch of cryptocurrency. Therefore, I do not think that any price forecasting can predict price movements in this market with any certainty.
For example, how many forecasts were there about the expected rise in prices at the end of this year. And all of them were not confirmed.

If it was possible to predict all financial markets by using algorithms,then any trader in the world would be using those algorithms and profiting and no one would be losing money from trading.This is ridiculous because trading on the financial markets is a zero sum game and the profit of one is the loss of another.
There are factors on the financial markets that cannot be predicted by any trading bot,AI or algorithm,like FUD news for instance.Can some AI bot read all FUD news and decide which ones are going to move the cryptocurrency prices and which ones are fake FUD?AI bots aren't that intelligent,aren't they.

Until now I have not found a machine that can predict the price of Bitcoin 100% accurately, what the machine predicts the results are not so far from
the prediction results that I do. So I don't need a machine to predict Bitcoin prices, because I just do my own research and analysis. But for people who
don't have time to monitor the market or don't have good analytical skills, there is nothing wrong with using the help of machines to predict the price of
Bitcoin. But it must be remembered not to rely too much on machines to predict Bitcoin prices, it will not make our analytical skills develop. We still have
to learn how to analyze correctly.

Exactly, There are many other things or news that can suddenly make the market move in the opposite direction and this has constantly happened in the market as we have witnessed in the past and I don't think that AIs and ML can detect that information before they happen. If the market wasn't manipulated sometimes maybe this is possible.

Predict bitcoin with AI? Hmm Interesting, and if it proves to be possible then I don't think bitcoin will be as popular as it is now because of the lack of trust of bitcoin users in the purity of fluctuations in the market.
If indeed AI can predict the price of bitcoin then how? While there are many algorithms related to bitcoin that cannot be calculated mathematically. For example political conditions, natural disasters, tragedies etc.

The fact that something like this could exist today will only be an indication that it enters to compete with other predictions based on traditional data because what would make it effective is not that you get the price right once, if not That it does it at the exact frequency at each moment and each instant, if that machine is capable of doing that, we would be in the presence of a quantum machine or describe it however you want, but such a thing is not possible today in the capacity to be exact.

The predictions in the financial markets are not defined only in the historical result or the comparative of the existing data, the "future" variable that depends on the individuals-companies that invest or withdraw money from the bitcoin environment is unpredictable, then although that unpredictable data can correct it at certain times based on the existing data, it has a degree of entropy so difficult to calculate that the AI not ​​could be close most of the time. In consecuense it would never be able to accurately predict the price with the corresponding continuity.

AI's problem is not about churning through data to find patterns.. its problem is the source of that data and amount of data it can get to churn through
if its not got much data to rely on, its not going to be very good at finding patterns

current bitcoin price is not about the ~19mill coins in circulation
its not about the number of coins deposited on exchanges. or the fiat deposited, just sat as unused balance.
its about the number of coins on a market order book, aswell as the amount of fiat on a market order book

but if you dont know how much coin/fiat is deposited ready to make an order along with the numbers of coin/fiat already on the market order book. then it becomes harder to 'predict' whats available to change in the near future.

EG if you cant access each exchanges bank deposit totals and coin store totals. you cant work out if there is masses of dollar waiting to order a small amount of coin on offer. or the opposite.

so although the market order book of most exchanges is public. and looking at the volume of each side can reveal something. without the extra data of what balance the exchanges is holding in total off the order book, predicting the next movement in direction cant be worked out to any accuracy

but with data about unused balances not yet on orderbook. it can help make predictions more accurate.

with more data like exchange customer online behaviour. EG time between depositing to making an order. how often they order. can help add more to the picture.. as it helps get more finer detail on demand timing
but this data has to be available to then be able to be used by AI

AI is only as good as the data it has available to sort through

If this is about truly 100% true, exactly no. If it is true exactly, there may be not really high diffefence of the rate.
Additionally, prediction is a prediction in which it may happen in exact time, in some time, or never also happen.
But at least commonly the tool will help us to predict the quite true rate at certain time based on the resistant, time framework, and also other indicators. So it will not be far away from what rate we have predicted.