Have uploaded two screenshots for the altcoin dominance TA, as doesn't fit in one screenshot:
Topic: [Charts] Altcoin Speculation Already Here? (October 2019 TA, Updated: July 2020) (Read 774 times)
July 24, 2020, 06:23:47 AM
OP updated with latest screenshots.
Have uploaded two screenshots for the altcoin dominance TA, as doesn't fit in one screenshot:
Have uploaded two screenshots for the altcoin dominance TA, as doesn't fit in one screenshot:
June 26, 2020, 02:07:49 PM
Bump, charts from October 2019 updated with latest trading screenshots + extra updated screenshot:
This has been the "never-ending" trade of the year. Altcoin dominance is still struggling to convincingly move above the 0.5 fib retracement zone. After 9 months it's time to start considering a break-even stop loss if altcoins are unable to rally further, although the current price structure remains satisfactory.
Regarding speculation on smaller cap coins, a lot of defi projects are recording record gains this year. While I'm expecting a considerable correction from these tokens, which could lead to increased strength in Ethereum (for those who are trading against this pair instead of BTC), I can sill see the potential of returning to 15% by the end of the year with the current trajectory, or alternatively a pull-back to 6.5%- 7.5% VPVR support. The Weekly RSI is reaching overbought territory, indicating a pull-back or another leg up is on the cards:
This has been the "never-ending" trade of the year. Altcoin dominance is still struggling to convincingly move above the 0.5 fib retracement zone. After 9 months it's time to start considering a break-even stop loss if altcoins are unable to rally further, although the current price structure remains satisfactory.
Regarding speculation on smaller cap coins, a lot of defi projects are recording record gains this year. While I'm expecting a considerable correction from these tokens, which could lead to increased strength in Ethereum (for those who are trading against this pair instead of BTC), I can sill see the potential of returning to 15% by the end of the year with the current trajectory, or alternatively a pull-back to 6.5%- 7.5% VPVR support. The Weekly RSI is reaching overbought territory, indicating a pull-back or another leg up is on the cards:
February 07, 2020, 07:58:54 AM
Belated update, we're also coming upto the 0.5 fib retracement level for reference sake:
Still expecting a pull back from small cap dominance as the red fractal arrow suggests, but at the same time it's still looking very strong right now.
If Ethereum is any metric to go by, then this could lead to profit taking of small caps into blue chips for a continuation of alt season.
For those trading shorter time-frames, it's a good time to tighten stop losses or take profits. As referenced previously, I expect some resistance at this level, but for it to ultimately be broken, whether that means coming back down to the 200 Week MA over the coming weeks to find support or not. I've taken some satoshi profits, but otherwise leaving long positions from October 2019 from 30.5% altcoin dominance (1.5% under the 200 Week MA now) on break even stop losses as macro trades, as opposed to swing trades.
Still expecting a pull back from small cap dominance as the red fractal arrow suggests, but at the same time it's still looking very strong right now.
If Ethereum is any metric to go by, then this could lead to profit taking of small caps into blue chips for a continuation of alt season.
December 12, 2019, 11:00:37 AM
On second thoughts, I'm still liking how this is looking. I have no idea what that gap was about, but looking at my original chart tells me it was more of a glitch than a problem.
Holding support above the 200 Week MA would be bullish, especially if we bounce strong from it making another new swing high above 6.9%. The TD 9 did nothing to reverse the dominance of small cap altcoins, we're still poking at resistance, even if I'm expecting a short-term top will come soon. A pull back would likely to coincide with a considerable bounce back in Bitcoin's price, similar to what occured in October with the 40% spike in price in less than 24 hours.
Holding support above the 200 Week MA would be bullish, especially if we bounce strong from it making another new swing high above 6.9%. The TD 9 did nothing to reverse the dominance of small cap altcoins, we're still poking at resistance, even if I'm expecting a short-term top will come soon. A pull back would likely to coincide with a considerable bounce back in Bitcoin's price, similar to what occured in October with the 40% spike in price in less than 24 hours.
December 11, 2019, 08:35:35 AM
Have updated the OP with latest screenshots and analysis for those still following this TA, that still appears relevant.
As referenced below, while the Weekly chart remains bullish, the Monthly chart has now begun to follow suit with a green price flip.
Altcoin dominance appears to again be finding support from the golden 200 Week MA, after previously finding support back in October.
