The same negative trend also applies to housing loan markets.
While many contractual loans are failing at historically high rates. Could there be an eventual upside in terms of car and real estate assets becoming more affordable within the foreseeable future?
It has recently been acknowledged that used car prices are downtrending sharply at a record rate, (I think) in correlation with the elevated rate of failing car loans.
Cox Automotive said Wednesday that its Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, which tracks prices of used vehicles sold at its U.S. wholesale auctions, has declined 15.6% from record levels in January through November. The index dropped to 199.4 last month, below 200 for the first time since August 2021, and is down 14.2% from the same month a year ago. It marks the sixth-consecutive month of declines.
Perhaps we will likewise see real estate market values fall within a similar trend, which would make living space more affordable for many current full time employees who cannot afford it.
Unfortunately, there could be another trend in play here. Cars and living space might increasingly become deflationary in supply. It has been reported that US automakers are inching nearer to bankruptcy. Which could result in overall scarcity of car supply, if production and competition decline.
Similar trends could also apply to US real estate markets. Where influxes of immigration could contribute towards real estate and living space becoming increasingly scarce and limited in supply.
But in the short term, from the chart above we can see that used car prices are declining and perhaps that will correlate with long term market trends to make transportation and living space more affordable.
It happens in the downwards move of every economic cycle. What I find curious is that yes, there has been a decline in second hand car sales this year, but judging by the graph they are still massively above what they were in 2019 before the Covid pandemic. This points to supply chain issues as well, where it is simply harder to source newer cars so many people are returning to the second hand car market which pushed prices up in that sector. Things are starting to normalize for now but China is currently in the midst of a massive spike in Covid cases after loosening the rules, so we may find that supply chains again get crippled with potentially hundreds of millions of works in the "factory of the world" being ill.