Topic: Chances of $150 again - page 4. (Read 13487 times)

Oh my god, you are writing this in almost every topic you are trying so hard...what is your nickname on trollbox on btc-e? 

Dropped $300 in a few hours, will probably see $140 price later today. Sell now while you can, don't be last person and take a loss.

LOL at the "drop is imminent"

FTFY

Alright, Mr Wavebear who didn't get the joke, I know what 90% of your posts say anyway.
They say "Bitcoin will crash hard" and some subsubsubsubsub-wave nonsense.


No misquote here:

Misquoting others is not fair play. You have won my Ignore, please reciprocate.

But at MtGox any price is good to buy the BTC and withdraw these out 

Those BTC10,000 walls on MtGox are now down to 3,000. And we're still at $258.

next high will be $550

in january

why pick 32 as the beginning?  picking 7 (pirate dump bottom) or 10 (Nov bottom before the unbroken increase) makes much more sense.

EDIT: ah ok, he's picking the prior ATH as the beginning.  Interesting but doesn't really capture the full bull market phase

(That doesn't mean that I think this Math prooves anything, there are too much variables in this game to answer it with a simple math equation ^^)

60$ after 500$ probably not, but 60$ after 272$ is possible.
Right now, a 50k BTC dump would take the price down to 140$, and that would be just phase 1.

+1

This would be more complete:
$1 -> $32 -> $2   (x32)
$32 -> $266 -> $60   (x8)
$266 -> $  ?   -> $520  

Take off 2 much smaller (x8) as take off 1 (x32). Will take off 3 also be much smaller than take off 2, or is take off 2 just not complete yet?

That would give:
$1 -> $32 -> $2   (times 32)
$32 -> $ ? -> $60   (times ? )

$60 still possible after going to $500?

FTFY

Finally, someone who understands logarithms.

Bubble pop takes us to 2x the previous ATH:

$1 -> $32 -> $2
$32 -> $266 -> $60
$266 -> ?

Just don't forget this is all a commodity market, this recent uptick in price says nothing in regards to increased merchant adoption, increased transactions, etc.  So while this pricing level is supported, the only thing supporting it is the excitement of all the new folks piling on.  There are a lot of people who are buying at > $200 who will be pretty miffed if a walrus drops a bunch of coin and they lose the sparkle in their eye for the epic rise of BTC.  Same thing happened in April, huge excitement and then people were digging graves for BTC a few weeks after they hopped on board.  Now we're here again with no apparent reason short of excitement.  And excitement always gets corrected.

Or to be more specific, excitement is awesome for the folks who are holding, but for many there is a point where the financial reality outweighs the "moon" potential and the desire to cash out sinks in.  Net result is either whales get larger or new buyers "luck out" and "buy in cheap".  Reality is that after a while folks aren't going to want to purchase mBTC amounts because the cost of ownership or adoption is too high without any real benefit, i.e., there isn't much you can buy with BTC and everyone out there still pegs BTC against an actual fiat value for any physical purchase, so the BTC price will always be an "exchange" value for what the real price is.  So in that case, why jump on board for your $260USD/1BTC with exchange and transfer values attached if you could instead take your $260 and go directly to *any* store to make a purchase? 

BTC has not proven itself as a currency, and like previous boom/bust cycles there is a theoretical wall for adoption because there are only so many people who will "buy in" to the market.  The alternative, sadly, is we see a massive consolidation of BTC into very few hands, leading to the same problems we see in the current global economy.  And then people move on so that the whales can have a whale party and everyone else finds something not corrupted by the influx of massive amounts of fiat and the dreams being sold.

What adoption curve do you mean?

I've never seen this curve that was low compared to $120 last month. Please draw me that line  

I get the impression you are just making stuff up here on the go though.  

Therefore, and therefore only, I still prefer Bitchick!

It's possible when the current level is wildly above the adoption curve.  This $250 is a much stronger $250 than the $266 in April.  And the $120 last month was desperately low compared to the curve.  And then a billion Chinese people got on board.

And this is my point.  $266 in April (way too high to support) only took us down to about $60 when it crashed. 

Mt. Gox volume then was 1 million.

Mt. Gox volume now is 41 million, with another 51 million in China.

There are so many more people and so much more money in bitcoin now (and so many that are holding long) that the price simply cannot go that low anymore.  Math doesn't support it unless bitcoin is abandoned and dies.  Maybe, at the lowest, it could go to $150 again, but I repeat that you are going to see either:

$1000

or

$0

but not a rebound from double digits.  That won't happen again just like single digits or cents has never been seen again.

Go ahead and quote this post and save it for the day that we hit $99 and throw it in my face.  I'll be glad to be wrong and will buy a ton of bitcoins that day.