Dominance is now above the 21 Week MA, RSI has left bearish conditions, CMF is now positive, MACD has been losing bullish momentum but still in a bullish posture. Notably the initial target of the 0.5 fib (34.8%) as well as ultimate target of the 0.618 fib (41.95%) by the end of the year remains illusive and now less likely, but dominance is still holding it's ground against BTC.
On the monthly chart, there has been a price flip to a green 1 which is a positive development. A drop in dominance this month would also initiate a TD 9 buying opportunity, and therefore unlike the Weekly chart could still be considered bullish.
A break above 33% (previous highs) would likely lead to the initial target of the 0.5 fib retracement around 35%.
As referenced below, while the Weekly chart remains bullish, the Monthly chart has now begun to follow suit with a green price flip.
Altcoin Dominance Bouncing From 0.382 Fib Retracement (18/09)
An Updated Closer Look (11/12)
Altcoin dominance appears to again be finding support from the golden 200 Week MA, after previously finding support back in October.
Dominance is now above the 21 Week MA, RSI has left bearish conditions, CMF is now positive, MACD has been losing bullish momentum but still in a bullish posture. Notably the initial target of the 0.5 fib (34.8%) as well as ultimate target of the 0.618 fib (41.95%) by the end of the year remains illusive and now less likely, but dominance is still holding it's ground against BTC.
On the monthly chart, there has been a price flip to a green 1 which is a positive development. A drop in dominance this month would also initiate a TD 9 buying opportunity, and therefore unlike the Weekly chart could still be considered bullish.
A break above 33% (previous highs) would likely lead to the initial target of the 0.5 fib retracement around 35%.
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December 11, 2019, 07:55:35 AM
Although the charts are showing fairly accurate signals, I have a lot of doubt about these signals. because in the near future the crypto market seems to be paying attention only to bitcoin and many people want to buy and hold it until June 2020. that shows that the market is just buying bitcoin and soon the alts are going to be colored. The red continued due to no need to buy or sell.
I think those signals are very interesting need to be positive about that many are holding bitcoin as for now because they know thag bitcoin have potential to grow soon. Altcoins can grow also once bitcoin finish the recovery zoon. Because many of altcoins grow the price once bitcoin goes up. So be positive sir this signals are only speculation.
indeed after Halving experts predict that Bitcoin can be above $ 20,000, but look at Altcoin now, 100 coins on Coinmarketcap look very good to buy and can potentially get a lot of bitcoin by selling it during the alt season coming,
I'm sure alt season will come before Halving bitcoin starts
Altcoin market will follow the bitcoin market surge once bitcoin hit the point of recovery.
December 11, 2019, 07:01:29 AM
Although the charts are showing fairly accurate signals, I have a lot of doubt about these signals. because in the near future the crypto market seems to be paying attention only to bitcoin and many people want to buy and hold it until June 2020. that shows that the market is just buying bitcoin and soon the alts are going to be colored. The red continued due to no need to buy or sell.
I think those signals are very interesting need to be positive about that many are holding bitcoin as for now because they know thag bitcoin have potential to grow soon. Altcoins can grow also once bitcoin finish the recovery zoon. Because many of altcoins grow the price once bitcoin goes up. So be positive sir this signals are only speculation. indeed after Halving experts predict that Bitcoin can be above $ 20,000, but look at Altcoin now, 100 coins on Coinmarketcap look very good to buy and can potentially get a lot of bitcoin by selling it during the alt season coming,
I'm sure alt season will come before Halving bitcoin starts
December 10, 2019, 06:56:47 PM
Although the charts are showing fairly accurate signals, I have a lot of doubt about these signals. because in the near future the crypto market seems to be paying attention only to bitcoin and many people want to buy and hold it until June 2020. that shows that the market is just buying bitcoin and soon the alts are going to be colored. The red continued due to no need to buy or sell.
I think those signals are very interesting need to be positive about that many are holding bitcoin as for now because they know thag bitcoin have potential to grow soon. Altcoins can grow also once bitcoin finish the recovery zoon. Because many of altcoins grow the price once bitcoin goes up. So be positive sir this signals are only speculation. 
December 10, 2019, 05:31:59 PM
Altcoins are not moving at all whatever happens. BTC is raising, altcoins are on the same point, or even falling. BTC is falling, the whole market crashes and altcoins are falling even deeper. I cannot even imagine what should happen to push alts forward.
please avoid Altcoin which is not the top 50 coinmarketcap, I think you mean the more in altcoin what you hold whether they are new altcoins, I think if altcoin falls deeper they run out of funds and go bankrupt with no investors and only manipulate prices, so go buy some Altcoins Coinmarketcap's top 50 will make you better and they continue to maintain their prices consistentlyremember most coins are now released through icos or ieos which means that the developers sell most or all of their coins to raise enough funds to make the project a reality
That's correct but they always don't sell all their found and the last time I checked every project owners always keep 45% for the project team i.e if the project is launch through ICO, IEO, STO etc. if they are smart they are going to immediately sell those funds for fiat or a stable coin so the volatility of the market is not going to affect them, the real problem is that most of those developers never had the intention of creating anything and at some point they flee with the funds.
Selling of fund raised during initial offering or swapping it for stablecoin still doesn't save project coin from dump in price or bankruptcy cause the project team still to play an important in liquidity, buy and selling of their coin on exchange site in other to save their project/coin. December 10, 2019, 04:40:42 PM
Altcoins are not moving at all whatever happens. BTC is raising, altcoins are on the same point, or even falling. BTC is falling, the whole market crashes and altcoins are falling even deeper. I cannot even imagine what should happen to push alts forward.
please avoid Altcoin which is not the top 50 coinmarketcap, I think you mean the more in altcoin what you hold whether they are new altcoins, I think if altcoin falls deeper they run out of funds and go bankrupt with no investors and only manipulate prices, so go buy some Altcoins Coinmarketcap's top 50 will make you better and they continue to maintain their prices consistently December 08, 2019, 08:21:37 AM
Regarding the OTHERS.D TA: despite the accuracy, for reference sake I've had to ditch this chart due to CMC re-calculations. As you can see, there is now a big gap that has formed, specifically soon after the chart was published, that's skewing the results despite the dominance already moving in my favor.
This is what the chart previously looked like, as you can see the gap has been re-calculated and is now considerably larger (dominance is following the arrow, as opposed to now above it). Ideally I'd be able to look at the original version, but unfortunately this isn't possible anymore:
I'm not entirely sure what this now means for speculating on small cap coin dominance. I don't believe this "gap" has to be filled, as it's CMC generate as opposed to organic (regarding forked coins increasing OTHERS.D for example), but either way the small cap dominance has come close enough to my initial target of around 7.5%.
This is what the chart previously looked like, as you can see the gap has been re-calculated and is now considerably larger (dominance is following the arrow, as opposed to now above it). Ideally I'd be able to look at the original version, but unfortunately this isn't possible anymore:
I'm not entirely sure what this now means for speculating on small cap coin dominance. I don't believe this "gap" has to be filled, as it's CMC generate as opposed to organic (regarding forked coins increasing OTHERS.D for example), but either way the small cap dominance has come close enough to my initial target of around 7.5%.
December 06, 2019, 02:46:18 AM
Altcoins are not moving at all whatever happens. BTC is raising, altcoins are on the same point, or even falling. BTC is falling, the whole market crashes and altcoins are falling even deeper. I cannot even imagine what should happen to push alts forward.
please avoid Altcoin which is not the top 50 coinmarketcap, I think you mean the more in altcoin what you hold whether they are new altcoins, I think if altcoin falls deeper they run out of funds and go bankrupt with no investors and only manipulate prices, so go buy some Altcoins Coinmarketcap's top 50 will make you better and they continue to maintain their prices consistentlyI don't think development teams run out of funds because of a bear market. They run out of funds because they are stupid and don't know how to manage a business. They don't know how to hedge their crypto wealth and keep on spending like there is no tomorrow.
December 05, 2019, 12:37:45 PM
Although the charts are showing fairly accurate signals, I have a lot of doubt about these signals. because in the near future the crypto market seems to be paying attention only to bitcoin and many people want to buy and hold it until June 2020. that shows that the market is just buying bitcoin and soon the alts are going to be colored. The red continued due to no need to buy or sell.
Dude, people are sharing signals and charts. They're not promising any returns or guaranteeing profits. You read, you learn, you share your own views, that's the whole point.
And duh crypto follows bitcoin. Holders are looking even longer than June 2020, believe me.
Red for altcoin markets isn't guaranteed. A lot can and will happen.
Majority wont really give out that assurance excluding to those analyst that do said of guaranteed possibility which isnt really true at all.
Market is way too unpredictable thats why its really hard to believe on for someone who do claim up with such presumptions.
Well we can risk on buying but always have that good thinking.
December 05, 2019, 11:42:01 AM
Although the charts are showing fairly accurate signals, I have a lot of doubt about these signals. because in the near future the crypto market seems to be paying attention only to bitcoin and many people want to buy and hold it until June 2020. that shows that the market is just buying bitcoin and soon the alts are going to be colored. The red continued due to no need to buy or sell.
Dude, people are sharing signals and charts. They're not promising any returns or guaranteeing profits. You read, you learn, you share your own views, that's the whole point.
And duh crypto follows bitcoin. Holders are looking even longer than June 2020, believe me.
Red for altcoin markets isn't guaranteed. A lot can and will happen.
December 05, 2019, 09:34:35 AM
Altcoins are not moving at all whatever happens. BTC is raising, altcoins are on the same point, or even falling. BTC is falling, the whole market crashes and altcoins are falling even deeper. I cannot even imagine what should happen to push alts forward.
please avoid Altcoin which is not the top 50 coinmarketcap, I think you mean the more in altcoin what you hold whether they are new altcoins, I think if altcoin falls deeper they run out of funds and go bankrupt with no investors and only manipulate prices, so go buy some Altcoins Coinmarketcap's top 50 will make you better and they continue to maintain their prices consistentlytheir money in a short period of time. You need to be precise deciding when to buy and place your position so with when to sell. There's no certain
time where you can accurately predict but you can keep specific project that have real intentions.
December 05, 2019, 05:09:25 AM
Altcoins are not moving at all whatever happens. BTC is raising, altcoins are on the same point, or even falling. BTC is falling, the whole market crashes and altcoins are falling even deeper. I cannot even imagine what should happen to push alts forward.
please avoid Altcoin which is not the top 50 coinmarketcap, I think you mean the more in altcoin what you hold whether they are new altcoins, I think if altcoin falls deeper they run out of funds and go bankrupt with no investors and only manipulate prices, so go buy some Altcoins Coinmarketcap's top 50 will make you better and they continue to maintain their prices consistentlytheir money in a short period of time. You need to be precise deciding when to buy and place your position so with when to sell. There's no certain
time where you can accurately predict but you can keep specific project that have real intentions.
December 05, 2019, 05:06:44 AM
Although the charts are showing fairly accurate signals, I have a lot of doubt about these signals. because in the near future the crypto market seems to be paying attention only to bitcoin and many people want to buy and hold it until June 2020. that shows that the market is just buying bitcoin and soon the alts are going to be colored. The red continued due to no need to buy or sell.
what you say is also understandable and I also feel that what you say is an analysis that may be the same as what has happened so far and acknowledge that it is true as I expected.bitcoin is still the most important reference of the crypto market and I am not apathetic about altcoin, but many more cannot grow even though there are quite a lot of them but are still influenced by bitcoin.
December 05, 2019, 03:49:09 AM
Although the charts are showing fairly accurate signals, I have a lot of doubt about these signals. because in the near future the crypto market seems to be paying attention only to bitcoin and many people want to buy and hold it until June 2020. that shows that the market is just buying bitcoin and soon the alts are going to be colored. The red continued due to no need to buy or sell.
December 05, 2019, 03:20:11 AM
Altcoins are not moving at all whatever happens. BTC is raising, altcoins are on the same point, or even falling. BTC is falling, the whole market crashes and altcoins are falling even deeper. I cannot even imagine what should happen to push alts forward.
please avoid Altcoin which is not the top 50 coinmarketcap, I think you mean the more in altcoin what you hold whether they are new altcoins, I think if altcoin falls deeper they run out of funds and go bankrupt with no investors and only manipulate prices, so go buy some Altcoins Coinmarketcap's top 50 will make you better and they continue to maintain their prices consistentlyI don't think development teams run out of funds because of a bear market. They run out of funds because they are stupid and don't know how to manage a business. They don't know how to hedge their crypto wealth and keep on spending like there is no tomorrow.
December 05, 2019, 03:06:49 AM
Altcoins are not moving at all whatever happens. BTC is raising, altcoins are on the same point, or even falling. BTC is falling, the whole market crashes and altcoins are falling even deeper. I cannot even imagine what should happen to push alts forward.
please avoid Altcoin which is not the top 50 coinmarketcap, I think you mean the more in altcoin what you hold whether they are new altcoins, I think if altcoin falls deeper they run out of funds and go bankrupt with no investors and only manipulate prices, so go buy some Altcoins Coinmarketcap's top 50 will make you better and they continue to maintain their prices consistently Jump to: