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I would have just replaced "don't doubt" with "think it's very likely" or some such less-than-100%-certain construct if that's what you meant.
Topic: [Chart] Old resistance to become new support? - page 2. (Read 277 times)
I would have just replaced "don't doubt" with "think it's very likely" or some such less-than-100%-certain construct if that's what you meant.
So... no doubt up but likely down?
Not no doubt up no, hence: question mark, reference of "good chance" and "seems likely". However I understand how my own perception of statistical probability can be too complicated to comprehend for some
My opinion is most likely up in the mid to long-term yes. Unless it's the first time Bitcoin makes a macro double top after 6 months of consolidation, which has never happened before, so I'd give this a low likelihood, though obviously possible. It's also possible that price corrects 80% from here or goes to 0 by the end of the year, but again, I'd also put a very low likelihood of this occurring as well.
You seem to have overdone the typical astrology tea leaves TA fence straddling.
I wouldn't say I'm on the fence what so ever no. This would mean I'm 50-50 on whether price goes up or down, short, mid and long-term, which isn't what I'm suggesting what-so-ever.
I'm theorising that price will go a bit further down in the short-term, followed by new ATH in the long-term.
TL:DR: Short-term bit bearish, mid-long term remains extremely bullish. Make sense to you?
(I understand that different multi-timeframe analysis can be complicated for people, I apologise)
Nice attempt with a passive-aggressive dig at my intelligence but the parts I quoted are in direct contradiction and forecast opposite directions at this moment in time ("correction [...] will now take place" and "continue up from here") with one of them being qualified as you having no doubt about it.
It could be simple typo, maybe you meant "from there" and maybe something less definitive than "don't doubt", but I guess we'll never know.
I recommend you just read the full sentences properly instead of cherry picking words to try and distort the overall analysis, than I won't have to further insult your so-called intelligence within this discourse.
"To me it seems likely that a 20% correction to the low $50Ks will now take place"
"I also don't doubt that price could... continue up from here"
So to break my analysis down for you into bite size chunks.
1) I believe the most likely direction is now a bit further down towards low $50Ks, before reaching ATH
2) I don't doubt that (1) could be wrong, and we continue upwards, it's still a relatively high probability
=> Translation: I'm certain that (1) could be wrong and the low is already in*
3) I haven't referenced the possibility of the high being in, I believe the probability is too low
*Can I be certain that something could happen? You bet! This is probably the only thing you can be certain about: a possibility being possible.
Similarly I could claim to be certain that something won't happen, though I never claim absolute certainty, only high or low probabilities.
Hopefully this is educational in understanding how probabilities are only as probable as their outcomes, and never certainties.
The relevance is I'm not implying a high probability that price falls to $50Ks, but that it is marginally more likely at this point of price and market structure.
Around 60-70% chance at best. Probably 70-75% if price drops below $57K (middle of nowhere), depending on how it get's there.
The more relevant aspect should be not whether price goes lower, but if it does, then where is it most likely to stop.
Most people just want to hear if price is 100% going up or 100% going down, without any comprehension of how probabilities or different time-frames work
Many users here fortunately heavily criticise these opinions, including myself. Hence I prefer to remain objective, by considering multiple outcomes.
Last time we had a dip I gave it 70% likelihood that price would fall to $40K after $50K was broken, and that it would hold, after the not so bullish golden cross ✔️
The time before was that $37.5K would become new support after $40K was broken to the upside, with similar high enough probability ✔️
Previously I had similar likelihood that $57.5K would hold in the short-term as strong resistance as the previous distribution zone ❌
Fortunately based on my risk/reward I don't need to be right all the time, only the majority of the time ✔️
This time I'm not claiming such high likelihood that we need to correct to support, but a lower chance❓
This is merely my analysis for risk/reward basis (that in the short-term looks low at the moment) as well as balancing portfolios etc, obviously not trade-able analysis at present on shorter-term time-frames, which should be obvious. Ie if you are currently on the fence at the moment as to whether to take profit or buy the dip, my suggestion is stay on it for now (while at resistance, as per usual) until a better opportunity comes around. Believe it or not, it's as important (if not more important) to know when to enter and exit positions (when trading), as well as when not to. The former can make money, the latter can help to preserve it.
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Nice attempt with a passive-aggressive dig at my intelligence but the parts I quoted are in direct contradiction and forecast opposite directions at this moment in time ("correction [...] will now take place" and "continue up from here") with one of them being qualified as you having no doubt about it.
It could be simple typo, maybe you meant "from there" and maybe something less definitive than "don't doubt", but I guess we'll never know.
I don't doubt repetition of trend and market pattern to happen but to rely on September and speculate for November or December of 2021 may not be followed. This year is having a different move totally different. For example we have had two powerful ATH unlike 2017 and now we are still expecting another over take of ATH.
So... no doubt up but likely down?
Not no doubt up no, hence: question mark, reference of "good chance" and "seems likely". However I understand how my own perception of statistical probability can be too complicated to comprehend for some
My opinion is most likely up in the mid to long-term yes. Unless it's the first time Bitcoin makes a macro double top after 6 months of consolidation, which has never happened before, so I'd give this a low likelihood, though obviously possible. It's also possible that price corrects 80% from here or goes to 0 by the end of the year, but again, I'd also put a very low likelihood of this occurring as well.
You seem to have overdone the typical astrology tea leaves TA fence straddling.
I wouldn't say I'm on the fence what so ever no. This would mean I'm 50-50 on whether price goes up or down, short, mid and long-term, which isn't what I'm suggesting what-so-ever.
I'm theorising that price will go a bit further down in the short-term, followed by new ATH in the long-term.
TL:DR: Short-term bit bearish, mid-long term remains extremely bullish. Make sense to you?
(I understand that different multi-timeframe analysis can be complicated for people, I apologise)
To me it seems likely that a 20% correction [...] will now take place
I also don't doubt that price could [...] continue up from here
I also don't doubt that price could [...] continue up from here
So... no doubt up but likely down?
You seem to have overdone the typical
Looking at the current price structure of Bitcoin, it seems like a good chance the the 0.618 fib retracement level around $53K will be re-tested before continuing the healthy uptrend. Similar to September, price corrected back down to the strong volume support zone (and previous resistance) of $40K from $53K with a 25% correction (to turn it into new support) after an 80% increase.
To me it seems likely that a 20% correction to the low $50Ks will now take place after a 70% increase, also lining up nicely with the 50 Day MA that's rising in a bullish manner. I also don't doubt that price could have already established a local low and continue up from here, but if recent price history is anything to go by, the healthy correction may continue a little longer before finding a new ATH in November.
What are your thoughts, is the bottom already in or does price a little further down to go before new ATHs?
To me it seems likely that a 20% correction to the low $50Ks will now take place after a 70% increase, also lining up nicely with the 50 Day MA that's rising in a bullish manner. I also don't doubt that price could have already established a local low and continue up from here, but if recent price history is anything to go by, the healthy correction may continue a little longer before finding a new ATH in November.
What are your thoughts, is the bottom already in or does price a little further down to go before new ATHs?
So my initial theory a month ago that Bitcoin would re-test the 0.618 fib retracement level after $65K was re-tested was flawed, given price shortly after moved higher.
Regardless of the time-based inaccuracy, the fractal itself however remains very relevant it seems taken from the $69K new ATH, now that price has re-tested the 0.618:
Regardless of the time-based inaccuracy, the fractal itself however remains very relevant it seems taken from the $69K new ATH, now that price has re-tested the 0.618:
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