OK, one update for noob traders like myself - there's a better chart to watch than the cex.io website. Very informative. I thank the trollbox for that. I'm sure there are even better charts out there and some traders have bots charting for them based on the api...
http://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/cexio/ghsbtc
Oh, and another thing - some traders in the trollbox were setting up a pump-and-dump circle against the bots. So if they can do it out in the open (unless it's a scam), I'm sure there's much more going on behind the scenes with players who hold real power.
Topic: CEX.IO please give some hints. (Read 3726 times)
As I had the same problem, there I used "instant buy" and basically traded only on the sales (tactic was to buy weak spots and hope to sell into strenght, using only plain vanilla basic daily/hourly trends).
The only thing it needs is successful trading, but if we all were good at it most of the time we'd be filthy rich and talk about the DOW/NYSE instead of cex.io 
Heh. See what you mean. So I've lost my first couple of bucks on a couple of trades. I see the benefits of the platform because it allows people to practice trading with negligible risk.
Another dumb question. I couldn't figure out what is the best way to calculate the buy orders. Sell orders are easy because you see how many GHs you have. With buy orders I kind of had to bring up a calculator and see how many GHs I can afford - is there an easier way of doing it?
Thank you.
At the moment GHs is trading at roughly .04 btc each on CEX.io. If you use the bitcoin that is on http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ and claculate at current rate for buying and selling for 12 months with .6 decline per year, it works out that you will get 66 usd or .085 bitcoin for every GHs you buy.
That .6 number is bogus. It represents Moore's Law (difficulty doubles every 18 months). A more realistic number is 0.0014, which represents a 23% rise in difficulty each period.
One more question - are there any other tools to look at the CEX.IO market other than the graphs on it's site?
It seems by looking at the chat that traders react faster than anything you can actually see on the site. They would be like "here it goes" and sure enough here something goes, but several minutes later.
They also talk about walls and the size of them - I couldn't figure out where they get the size information. And some of the "walls" are so small you can't even see them on the depth chart.
Plus - what the hell is a whale? A very rich investor buying tons of GH (in this case) for unreasonable prices?
Thanks,
prolom.
It seems by looking at the chat that traders react faster than anything you can actually see on the site. They would be like "here it goes" and sure enough here something goes, but several minutes later.
They also talk about walls and the size of them - I couldn't figure out where they get the size information. And some of the "walls" are so small you can't even see them on the depth chart.
Plus - what the hell is a whale? A very rich investor buying tons of GH (in this case) for unreasonable prices?
Thanks,
prolom.
That's okay and my reply wasn't meant as offensive and you may have thought.
That's cool, I just wouldn't want anyone on here to think I was any kind of... truth-massager.
Hilariously the Cex site is down for me as of right now, but ghashio mines regardless... so... uh... *megashrug*
I'm sorry for being the one with the short and probably stupid question, but I get so confused seeing all this new terminology. It is possible to rent GH and direct it to another server or only on Cex.io BTC miners?
Yes it's totally possible but only on BTC miners from CEX, private pool
That's okay and my reply wasn't meant as offensive and you may have thought.
Your presentation and suggested outcomes just seemed... let's call it overly optimistic and one-sided/biased. That always comes across like typical salesmen pitch, that's all I'm sayin' .
Since cex is a legit thing, we can both agree on that. Making money with them outside successful trading, however, is near impossible with their current and forseeable price per GHs.
This is not my opinion, this is plain math.
(same is valid for reinvested BTC/NMC etc., even if you bought everything on the lowest price per day every day, the numbers just don't add up without additional (significant) influx of coins to boost it - that's what made your graph looked very skewed to me on 1st sight)
Should prices today drop and stay down by another ~40-50%, then we're talking about potential realistic profits when focus is on mining.
With emphasis on trading, cex can be quite profitable indeed. That's where they're actually good at and very useful for those with that in mind. The only thing it needs is successful trading, but if we all were good at it most of the time we'd be filthy rich and talk about the DOW/NYSE instead of cex.io
Your presentation and suggested outcomes just seemed... let's call it overly optimistic and one-sided/biased. That always comes across like typical salesmen pitch, that's all I'm sayin' .
Since cex is a legit thing, we can both agree on that. Making money with them outside successful trading, however, is near impossible with their current and forseeable price per GHs.
This is not my opinion, this is plain math.
