Topic: CB Consumer Confidence delivers another blow on the US and USD (Read 192 times)

I would believe that just because of some drops and increases, there shouldn't be really a prediction about it short term because it could repeat both of them if it wants to. It could go down from here, it could go up from here too, we wouldn't really know which one will happen. I think it is important to know the difference one way or another and it should be important without a doubt to be careful about it.

I personally wouldn't risk anything, it would be risky and terrible if we did, so we should be careful about it. I understand that some people could end up with a result that would be profitable, but even if you ended up profitable, doesn't mean next one will be profitable neither, so be careful about it.

Correlation does not imply causation and you know that all too well, the first one was just a coincidence, and the second one regarding unemployment is simply a no-go since the drop happened well before the numbers were released. I will not deny that major indexes do trigger shock waves in Bitcoin price, but I also don't think any of the small ones actually have even the tiniest effect, a rate rise or inflation going beyond prediction both ways will for sure do, I stated that myself numerous times arguing with guys that thought Bitcoin is immune to those, but for things like consumer indexes, no that really doesn't matter.

The pump was triggered by the court ruling, denying this when every single graph details this to the minute, sorry, it's just denial!

Just to make sure, I do believe that market news about indexes influences the market because they paint the picture of the economy which is basically the only thing that matters when it comes to money, but a consumer index triggering a nearly 15% while not even rate rise or inflation data being able to move it by more than 5% lately in the last few months is just a no.

I quite understand you on this, and one thing I've noticed is that when something happens to the market, especially when events happen at the same time, people tend to tell different or conflicting stories. Well, I have been a trader for many years, I didn't just start during this cryptocurrency era, so I followed my news and technical analysis promptly. And during that news in the OP, the USD was dumped massively across the board, not only in Bitcoin. How come would Bitcoin case is the only difference?

It happened to all markets where other assets appreciated against the USD, which EFT news is not capable of. This started exactly at 3:00 PM GMT+1 and buttresses a valid and constructive point as the chart is there for confirmation. But I am yet to see anyone who claimed that it's EFT news to come forward to tell us the time the court news was delivered. They are only pointing to media articles which may or may not be true. Even if it's true, then it could be as you said, (my suggested news+the EFT news), not that it must be the EFT news alone.

You should know better how such news reacts, the market could be delusional, and of course dynamic at the same time, so it reacts for a moment in some cases. What I pointed to wasn't an everlasting market reaction but a narration of what happened in the market, how the market viewed it and what caused it. Whether it's a lasting one or not, it doesn't matter, even the market psychology and other news thereafter determine what happened thereafter.

Personally, I took my profit on that day before the close of the market, which means that I enjoyed it as it lasted. There is conflicting news released for the US after the OP, so what do you expect? The last important one was the Unemployment Claims which favoured the US. Did you expect Bitcoin to continue climbing after such news? I guess not.

Lastly, there is still important news like the Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate and ISM manufacturing PMI. If possible, they will distort the market once more today, and the news is expected to be released between 1:30 PM and 3:00 PM GMT+1. I don't expect the market to remain the same after it simply because of what I wrote in the OP.

One day later how does this "alternative" look?  
As we're back at 26k it's clear what it was, a pump triggered by some good news and then the cold reality that Graysacale is just in line for 2024 events, so basically nothing really changed, there was no influx of money, there was no real volume behind it, there was no constant demand even for a day!

As for the consumer index while the drop is indeed serious it also comes on a massive jump that again nobody was expecting.
As adaseb said, look at the numbers for May: Forecast 99.0 Actual 102.5
Or look at a larger interval, 2006-2016 for example, the index never went above current levels!
From the 1970 till 2000 it was more below 100 points than above them!
China's index is below 100, the EU is the same, lack of consumer optimism doesn't mean people rushing to invest in risky assets, quite the opposite.

You have highlighted a valid point that Consumer confidence can fluctuate from month to month, and it is a sentiment-based indicator, often reflecting the perceptions of the people about economy rather than its real performance. In order to get comprehensive picture of economy, it is important to look at range of economic indicators, such as employment data, GDP growth, inflation rates and consumer spending.

This Consumer confidence doesn’t really mean anything. Go look at May data and it was lower than last months. And a year was also pretty low. I don’t think this had anything to do with bitcoins moves.

Right now economy is still good. People are working, buying cars, traveling and inflation is still an issue. The confidence will probably tank once we are in a confirmed recession. Which could be a year away from now.

