So you have totally failed to prove your point, you claimed a 50% premium and it is nowhere close to anything like that. In fact currently because of the price of BTC it is probably cheaper buying KSH vs setting up ASICs unless you are setting up a large amount. However in the land of scrypt it remains to be seen how well ASIC will do as many coins are moving away from scrypt. For 1 MHS you are going to have to work and take some risk to stay under $700. (Actually your 150% would currently be $675)
Even your best claimed prices that I can't find in your listing don't get you there. (3 * $160 + $100 = $580, far less than 50% you claim)
It seems like you didn't even look at the websites I mentioned, so I'll post more details just in case you are really interested (which I'm starting to doubt) in the correct math :
http://hashra.com/gridseedx20/ 7.2 MH/s, $3300 + $100 PSU (which is an overkill for 20, but let's be generous here), free shipping
$3400/7200 = $472 per MH/s
Or a single one (360 KH/s) + power supply here for $166:
http://www.gawminers.com/300-kh-s-single-gridseed-asic-miner/$166/0.360 = $461 per MH/s
GPU math is somewhat similar regarding $ per MH/s, but power consumption is a factor there, so presumably the premium would be more in favor of cloud hashing with cheap power supply.
In the end the premium doesn't mean anything because what matters is how much you can sell the KHS for. The reason why CEX is moving to scrypt coins is because the impact of ASICs is different and profits will last longer. Multipool GPU miners can switch coins where as ASIC miners will be trapped possible just on LTC in the future. LTC will end up being like bitcoin. However when you are dealing with a basket of coins you don't have the rapid increases in difficulty. However, the few coins the current generation of ASIC miners are left will quickly see difficulty raise.
A huge advantage scrypt.cc currently has is cheap power in Brazil. I don't know were CEX.io will end up with the altcoin mining, it will be interesting to see.
When the Gridseed miners started showing up there was a slight reduction in profits for a week or two. There were a few days we didn't make the .5% a day, but were close. Scrypt.cc responded by picking up some scrypt-N coins and for the last couple weeks we have been beatting .6% a day. I don't expect that to last but at this point my breakeven point is less than 1 BTC / MHS. That is a huge advantage of GPUs over ASICs. GPUs can quickly adapt. At this I could easily pull out with better than 30% profits for two months and it gets better every day. You simple can't do that when you are running the hardware.
There may come a time when ASICs are likely in control in the altcoins, but we are many months if not years away from that. Right now going down the ASIC path is risky at best and locking yourself into declining profits.
You're making some assumptions - which is ok - but I would disagree that this is the only way this can play out. First of all, anyone can mine on a coin switching pool, you don't have to be on scrypt.cc to do that. In fact with scrypt.cc you are locked into their pool, which is a disadvantage compared to owning a rig, which I can point to anything I want at any time. True, ASICs can't mine anything except plain Scrypt (not only LTC though), but it's somewhat naive to believe that when Scrypt becomes unprofitable all other GPU miners will just give up and only scrypt.cc will remain profitable. Major multipools will invest in the same coin changes that you mention and profitability will remain low unless there is a significant rebound in BTC price (which again would affect everyone equally). With ASICs you would at least have power consumption advantage, which can keep them viable for a lot longer.
Cute you just change your argument. You were talking about setting up 1 MHS and then you use the math for 6.67 MHS. But you still totally are totally missing the point and the value of the cloud. If you have multiple thousands to spend you can always get cheaper MHS with hardware, but most people that are using cloud services aren't able to do that. Yes it is cheaper per MHS to set up a large operation, but that never was the point. With a place like scrypt.cc you can start small and build, you can't easily do that with hardware. For example for $.75 you can get a KHS and start collecting 4 to 5 satoshi's every 10 minutes. What can you do with $.75 and ASICs?
Point two - Yes you can point your hardware at different pools. It takes time to determine which pool to use and it costs (lost coins) to switch pools. I also have done some physical mining when I was starting out, but mostly I don't do it because I don't have the space or the cheap power where I live. Even ASICs require power. But the major multi-pools don't pay as well as scrypt.cc has been paying. I don't know where CEX.io is in this yet. As I mentioned I've been getting better than .6% a day lately, the multipools are mostly below that:
http://poolpicker.eu/ Yes, I know this can change at any time. But I'm not locked in, I can always sell my KHS.
However again you are missing the point. I never said or implied that ONLY scrypt.cc will be profitable, I said that ASICs will be on a much steeper declining profit curve, just like bitcoin. That is the real problem with them, you have to break even and make money fast because you don't have much time to do it. At this point I don't buy GHS at CEX.io because it is on the same losing curve as ASICs are for bitcoin. However in the altcoin world things are different at least for now. I'm sure that is why CEX.io is moving into altcoins.
It doesn't matter what path you take, there are tradeoffs.
- If you have large amounts of money up front you can build more hashing power for less cost. (Although you are still short of your 50% premium at least with scrypt.cc) However you have to make your money fast because you are locked in. It is also a huge investment in time and you carry all the risks.
- With the cloud, it can be more expensive pre unit of hashing, but as long as you avoid contracts you aren't locked in and you can move as needed without losing your investment, but you have to pay attention to what is going on. The key risk is finding a provider that is real and not a scam. The main advantage is you can play with small amount or very large amounts. I know one guy (larger than me) that started at scrypt.cc with around 60 BTC and is doing very well.
Neither approach is a sure thing. However at this point I have a lot more MHS than the 6.67 in your example for less cost because I've been reinvesting. That is much harder to pull off with hardware. My current cost is around 1.2 BTC per MHS and each MHS is currently returning .0094 BTC/day. That is without trading. At CEX.io I never was able to consistently profit with GHS. I don't know how the new stuff will work out there.