Can The Future Value of Bitcoin be Predicted "Accurately" ? - page 2.

Herbert2020

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Quote from: coinlee on September 09, 2016, 09:27:17 AM

Hello Fellas and Bellas,

I'm trying to firstly conceptualize and then hopefully create an accurate Bitcoin Future Valuation tool of some sort. It would essentially be a tool that lets you "scientifically" and accurately forecast the Value/Price of 1 Bitcoin (and X amount of Bitcoins) in regards to the short,mid and long term future. It would obviously use specific metrics coupled with real-time market sentiment readings which would cause real-time fluctuation/ramifications to the future Valuations .

But i want to ask, is this even possible? I know predicting the future of ANYTHING is deemed impossible but at the very best i am trying to create something that can classed as REALISTIC in terms of the future projections it provides.

Your thoughts?

i would love to see your tool and see how it works, especially if you make it open source that would be the best thing.

but it is not possible to make it automated so that the code lets you "scientifically" and accurately forecast the price. it is already too hard to do it on your own by watching and analyzing the charts on your own.

besides the history is not (real-time market sentiment readings) is not always the most correct thing to use because there are times when a single news can change everything with bitcoin.

also i think you are talking about a very short term prediction kind of thing which is maybe possible rather than a medium term being hardest and long term being the easiest.

delliaerd

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Quote from: Snorek on September 09, 2016, 10:44:52 PM

Short answer: No, price of Bitcoin or any other crypto can't be accurately predicted.

We might try to do it, some predictions might be even accurate, but they are not backed by any real knowledge, they are simply hit or miss assumptions.

Bitcoin market is too volatile to be evaluated in normal way - like FIAT currency is. All we can tell that bitcoin value will rise over time. How much and when? No one knows.

Yeah dude I couldn't agree more with you, it is so hard to predict the price of crypto currency precisely. Because there no valid information that we can predict
Besed from that.

genos

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Quote from: digaran on September 09, 2016, 07:25:19 PM

You will never be able to predict the price but one thing is for sure that you can tell what difficulty if hash power is determined.
And there is no doubt about bitcoin increasing price in the future at least we can can depend on it.

Yes I am agree with you no one can predict bitcoin price. It depend of the market. But I knew some one said that bitcoin lokal price is just following bitcoin internatiol price

ebliever

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1. Define "accurately". Within what range?

2. To predict the value of bitcoin accurately is rather simple. All you need to know are all the inputs that have a bearing on the value of bitcoin relative to your chosen benchmark. So going from the baseline of a known fact - the current price and current economic factors - all you need to know is 100% of future economic factors such as the pace of bitcoin adoption globally, macroeconomic factors affecting the value of your benchmark, a detailed grasp of the impact of all future economic crises (including timing, scope, severity and government response to each), all legal changes impacting the adoption of bitcoin in every country by individuals and business, the advertising plans and impact of companies in the bitcoinspace working to mainstream bitcoin, the plans, timing and success of every technological endeavor related to bitcoin protocol and ecosystem improvements, all future bitcoin heists and scams of significance, etc. ad infinitum.

Like I said, easy peasy. If you're God.

hajimasan

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Quote from: coinlee on September 09, 2016, 09:27:17 AM

Hello Fellas and Bellas,

I'm trying to firstly conceptualize and then hopefully create an accurate Bitcoin Future Valuation tool of some sort. It would essentially be a tool that lets you "scientifically" and accurately forecast the Value/Price of 1 Bitcoin (and X amount of Bitcoins) in regards to the short,mid and long term future. It would obviously use specific metrics coupled with real-time market sentiment readings which would cause real-time fluctuation/ramifications to the future Valuations .

But i want to ask, is this even possible? I know predicting the future of ANYTHING is deemed impossible but at the very best i am trying to create something that can classed as REALISTIC in terms of the future projections it provides.

Your thoughts?

in my opinion there is no chance of predict the btc price until the next halving comes . because after nezt halving there will be no mining of btc ( information was given by the news sites during last halving ) .

Viyamore

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No , we can't predict it accurately ,because bitcoin price value always depends on the Blocks and fluctuations made by the users .its something that very hard to predict what will be the its bitcoin value in the future ,but we can estimate its value nearly from time to time on bitcoin halving seasons. Only one thing for sure that the future of bitcoin is also too unpredictable .we can't control the market fluctuation unless we have the most stocks of bitcoins that in a single buying or selling we can control a big portion of its value.