BlackRock has very good rate of success for their ETF submissions. The failure rate is 1/600 that is very low and the market looks at BlackRock with hope that if BlackRock did not see good opportunity to get approval from SEC for a first Bitcoin Spot ETF in the USA., they will not send their submission to SEC.

They already sent it to SEC. and will go more seriously with it before getting an approval. The market also hope that if BlackRock succeed, they will open a new era for Bitcoin and investors in the USA. from traditional markets, will more easily get access to Bitcoin. Bigger capital will flow in Bitcoin and in any market, when new capital flows in, price would soar a lot.

I see this may be one of the reasons we can trace to the sudden spike in the bitcoin price and the economy at large, but considering it as a long term effect may not be well applicable here because things like this may not really be the major cause to market shift, nevertheless, we cannot overlooked on the role on consumers in an economy, aside this, some had already stated that the market rise was due the spot ETF breaking news, having known all these, it's very important to know that the consumer role in the aspect of a country's economy is very vital, these are part of what constitute to the demand and supply we have over bitcoin as we see in it price movement either to go bull or bear.

This news is certainly negative development for US economy and consequently affecting the Dollar index. However, it is interesting to note that it didn't make any good impact on Bitcoin price either. I could be mistaken, but from my perspective, substantial upwards move in Bitcoin price might not occur until regulatory concerns with Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are adequately addressed and positive news regarding approval of ETFs emerges from major players like BlackRock.

Honestly it is not a big shocker, this is what people expected to begin with, and when you expect a blow, it is not a blow at that point. Everyone knew that this would happen and that is exactly what has happened. When inflation is super high, people want to buy stuff before it gets even more expensive, when you activate counter measures to drop the inflation, that means they are not going to end up buying that much because they know it will be about the same price in 6 months as well, so the spending drops.

This is what has happened here, and I guess it should not be abnormal for it to happen, I believe it would be normal and not a big deal, I believe it is normal without a doubt. I hope market recovers from this.

I thought the title was sort of clickbait, as there are several threads in this section talking about the supposed weakness of the USD and how some countries are trying to dethrone it by trading with their alternative currencies, but maybe that's not the point the OP was trying to make.

But after reading the OP I see that this is not the case, the US economy is simply not very buoyant, but that does not mean that those who want to dethrone the dollar are better off.

As Captain Corporate says this is also happening in his country, and in Europe too (I don't know where he is from).


So far it has not done very well, in this cycle all predictions of much higher price peaks failed. It simply seems that bitcoin is behaving like any other asset, and when there is a crisis people tend to sell assets to obtain liquidity.

You will always see them logical if you look at those events and reports. If you don't look at them, you will see Bitcoin price moves logically too.

Difference between look at those events, reports, figures or don't look at them, is your psychology is more chaotic, unstable for a former and is more stable, calm with the latter.

Because economic growths, policies and regulations need time to be reflected in societies, economy but with such news, price reacts instantly. While we know that some times what we expect from a new policy today can be very different or opposite in future, after a few months.

Why is this good news for Bitcoin? Bitcoin isn't getting more valuable because of this, the USD is simply getting less valuable, which means that
the people would need more USD to buy less BTC. I wonder why the economics were expecting a rise in the Consumer Confidence index, after all the interest rate hikes and quantitative easing restrictions imposed by the Federal Reserve. This doesn't make any sense.
The US economy might be heading towards a recession, which definitely cannot help for pumping Bitcoin and altcoin prices.
I don't mind such negative macroeconomic news. The US economy has been pumped by money printing and cheap interest rates for decades.
Now, it's time for higher interest rates and severe financial discipline. Those multi-billion debts will have to be repaid.

Thank goodness you defined the first line based on your understanding, maybe you should learn more to improve the understanding of why people spend less, borrow less but invest more in some certain economy. And you think crypto is not part of the assets they can invest in at those times? That's laughable my friend.

For the second part, you disappointed me for fully trusting the media for what happened, haven't you seen instances that different media outlets explain different reasons for what happened? Besides, I defined my own exact time, but I couldn't see a time defined on the link you provided, I only saw a date. Bitcoin started climbing at my own defined time which is also the time the CB Consumer Confidence was released. Not only Bitcoin but gold and other assets soared against the USD at the same time and in the same manner. The USD was dumped massively across the market board, and you think Bitcoin's case will be different? Or do you think a merely crypto lawsuit will affect the whole market board like that?