(same is valid for reinvested BTC/NMC etc., even if you bought everything on the lowest price per day every day, the numbers just don't add up without additional (significant) influx of coins to boost it - that's what made your graph looked very skewed to me on 1st sight)
Should prices today drop and stay down by another ~40-50%, then we're talking about potential realistic profits when focus is on mining.
With emphasis on trading, cex can be quite profitable indeed. That's where they're actually good at and very useful for those with that in mind. The only thing it needs is successful trading, but if we all were good at it most of the time we'd be filthy rich and talk about the DOW/NYSE instead of cex.io
My cex.io analysis is less technical. Nonetheless I've been exploring it for a month now, and it's beating the pants off of straightforward mining with my own devices. since their mining has no downtime and Ghs are available by any amount, so it's more efficient than my own miners, even when they're pointed to cexio.
Cex can't compete with hardware miners on preporder for price per Ghs, but compared to however long it takes to accumulate mining rewards, buy miners with them, then await their arrival, the way you can turn a single mining reward into more GHS in seconds at cex is pretty valuable.
The way they mergemine is useful too, since the mined NMC (and/or BTC) can be traded for more Ghs after every confirmed block reward, so by doing this one's own mining speed increases to compete with rising diff. I like to sell all my mined NMC and 10% of my mined BTC for a steady, visible rise on the GHS speed chart. the IXC and DVC don't add up to much BTC, but it's better by far than only mining BTC with private mining contracts.
Cex does make some mysterious market moves, but it differs to regular markets in that cex themselves are presumably constantly adding new Ghs to their supply, and the market is in a constant GHS/BTC downslope as diff rises and GHS make less BTC. This seems disheartening at first, but a bot running an (adjusted) EMA strategy can make gains on fluctuations, and all the time you hold GHS you're mining too.
I screengrabbed and annotated this graph of my december @ cex for an as-yet-unwritten blog post, but it's pretty pertinent here. (it's largely aimed at miners who have a stack of spare NMC but relevant nonetheless)
EDIT: the account from which I post this graph also had a variable 3-6Ghs of hardware miners running on it!
Cex can't compete with hardware miners on preporder for price per Ghs, but compared to however long it takes to accumulate mining rewards, buy miners with them, then await their arrival, the way you can turn a single mining reward into more GHS in seconds at cex is pretty valuable.
The way they mergemine is useful too, since the mined NMC (and/or BTC) can be traded for more Ghs after every confirmed block reward, so by doing this one's own mining speed increases to compete with rising diff. I like to sell all my mined NMC and 10% of my mined BTC for a steady, visible rise on the GHS speed chart. the IXC and DVC don't add up to much BTC, but it's better by far than only mining BTC with private mining contracts.
Cex does make some mysterious market moves, but it differs to regular markets in that cex themselves are presumably constantly adding new Ghs to their supply, and the market is in a constant GHS/BTC downslope as diff rises and GHS make less BTC. This seems disheartening at first, but a bot running an (adjusted) EMA strategy can make gains on fluctuations, and all the time you hold GHS you're mining too.
I screengrabbed and annotated this graph of my december @ cex for an as-yet-unwritten blog post, but it's pretty pertinent here. (it's largely aimed at miners who have a stack of spare NMC but relevant nonetheless)
EDIT: the account from which I post this graph also had a variable 3-6Ghs of hardware miners running on it!
I've done exactly the same with just a tad more GHs (13) and I can tell you this :
Until the recent price crash, there was NO WAY you could even cover the increase of Pool speed, even with reinvesting every single BTC/NMC/IXC/DVC you mined there.
And there is absolutely no way you were able to buy those GHs with the displayed mining power.
Last weeks, ~13GHs 24/7 and everything fully reinvested hourly resulted in an approx. increase of +100MHs/day, slowly creeping up to +110MHs/day - that's 9-10 days just to buy additional 1GHs.
Noteworthy, the most surplus was generated with BTC reinvestment, the direct NMC output/reinvestment was miniscule compared to it and hardly worth mentioning. It really didn't make much difference. If anyone hoped that detail would push you into a positive yield curve - it doesn't happen (wouldn't work even if you could buy GHs with merged mined DVC/IXC, as those have almost no buying power at all).
And we're not even talking about diff increases yet. Without successful trading, it is impossible just to maintain constant payouts over time. You'd have to increase your performance by at least 2-3% every day just to keep up with Pool growth rates to keep your own GHs/Pool GHs ratio constant. That is impossible at cex.io with any GHs, especially as any rented Ghs takes the >3% maintenance fee hit.