Snorek

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Short answer: No, price of Bitcoin or any other crypto can't be accurately predicted.

We might try to do it, some predictions might be even accurate, but they are not backed by any real knowledge, they are simply hit or miss assumptions.

Bitcoin market is too volatile to be evaluated in normal way - like FIAT currency is. All we can tell that bitcoin value will rise over time. How much and when? No one knows.

pooya87

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it depends on your definition of "Accurately".
if you mean with some room for error and some range then i guess it can be possible but definitely not easy. bitcoin price unlike other commodities with price like stocks or gold,... is not exactly following technical analysis and is being affected by many different factors that makes is tough to predict.

Cast12

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The future value of Bitcoin can't be predicted accurately, like any other market. Sure you can predict if the price will go up or down, but you may be wrong most of the time.

Yakamoto

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It's basically impossible to determine the future value of bitcoin because chances are there are going to be more pseudo-random market fluctuations over the next few months (let along years or decades). These movements are brought on by news or just how the market feels in general, and because of this there are no real ways you can track the market and understand what is going to happen next. Just look at the past week if you don't believe me; no-one was really predicting the rise that happened.

shinratensei_

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Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Quote from: coinlee on September 09, 2016, 09:27:17 AM

Hello Fellas and Bellas,

I'm trying to firstly conceptualize and then hopefully create an accurate Bitcoin Future Valuation tool of some sort. It would essentially be a tool that lets you "scientifically" and accurately forecast the Value/Price of 1 Bitcoin (and X amount of Bitcoins) in regards to the short,mid and long term future. It would obviously use specific metrics coupled with real-time market sentiment readings which would cause real-time fluctuation/ramifications to the future Valuations .

But i want to ask, is this even possible? I know predicting the future of ANYTHING is deemed impossible but at the very best i am trying to create something that can classed as REALISTIC in terms of the future projections it provides.

Your thoughts?

That's possible,predict is will be better if you don't out from the road of the realistic things, and you need for considering a lot of factor before making your predict, will the people is seeing your predicted is not just a trump.
Well applied in your concept and your tool.

Indrawan77

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It is impossible to predict 100% accurate, if you can predict 100% accurately, you will be rich, for a short term prediction maybe can be predicted accurately until 60%, but for a long term its impossible to predict accurately because anything can happen

Johann Sebastian Bach

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Impossible even if you had the formulas and whatever theoretical background that you needed to cover it, I’m pretty sure that the computational power that you will need is enormous and is simply unavailable to you or anyone for that matter.

jhenfelipe

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Maybe you can get somewhat real results, but not an accurate one. Everything that will happen in the future is actually unpredictable. What we can do is just predict and go with the flow, it's just a guess. Let's assume that your data comes from facts like as you have said, "real time market sentiments" but it can't guarantee you or anybody of an accurate data for the future.

Xester

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Maybe. But it is more of 90% impossible. Even if you are a genius with all the formulas and scientific method combined it is impossible for us to "accurately" predict the value of bitcoin. Just like in stock market, a very high price then just a matter of a second it would collapse. But if you want to formulate what would be the value of a bitcoin on a date you could do so. Maybe it could help someone to predict the value of a bitcoin and it could be a guideline. Good luck!

fenican

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no

digaran

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🖤😏

You will never be able to predict the price but one thing is for sure that you can tell what difficulty if hash power is determined.
And there is no doubt about bitcoin increasing price in the future at least we can can depend on it.

danherbias07

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Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

It is a good project but it cant be done. Even if you will have all the statistics and bitcoin usage of each exchange site and wallet sites it is still not possible.
There are people who kept their money in core wallet and you wont know when they will use it.
There have been a lot of users now also so it changes a lot, you can add the gamblers too.

Even the wallet exchanges have different prices of bitcoin everyday, some have a higher price and most are lower.

gentlemand

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Welt Am Draht

An admirable idea but totally impossible. http://worldbitcoinnetwork.com/BitcoinPriceModel-Alpha.html this is about as close as anyone's going to get.

Senor.Bla

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many have tried and many have failed. would be a surprise if you could manage. this would make you rich and you could also use it on other currencys and stocks. but i think it is scientifically proven, that you are not able to predict a price anyway.

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