Topic: China is a declining Power (Read 253 times)

I thinks it's gonna slow down more in the coming years. Especially now that standard of living has increased, they could get stuck in what some call "middle-income trap".

There is barely any nation in the world even in there rural settlement that your likely not going to see a Chinese product so deeply in need and in use. Though, there might be an economic decline decline which is expected due to the pandemic, China is very much far from the ashes as one my think.

Somehow, we gave too much attention to the decline in this and lost focus on the element of an improvement if taken away in the news. It very much addressed tighter restrictions as some cause to the decline and a little free hand could push the economy to where it needs be.

For a source and one of the most if not the most place where the effect of the Covid-19 was massively felt, China is doing just fine than many nations could be proud off. It's sure to rise better and stronger with its population duly reduced as it was an issue at a time.

It's definitely going to slow down within a decade or so. The days of cheap labor is over and inevitably some businesses would move out to where it is cheaper. Of course there's automation and switching to higher-value good to make up for that but other developed countries can do that. And yes, that rapidly aging population is gonna affect them same way it did Japan.

From my perspective and understanding is that there's always a way of fixing things if we look profound rather than going the hard way. Mexico is close to the US than China I guess that is why Trump focuses on Mexico more than China.
What you said about Trump locking up the Mexican remind me of the issue raised on this forum about tagging all the bounty hunter. Yes, some bounty participants on this forum are like the virus but not all of them.
The same thing goes for the Mexican that Trump wants to lock up but one thing that is sure is that every race or country has some bad and good eggs.

remember trump wanted to lock up all the mexicans because he was afraid of rapes..
.. kind of funny how the trumpette loving media of fox news wants to call out china when in trumps era he locked up far more mexicans

The high increase of abuse of fundamental human rights and oppression of minorities does not happen in China alone. I don't know if you noticed that after the covid-19 which led to a total lockdown happened a lot of people are frustrated and there's a lot of increase in crime schemes globally. Although, China was known for being of a country where forced labor, coercive population control methods, and physical and sexual abuse always happened.

 
This is the major problem they have in China and also in Africa most of the political systems are seen as a business venture.

Although the kind of power was not mentioned because we have political, economical and military power. Politically China is really declining. There is high rise of abuse of fundamental human rights and oppression of minorities. Chinese democracy operates in an autocratic system. Elections in China are formalities and one party system still dominates its political space. Economically China is not doing badly, its economic growth was marred by Covid-19 and some sanctions imposed on them by U.S during the Trump administration. But China has managed to attract more trade partners in Middle-East, Africa and the Caribbean. The frosty relationship between Washington and Riyadh has made China a major player in the Middle- East economy. Low interest loans and other enticing infrastructural opportunities have also made China a highly sort economic partner in Africa and the Oceania. Militarily China is not lagging behind. Although some of their warheads are inferior replica of the American specification but they are cheap and effective. The affordability of Chinese weapons has made many countries to sign military bilateral agreements with China.        

in a country that has ZERO imports/exports. there is no growth. its just stirring the same money in the same pot within the country.

if a country is a heavy importer it loses because it is spending money, giving money to other countries

if a country is a heavy exporter it wins because it is receiving money, getting money from other countries

in short china wins america loses

alot of people see news/media trying to say that china is a big enemy. this is a huge falsehood. they do this to try and scare small businesses from forming relationships with china to compete with the big companies. making it impractical for small businesses to start up and just form contracts with china unless they have authorisation by certain international committee's that pretend its defending america from foreign threats.

silly stories about how people have to bow down every time they see a picture of the chinese president or face arrest. silly stories about how every penny of chinese currency is monitored and a personable offence if you do a deal thats not ratified and acknowledged by chinese/us government.

silly stories about how china has more people in detention camps than america does.
sorry but this is untrue.

this is not china being secretive. this is the western countries selling western citizens a false story and pretending its the only story that exists.

even statistics like GDP is falsely reported in the west by basing it on a crappy US forex rate that the US push as the conversion rate of value. even though as described in my previous post if based on lifestyle vs lifestyle of same house layout and furnishings, TV screen size and food contents of the kitchen freezer.. china has more 'value' per person than the US.

even the false news of china wasting more power.
based on each house usage. china uses less electric per house than america does. meaning america wastes more electric

lets take the news about the 'concentration camps'
1.4bill chinese and 1mill uyghurs in detention camps.
thats not even 0.1%(0.07%)

yet america has more then 0.1.% of mexicans in detention camps..
US 330m pop with 1.7m mexicans in detention camps in 2021 (0.51%)

and yes america love their guns and would happily 'shoot to kill escapees' too.

china has less of a migrant/illegal alien problem than america does

If you dont use statistics then you cant draw any conclusion on the state of China, we should compare data. Unfortunately, china is more conceal with some data than America. A lot is happening in the world that have shifted our minds off politicking with other top countries. In all standards, China is doing very well with world market, foreign reserve etc but their image is being attacked regularly.

               Nothing lasts forever as what people say, and this is true in every sense on just about anything. China has grown well over the past years but as we see, it is gradually slowing down. As to how much it would slow down or decrease the pace of its growth I can't say since I am not good with statistics. But common sense does help me see this. Still though, I believe that China won't lose out to other countries in terms of growth in the short term. Regardless, in the long run, it may he over taken since some countries show great potential in growth. Just my simple view.

I assume you mean imports? In fact, whilst China is generally thought of as an exporting nation, it does also import a lot.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_exports


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_imports


There's an interesting breakdown of Chinese imports by category here (including the treemap visual below): https://tradingeconomics.com/china/imports-by-category

I will advise you reread what was posted. I will not discredit the fact that China's rise to world dominance should not be emulated or applauded. At present, their military might is second place after the US. They do not engage in exports as all they need, they try to develop or manufacture it. But looking at their demography, China is one of the worst hit when it comes to earthquakes and you think that will not have an effect? Take the COVID-19 outbreak for instance, in as much as they have found a way to get round it, it still poses a big threat to their economy.

Yes. It's been apparent for some years now that the era of double-digit Chinese growth has ended. The huge spike in early 2021 emphasises your point regarding bitcoin - it's far easier to grow from a low base, the massive early 2021 growth occurs only because the growth is year-on-year, so it's relative to the downturn at the start of the pandemic.

As there is some confusion in this thread, I should stress that the chart below is measuring the rate of change of GDP, not absolute GDP numbers. So with this in mind, any value above 0 is still growth, and China is still growing at a significant rate, just not as much as previously.


https://www.statista.com/chart/17747/china-quarterly-gdp-growth/


And as an aside, this also suggests that if we are trying to assess the long-term growth of something that has exploded exponentially, such as bitcoin, it makes more sense to do so on a logarithmic rather than a linear scale.


https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

he/she m-milf the op did not say they were declining power the op said they would slow their growth which is a decline growth rate.

I think a good example is btc it will never grow at the rate it did from 2009 to now.

10000 btc for 1 pizza  is now 291,110,000

so 10 bucks became 29,111,000 bigger

that growth rate will decline

I think this Covid stuff is just a speed bump for China.  I would hardly call them a declining power.  They will most certainly be the world's leading superpower in another 15 years, regardless of how much their growth slows.  I think as the world continues to evolve, China will find itself in an increasingly powerful position.  They have a lot of their side for the future.  I wouldn't count them out...

america is 'propping' up its downfall. by faking its GDP
they done this by alot of quantitative easing (printing money)
but this money is not being put into the system where citizens get more income or better livestyle. its hidden away at the top, in silly derivatives and corporate backed 'products' that just stay there out of circulation.

so although GDP appears as better $/person.. in reality. the $/p is far less than it used to be.
US spending power of being able to feed, cloth/house themselves is worse than in the 1950-60's. yet GDP makes it look like america is better than it was in the the 1950-60's

china is better now than in the 1950-60's yet the forex rates hide that where it makes it look like china is worse living conditions than in the 1950-60's

Also, a decline might not be rapid, rather slow and steady taking up much time. What we are witnesing now with China might not be even close to the end, look at how USA  is postponing it's downfall so it's anybodys guess how it will go for China.

during a time of lockdown
(feb 2020 and april 2022) a 15% drop is nothing.

trying to make long term statements about china losing power, using short term data of just last month is silly.

after all in february 2020 had a higher loss of more then 15%.. but recovered afterwards.

..

as for GDP well thats just a arbitrary number
so many things influence it, so that GDP becomes void of relevance.

EG if they actually had a measure of people vs. square footage of land ownership per person.
the % spend of minimum wage that can afford shelter, food, electric.
and the compared countries by that.. CHINA WOULD WIN

it has 4.2x population of the US
so loaf of bread vs loaf of bread. china can feed, house and enlighten 4.2x more then america. meaning china has more then america in most respects.

the only reason that its not seen is that forex. pegs china's 'value' at 4x less than america

EG if you can buy the same amount of loaves of bread in china and america. same square footage of house and same sofa..
china would still look like its 4x less because the RMB/USD conversion has made china look 4x poorer.

I think the issue is that the thread title can be misinterpreted very easily. I clicked on the title, preparing to disagree with the OP, but then saw that the argument was not that China would fall back into poverty, cease to be a superpower, etc... merely that its phenomenal level of growth would not continue. Which we'd probably all agree with. Thread title probably needs a tweak, though, to avoid confusion.

he did not say an end to economic growth.

he say an end to stunning economic growth.


which basically mean they are declining some what. He is perfectly correct. The economic growth rate china 🇨🇳 has enjoy will not go on it will level off.

Does it mean china will fall apart I doubt that.
Does it mean it will grow at the same rate it has done the last 30 years or so no.
It means the rate will decline.

Ie maybe 5% not 10%.

I agree with the op . I think you simply over read the op’s point.

an end to stunning economic growth is a decline in growth.