Topic: China Holiday Ended Yesterday. China wakes again in about 5 hours. Predictions? (Read 3365 times)

Brilliant thanks mate, I understand what you are saying!

It's not about days of the week but market swings. If the trend is up (like it was in October and December before the correction - check out how it looks on the graphs) you're better off holding. If the market is swinging daily or crashing it's better to trade. This thing with Gox seems to be a good trading opportunity.

Do you find like weekends are different than weekdays or something like this?

Any advice would be greatly appreciated.

depends which day it is.

From your past experiencs is it better to day trade or just to hold?

100% agree, I tried trading in spring/summer 2013 when the price was slowly rising and found out I would've earned the same or more if I just held. Seen a lot of people panic sell and lose, so I just decided to play it safe and have more free time, but unfortunately last two months was a traders paradise, every week +/- $100 and slow down trend (bad for holders). Holding gets easy if you go past the early stage (first few months) when the price is close to your entry, that's why early adopters can hold with no regrets. The rest of us, who bought at $500 or more may still lose.

Fixed mate.

I don't consider myself that early of an investor.  Should have bought more sooner of course.   So I probably don't fall under the "Bitcoin nouveau riche" category as you put it.

That said, I think many of us hold because we have been victims of panicking when the price has dropped in the past only to realize that it bounces back and keeps moving upwards.  So we really are trying to be helpful.  It is painful to sell when the price drops only to have it go back up again to newer heights.  It is wiser to just hold and have a plan as to what price point it is best to cash out at.

And if Bitcoin really does reach the heights many feel strongly it will get to, isn't $700 still a great time to buy?  I think it is.  I would be buying if my cash was not already tied up.  But to each his own.

Huobi's fake volume bots commission by the PBOC will mimic USD exchanges but trend just that little bit higher in order to offer the big nosed foreign barbarians some hope, so that they may not sell off too rapidly whilst Chinese Bitcoin whales cash out at as high a price as possible on Bitstamp.

The Chinese men all wake up together, take group showers, go outside in a formation, meditate, practice kung fu forms, worship the emporer, eat breakfast, go to work, take their month's paycheck, and invest it directly into bitcoin. Bitcoin shoots to $1,000,000.

Mat: The mentality reminds me of those who host tupperware parties or push Amway on their friends.  Some people here have a small fortune in Bitcoin and will defend it to the death.  I can't blame them.  People should just realize that for each bear who wants to put a fright into people to snatch up "teh cheep coinz", there is a bull who cringes whenever the markets go red because their wealth is literally crumbling before them and will urge investors to HODL (i.e. prop up their retirement fund).  And yes, the Bitcoin nouveau riche should keep their egos in check.  It makes about as much sense as being proud of winning the lottery.  Case in point, there was a guy in this forum bragging about some junk alt coin he bought up a few years ago and sold for $2mil on BTC-E.  But hey, if people are dumb enough to buy it, more power to him.

I really hope China wakes up and decide it's time to dump. So funny when there's action, last few weeks have been too slow.

I am just as bearish now as I was at $820 when I sold my last Bitcoin. Actually I lie, I am even more bearish, worse than bearish. Even although I am holding no Bitcoins. I am now frightened of a real Bitcoin bloodbath.

A lot of people of unremarkable intelligence have lucked out in Bitcoin big style and as a consequence, now have heads the size of Jupiter and throw their 'advice' (Buy and HODL at any price cos any price is cheap) around as though they were financial wizards possessing some kind of esoteric knowledge about Bitcoin, the free market, 'and how it all works'. For this reason, I get quite agitated with a lot of people on here. But would it really be a great thing to see all those essentially clueless Joe Blows getting taken to the cleaners by the same old assortment of financial sharks? Probably not.

You are holding no Bitcoins?  Are you 100% certain Bitcoin will tank?  are you only 50/50 about it?  If so, I would at least buy one!  Today is a good day to do so BTW.  There is a chart that says we will reach $1,000,000 by 2017 at the latest.

I have only been joking but I think that some people may have been taking me seriously. So to be serious:

I am holding no Bitcoins. This is because my belief is that Bitcoin is going to tank, probably worse than anyone might imagine.

I am not shorting Bitcoins either, because I don't trust Bitfinex not to suddenly get hacked/go tits up and for my funds to disappear down a black hole.

I don't have any charts, with any lines drawn on them. But if I were to be forced to make one up, I would concoct one showing that after every previous Bitcoin bubble, the price has dipped below the 200 day Moving Average, and that would mean sub $500 Bitcoin.

I never said with certainty that this is what WILL happen. But in a weird sort of way the chart does make some sense.  I look at it as a best case and worst case scenario.  There is reasons to believe we are on one of these adoption curves.  So far Bitcoin has been following an S-Curve adoption rate of new technology.  Many traders on the forum have been using the log-linear line to make trading decisions.  However, it appears to me that we have moved on to the other line now.  As hard as it may seem to believe, the price may be undervalued right now!  We won't know for a few months but if the price does get up to about $10,000 per coin by May we will then have more evidence of which line we are moving along on.  And these numbers are not just pulled out of thin air. 

Silence!

One cannot use words to argue against another armed with a chart,with lines drawn on it! Unless you have a different chart with different lines drawn on it, I suggest you pipe down!

To me, it is obvious that this mini-crash was started and driven mostly by China.  

Just check the price and volume charts.  The drop started at the same time in all exchanges, which happens to be Feb/07 07:00 06:00 am in China; and things calmed down again at the same time, which is about 02:30 01:30 am in China.   There was a smaller drop yesterday, which started at 08:00 am sharp - China time.

Since the Nov/2013 rally, and probably since much earlier, the Chinese exchanges have been running the show and defining the Bitcoin price.  BTC-China was the leader at first, but since mid-December it has practically died and Huobi and OKCoin have taken the lead.  They usually account for 70% or more of the total volume at the exchanges monitored by the main charting sites.  

Bitcoin price moves when the Chinese are trading; it stagnates when they go to bed, go on vacation, or are hung over from the previous night's party.  Arbitrage trading, preumably by a small group of professional traders, must be spreading the price swings in China to all other exchanges.   Traders outside China are then spurred by those price swings to react, at weird hours of the day.

My theory for the cause of this mini-crash is that the Chinese banks have re-opened after the Chinese New Year holidays (some on Feb/06, most today).  That made it possible for the Chinese investors to again withdraw money from the exchanges.  At that point, many of those who had become disillusioned with bitcoin during the week choose to dump and withdraw.

I don't think that the Apple ban had much impact on traders' mood, in China or elsewhere.  Most bitcoin investors were attracted by the promise of quick huge profits, not by the long-term dream of electronic payments without banks.   And the typical Chinese investor probably does not know or care about non-Chinese exchanges, Mt.GOX included.  

This might've been true but what we're dealing with now is not a price correction. It's a sell due to possible exchange scam/fail, so it doesn't have to follow the bounce pattern. It now depends on whether gox manages cash flow or not, if not everybody will move their money, price will temporarily go down and back up as other exchanges receive the money. If they do, price should slowly recover to ~$900.

Lol... it will never happen girl...