Your Kelly sample is fine and each casino owner will/should know this. his table maximum is 6.7 and this should tell us that he had or should have 250 BTC bankroll
That's OK, but what if 30 people all try to bet 6.7 BTC on red on the same roll? Maybe he limits the total bets per spin, not just bets per player, I don't know.
that is the reason why all casinos have more than one roulette table running. and they need to have a much bigger bankroll.
I still didnt understand why investors gave him the money? how could they be sure that they will get their invested money plus interest back? could some one point me to the right link or explain it.
thanks
On a side note, in the beginning of the investment scheme before all the investment took place, he was accepting bets which were uncoverable by the bankroll at all. He had a bankroll of just a few btc (like 15-20btc) and his max bets were 2.7btc (as they are now). So I very much doubt it he has any actual risk control in place or even thought about it. Some users asked him what will happen if someone wins and he said he will borrow the bitcoins from someone to do the payout.
@bit777
I see max bet 6.7 right now. but it doesnt matter because if he couldnt pay out the winners the max doesnt matter. but at least he was honest to say that he doesnt have the money for worst case scenario. so how comes that people played and/or invested there
The worst case scenario for the 6.7 table max is that a number of players bet a total of 6.7 on a single number and it hits. That would require a total of 234.5 to be paid out, which should only be 2.7% of the bankroll (you would need a bankroll of 8,685)! If you take that same scenario, but there were 10 other numbers maxed out, you would take in an additional 67, making the payout only a net of 167.5, so you could allow that with a smaller bankroll ("only" 6,204).
I don't think there is a general formula; you have to ensure that the worst case on each spin will only risk 2.7% of the bankroll. It's probably easiest to recalculate all of the possible payouts and then recalculate the max bet for each possible bet after each bet is placed. Then you can display that when they hover over that bet and not allow more than that to be placed. If many bets are placed, the max on a single number may very well go up, since you have offsetting bets from other numbers (assuming bets are final and can't be removed). The math is not that complex; it is essentially instant on a modern CPU.
Ideally the interface could be much better. If you could get it closer to a real roulette table where you have chips that are a value of the player's choosing and they could simply click to drop chips on that bet, that would be a much better experience for the player. If you could update in real time the other player's bets for that spin, that would be even better (you would have to limit that depending on the number of simultaneous players).
Maybe it's time for me to develop one...