(I even had the advantage of using only rented ~1.07GHs that climbed to ~1.98GHs, while running my own ~11.4GHs from Home, so the majority of my GHs weren't even affected by the ~3.3% maintenance fee in the timeframe)
Even with the latest price drop, ~13Ghs would take you some 6-7 days just to get another GHs on top.
Without tossing additional cash (BTC/NMC) at cex.io, your Graph was absolutely impossible to reach - been there, done exactly that with clearly more GHs - most of it not even rented. No-Go, not a chance.
If it was so easy to achieve a positive income curve at cex.io, everyone would do it. I tried for the heck of it but the Problem is : cex is a money-burning machine, your income curve without additional, successful GHs trading will always be negative by design. No matter how many BTC or NMC you throw at them, you'll lose money every day.
If you don't mind losing money and enjoy the convinience of cex trading, they actually work as advertised and their exchange does work pretty good at 0 fees.
PS.
I'll book your post under "shameless plug advertising", as your presented results don't add up, it's simply fairy tales you're telling.
Srsly you're thinking someone humiliated by that ridiculously transparent miningunited scam last year would try bullshitting this forum?
But valid:
there is absolutely no way you were able to buy those GHs with the displayed mining power.
I didn't say that was all my mining power, i just said that was my graph! That graph is but one of several intended for a post-to-be on my blog in the context of supplementing hardware miners with cexio Ghs. What you're not seeing on the graph is my hardware workers. I mentioned them at the start of the post, but didn't specify that fact next to the graph. No falsehood intended. Editing/disclaimering now. I think I got a referral or two in the last week of the graph too.Beyond that, there's no fairytaleness about my post: I have a simple homemade bot trading my NMC and a sometimes a bit of my BTC for GHS, and it creates a tiny rise in my GHS speed. Sometimes I see a big candle so I jump in ahead of the bot and sell the NMC manually. Sometimes I sell my altcoins, so I throw in extra BTC to buy GHS with, but only around 0.01BTC at a time, and I do it manually on an appropriate candle. It's kept my BTC block rewards healthy enough for my liking. I still have all my IXC and DVC.
But we're both right on this: merely holding Ghs in Cex is, so far, seldom all that profitable; it requires more intervention. That said, trading the mined NMC for GHS is a simple and immediate option to help stave off diff increases, and it's the fastest pool I know that mergemines 4 coins, so it's not a terrible choice to point hardware miners at. From a viewpoint of trading for profit, cex as an exchange with 0% fees and GHS as a commodity that earns BTC while you hold it are both favourable. All these factors combined present opportunities to profit. If that weren't true, there wouldn't be trades happening in there.
That's why I'm upgrading the hell out of my hardware mine and starting to use an custom EMA trading bot on that account from today, so that snapshot of my december was my last opportunity to document it straightforwardly before that account got crazy.
Well yeah I guess cex is like any tool:
you can use it effectively or you can stab yourself in the face with it, but you won't get rich just looking at it.
Yeah, I'm an oldfart I guess (was a cool movie when I was a kid)
Heh. I googled it before you edited it. How about that nice game of chess? Wow that's old. Cheers.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCWKZWieMSY
"I'll be the Russians".
prolom.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCWKZWieMSY
"I'll be the Russians".
prolom.
That's an easy question : Buy them - don't mine them.
That's the only way to win something without having to try to compete with the big industrial sized guns in the mining battle.
That's the only way to win something without having to try to compete with the big industrial sized guns in the mining battle.
What would you say is the entry level for an industrial sized gun? Not that I can afford it.
prolom.
If I had the cash, that would be an extremely difficult question as absolutely everything would depend on a timely delivery of the preorder...
Judging from what I've heard, that would either be a KNC Miner Neptune 2nd batch (9995$ @ 3 THs/sec projected in 2Q 2014) or Conterra Terraminer IV (5999$ @ 2 THs/sec projected in Apr 2014).
Black Arrow Prospero X-3 ($5949 @ 2GHs/sec projected 09 Mar 2014) looks nice as well, but I wouldn't count on the delivery time being what is projected with them.
Black Arrow does offer the Prospero X-1 for a low price (373$ @ 100GHs projected 09 Mar 2014), but what looks like an entry level big gun/sweet deal today will be rather mainstream performance by the time they ship.