This is also laughable.

That is the market for you and if you see the order books, it often changes and could change massively in a very few seconds. The market sentiment is never fixed or holds a disposition for a very long time, which is why the market is always dynamic. The majority might support the USD this minute, and before you know it, the majority might be dumping it. They are always reacting to the prevailing sentiment of the market which is orchestrated by rumours, news, and economic, political and technical speculative influences.

The numbers were predictable based on credit card debt metrics alone: https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/08/economy/us-household-credit-card-debt/index.html

Inflation adjusted, there still was a massive upward trend in the amount of credit card debt people are holding meaning there's a debt crisis brewing in conjunction with stagflation. Bitcoin surged as of late but I'm still worried what a global recession would do to the price of all assets. I suppose the recovery is what counts.

Maybe thats because people are poor? Or at least should I say poorer. I mean inflation made the prices of everything go up like crazy, but our income did not go up with it and now we are in ton of debt just from living a normal life. In my nation it is nearly impossible to just pay the rent, the bills, the food, and whatever that is needed to survive, that's it. I am not even talking about living a rich life or anything, I am talking about just the basic needs of human life to continue, and even that is expensive enough that we go into debt from it. Incomes do not go up tenfold overnight when inflation does, I make double what I used to make, even more if we go back further, and my spending is maybe five times what it used to be, so we are poorer and we can't spend on anything but what MUST be bought, like absolutely necessary, anything else became luxury.

Economists, meaning Keynesians? They are so bad at predicting these moves and they really have no idea how to tackle inflation. They think that they can keep printing when in doubt and it will keep the country afloat and away from a recession. That as long as the government keeps spending the money it doesn't have everything will be fine. In other words fake it till you make it.
Powell allowed printing to supply Ukraine even when the inflation was already high and they were tackling it by increasing rates, which proves he was putting the fire out with one hand and adding gasoline with the other.
The "blows" will keep coming until someone competent takes place of these morons.

This news might have some impact on the price of BTC but I do not think that many people might keep track of this factor. Because market is full of new comers now. And those new comers will loss money and make profit too. Some will praise it some will curse the market. But at the end to satisfy our hearts people will say we did not calculated that factor and that factor. Overall, I personally do not think that grayscale could produce that instant up trend in the market but if we see from different angles then one will agree that it (Grayscale's News) really have some impact on the market.

I am agreed with you on interest towards USD. I mean few days ago people were investing in USD and now we think they are no more interested in USD that's why they are shifting towards BTC now. I mean why people changes there sentiments so quickly.

It is very hard to find the exact sentiments because as Faisal2202 said, it might be a domino effect which was used to elaborate things out when market dumped and now we could also use it when market pumped.

When market crashed on 7th August people said (including me) these are the factors of this decline some say Elon is behind it some say that and some said this. But at the end most of the members agreed that some fact, news or factors started a domino effect and thus market kept crashing.

And not the same thing is also happening I mean, when market pumped to $27600, yesterday. I got the notification then I read this new from OmegaStarScream and before reading this news. I already saw a on an article that the reason of this pump is the same as you explained in the last para: which is the same as OSS mentioned.

Point is, let's observe these factor from our common sense and let's face the facts that what might have more impact then this or between these.

Besides the fact that a huge accumulation was done just few days ago from whales. Like they collected a huge amount of BTC which might be a reason of it too. Then after this pump a news came in which Elon say twitter AKA X will be used to accept and pay with BTC. And many other short news came but the first news I heard at that time is about Grayscale so I think it might be behind it which urges people. (I might be wrong but let's hear from others).

Based on my understanding a decline in customer confidence is not good for any sector including the crypto industry. When consumers lack optimism about the condition of a country’s economy, it limits investments spending, and savings. A pessimistic consumer is not concerned about investment but focuses on surviving the predicted economic downturn. Consumers might indeed want to switch dollars for Bitcoin but I doubt if it was the sole cause of the price increase. An economy that is not healthy cannot lead to an increase in the price of Bitcoin because people don't have money to invest.

According to Cointelegraph the perceived reasons for the gains in the price of bitcoin is the favorable court judgment Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC)/got against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) a United States Court of Appeals. It is also suspected that the price went up because the bitcoin exchange supply is dropping to the lowest since January 2018.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/why-is-bitcoin-price-up-today