Topic: Cause of MtGox exchange rate rise? - page 2. (Read 5296 times)
It's possible someone's running a trading bot, well designed or not, to automate bids and sells and try to take advantage of market fluctuations.
Every fast rise and fall must be manipulated! OMG!
You're right, maybe. I haven't monitored previous fast rises /falls though.
I wouldn't talk of manipulation if sell and buy bids had not been so close during the rise. I understand if the price goes up because there is a rush on bitcoins for any reason. But I don't understand why the rise in price on the asking side was so closely followed by a rise in price on the bidding side with offers not matching (and large volumes). I do not understand why one would not match his bid to another bid that is only 0.1% away from his. Can you see any reason ?
You may just try to drop the exchange rate back if it was really manipulated. 
I've just assessed that would require around 1500 btc, which I don't have. You can send your donations at the address abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz0123456789
Yeah! 
Wow! Cool!
I looked at the diagram of rate BTC/USB on mtgox yesterday when it surged by 0.08 points. Really, instantly dollars rate moved up with Bid offers at amount of approximately 1500 BTC
Think we should look at the history of order book at sites that provide such statistics. May be bitcoincharts.com can show 3D diagram of market depth for such interval of time?
Think we should look at the history of order book at sites that provide such statistics. May be bitcoincharts.com can show 3D diagram of market depth for such interval of time?
You may just try to drop the exchange rate back if it was really manipulated.
There has been quite a strange rise in MtGox exchange rate today, from approx 0.745-.765 to .8-.81.
I say strange for a good number of reasons, one was the speed at which the rise occured.
Looks also strange to me that the difference between bidding and asking sides was approx .02 btc relatively constantly (with a 0,65% fee, i.e. approx. 0.005 btc), and now the difference is only 0.001 btc. The difference between first offers of the asking and bidding sides is now so low (ask : .81 ; bid : .80901, i.e. 0.12%), that I can't see the point of making an offer so close to the other without matching them if you really want to buy or sell
(such a small difference is well under exchange fees or usual variation of the price). Can someone see a reason ?Moreover the volumes implied in the first offers on both asking and bidding sides are quite big (~ 400 btc) considering the relatively low volumes that have been exchanged on MtGox for a moment (ask : .81, vol. 339.44 ; bid : .80901, vol. 419.74), whereas there were before usually under 50 btc.
This concretely "forces" the price to remain between .80901 and .81, which is equivalent to setting the price to .81. .The only reason I can see for not matching bid and ask offers while they are so close would be that it is the same person or a coordinated group of persons with 1000+ btc behind the offers on both sides, doing this in order to drive the price as desired. Seems to me the price was driven to the actual level in a few stages using this technique :
1. Buy all bitcoins up to the desired price,
2. Propose the lowest ask price with a large volume,
3. Propose the highest bid price with a large volume at a price very close to ask price so as to closely surround the price,
4. Wait until everyone updates his offers, including automated robots,
5. and repeat a few times until desired price is reached.
Do you think MtGox exchange rate is artificially moved ? Are there any known techniques for doing so ? In which ways could moving the market be profitable ?
I wonder how many distinct active MtGox users there are, and I wonder how wealth is distributed among those users. That would give a good idea of how the market can be manipulated. Any clues on this ?
Every fast rise and fall must be manipulated! OMG!
Do you think MtGox exchange rate is artificially moved ?
Perhaps the rise is because funds added to Mt. Gox (sent after seeing the prices the $0.70s last week) have finally reached Mt. Gox?
It is trivial to manipulate the price in Mt. Gox, ... if you have the bank and tolerance for risk.
More is described here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.32962
and
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.65056
There has been quite a strange rise in MtGox exchange rate today, from approx 0.745-.765 to .8-.81.
I say strange for a good number of reasons, one was the speed at which the rise occured.
Looks also strange to me that the difference between bidding and asking sides was approx .02 btc relatively constantly (with a 0,65% fee, i.e. approx. 0.005 btc), and now the difference is only 0.001 btc. The difference between first offers of the asking and bidding sides is now so low (ask : .81 ; bid : .80901, i.e. 0.12%), that I can't see the point of making an offer so close to the other without matching them if you really want to buy or sell
(such a small difference is well under exchange fees or usual variation of the price). Can someone see a reason ?Moreover the volumes implied in the first offers on both asking and bidding sides are quite big (~ 400 btc) considering the relatively low volumes that have been exchanged on MtGox for a moment (ask : .81, vol. 339.44 ; bid : .80901, vol. 419.74), whereas there were before usually under 50 btc.
This concretely "forces" the price to remain between .80901 and .81, which is equivalent to setting the price to .81. .The only reason I can see for not matching bid and ask offers while they are so close would be that it is the same person or a coordinated group of persons with 1000+ btc behind the offers on both sides, doing this in order to drive the price as desired. Seems to me the price was driven to the actual level in a few stages using this technique :
1. Buy all bitcoins up to the desired price,
2. Propose the lowest ask price with a large volume,
3. Propose the highest bid price with a large volume at a price very close to ask price so as to closely surround the price,
4. Wait until everyone updates his offers, including automated robots,
5. and repeat a few times until desired price is reached.
Do you think MtGox exchange rate is artificially moved ? Are there any known techniques for doing so ? In which ways could moving the market be profitable ?
I wonder how many distinct active MtGox users there are, and I wonder how wealth is distributed among those users. That would give a good idea of how the market can be manipulated. Any clues on this ?
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