And realistically seeing the output of these THs in ~Apr 2014 in physical shipped hardware the earliest, their profitable lifetime may be as short as 1 month (!) before you'd have to resell them to come out with a profit.
Plus : you wouldn't be the only one running them, your performance jump would be synchronious with the Pool/global hashrate employing the very same big guns as you...
Would be too risky of an investment for me, personally I wouldn't do it.
It's a race you just can't win unless you can afford to invest to the likes of 100000$ and get lucky (i.e. find a greater fool you resell the used hardware to at a high price).
The only way to can look good is if you have "free" electricity (own solar or wind power etc.), that somewhat extends the profitable lifetime of your gear but you'd still have to find and nail the sweet spot where you can resell your gear at a good price.
The way I see it, even company owners/middle class people with much deeper pockets than you and me are already seeing the same and slowly exit the mining. Risks are simply too high and rewards too unsure.
The only guys making a guarenteed killing are the hardware manufacturers who intentionally deliver limited batches (they do seem to coordinate behind the scenes in order to protect their own investments/products) into a market with extreme demand. In other industries, such conduct of business would be downright illegal.
Therefor I see mining-for-profit like Joshua (Movie "Wargames", 1983) :
That's an easy question : Buy them - don't mine them.
That's the only way to win something without having to try to compete with the big industrial sized guns in the mining battle.
That's the only way to win something without having to try to compete with the big industrial sized guns in the mining battle.
What would you say is the entry level for an industrial sized gun? Not that I can afford it.
prolom.
And from the looks of things, the difficulty looks like its abouting direction at this tim the min to go through the roof. I think sitting back might be a better option than going down the mining direction at this time.
Yes, I like that calculator because it uses empirical data to give a pretty good estimate of difficulty increase and incorporates its projected dynamics over the timeframe.
There seem to be alot of calculators out there that don't do that or even don't calc the dynamic diff increase at all - which by far is the biggest catch22 in BTC mining profitability, working against a non-linear dynamic difficulty increase... Very easy to frizzle the brain/underestimate - and lose money.
There seem to be alot of calculators out there that don't do that or even don't calc the dynamic diff increase at all - which by far is the biggest catch22 in BTC mining profitability, working against a non-linear dynamic difficulty increase... Very easy to frizzle the brain/underestimate - and lose money.
Use Falconfly link http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/c733e6dff7
Any step-by-step calculators out there? It's nice entering inputs and clicking 'calculate', but would be nice to know how all the inputs generate the output. Anyone know?
That's an easy question : Buy them - don't mine them.
That's the only way to win something without having to try to compete with the big industrial sized guns in the mining battle.
That's the only way to win something without having to try to compete with the big industrial sized guns in the mining battle.
I did not know that. Thanks for pointing that out. What would be your suggestion on investing bitcoin in that case?
*ugh*
60% profitability decline presently occurs in about 20 days (possibly even less in the near future, depending on how much high-end gear comes online 1Q/2Q 2014).... not in a year.
1GHs bought now @ 0.04BTC will earn you in entire 2014 : 0.02 Btc (that's a 50% loss @ End of Dec 2014 even at unrealistic cex.io 0% maintenance fee, and your 1GHs will be almost worthless then and will never break even)
http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/c733e6dff7
In short, cex.io prices would need to fall another 50% today in order to at least beak-even after about a year (which is an eternity in the BTC world, so you shouldn't count on a break-even)
PS.
Buying 0.04 BTC today stand a much better chance of doubling their $ value in 1 year than cex.io GHs ever allowing you to sell out without a loss just by mining.
60% profitability decline presently occurs in about 20 days (possibly even less in the near future, depending on how much high-end gear comes online 1Q/2Q 2014).... not in a year.
1GHs bought now @ 0.04BTC will earn you in entire 2014 : 0.02 Btc (that's a 50% loss @ End of Dec 2014 even at unrealistic cex.io 0% maintenance fee, and your 1GHs will be almost worthless then and will never break even)
http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/c733e6dff7
In short, cex.io prices would need to fall another 50% today in order to at least beak-even after about a year (which is an eternity in the BTC world, so you shouldn't count on a break-even)
PS.
Buying 0.04 BTC today stand a much better chance of doubling their $ value in 1 year than cex.io GHs ever allowing you to sell out without a loss just by mining.
Jump to: