This is kind of interesting, even if worth taking with a large pinch of salt
Out of interest did you also provide it with human-based analysis of Bitcoin's price, such as tradingview publications, or merely the price data? As it seems to be regurgitating a lot of analysis already out there imo. Therefore it seems likely it has categorised the possible outcomes based on the amount of analysis provided on these outcomes, as opposed to "forming" it's own statistical analysis.
ChatGPT does not have access to the internet. The data it is based on ends in 2021, and what comes after that is very fragmented and incomplete. So, the analysis I shared with you is not based on other online analyses of current bitcoin price change. The data the model received from me consists of daily OHLC (Open, High, Low, Close) prices starting from January 2023. The analysis seams to be based on that, price action before 2021 and old analysis that model already had.
So if ChatGPT isn't analysing human-based analysis, I assume it's using available generic technical analysis (ie publicly available information) to analysis the current price based on OHLC? It'd therefore make sense why the analysis is relatively in-line with other human-based analysis, if it is simply applying general TA to Bitcoin's current price. I guess you could say it's reassuring in that sense.
Also, although bullish predictions have been made short to long-term, there is notably no possibility of a bearish outcome here? Ie 100% of the outcomes are bullish which seems completely unrealistic, even if price is to continue higher. Either way, I'd be interested to hear updates from Chat GPT if you are willing to feel it the latest data in the future, in order to see how accurate these predictions are!
It seems to me that these percentages do not add up to 100%, because they relate to different time intervals. The bot seems to give the most likely scenario for a given period and gives its probability. The second analysis seems better.
Fair enough, that makes sense. You're right that the TA on different time-frames would be independent of each other, and therefore the percentages shouldn't be considered cumulative.
Thanks for the answer. Yes, I think it's an interesting topic and I'll try to update the thread with current analysis as well as improve the prompt for AI to get better answers in future.
Looking forward to future updates. If I had to guess, it could well analyse Bitcoin's price using technical analysis theories better than humans, as will do so without emotion.