China is out........of credit. Yuan credit is sunkChina Rates Surge Despite Central Bank Measures
By NEIL GOUGH
Published: December 23, 2013
HONG KONG — A bid by China’s central bank to curb soaring interest rates and relieve pressure on the financial system appeared to have come up short on Monday, as Chinese money market rates shrugged off the measure and continued to approach the highs seen in June.
The central bank, the People’s Bank of China, said late Friday that it had provided more than 300 billion renminbi, or about $50 billion, in short-term funds to selected banks over a three-day period that week.
Rates continued to surge on Monday, however, in China’s money markets — a key source of short-term funding for commercial banks and also for financial institutions engaged in risky, off-balance-sheet shadow lending.
One key rate, the seven-day repurchase rate, rose as high as 10 percent on Monday. That was double the rate of a week earlier and the highest level since June, when the People’s Bank of China allowed rates to surge in an effort to curb speculative investment in the country’s sprawling shadow banking sector.
China’s banks are scrambling for short-term cash to meet month-, quarter- and year-end regulatory requirements. At the same time, demand for cash is high among Chinese companies seeking to meet year-end payments.
These and other factors have combined to push the costs of short-term borrowing in China up drastically, a situation that if left unchecked, could leave some banks struggling to meet their obligations and could have implications for the broader economy.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/24/business/international/china-rates-approach-crisis-levels-despite-central-bank-measures.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=1& This article fails to report another phenomenon (which is really part of the same story).
Regional Chinese banks are issuing their own "real economy" IOU notes to combat the slowing money circulation (i.e. only to be used for short term, non speculative deals). They're selling them to financial brokers at anything up to half the face value (bank hands over 1000 yuna IOU, broker hands over 500 yuan cash). This is a clear move to get cash onto the balance sheets and goods and services to keep trading.
But the brokers are a little too overwhelmed with getting "twice" the face value of their cash for these promissory notes, and are buying them for any and all speculation (kind of messed up logic; one set of promissory notes layered upon another
). Of course the regional banks aren't accepting promissories from each other, so there's a curious dynamic developing with non-official (to the central bank, anyway) regional currencies inflating the local money supply at the business level. Sounds like potentially a complicating factor, even if it's preventing liquidity problems in the short term....