China mining decision May 7 - page 2.

exstasie

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Quote from: WinslowIII on May 05, 2019, 11:06:51 AM

"If ever China totally bans crypto mining"

I don't think you are keeping up with the news much, because I give it an 80% chance of this exact thing happening in 2 days!

80% chance? That seems like a big exaggeration but maybe you're right. I've been hearing about imminent PBOC/Chinese government plans to ban Bitcoin for ~6 years now, including proposals like this one. Given their track record, I'd say the odds are much lower.

If they do truly ban mining, it will be a planned and orderly exit at a future date like adaseb mentioned. Chinese people are heavily invested in Bitcoin and the mining industry and the government isn't interested in massacring those investors. In the past, their overt reasoning for prohibition talk is usually investor protection.

WinslowIII

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Quote from: bitsurfer2014 on May 05, 2019, 05:55:18 AM

If ever China totally bans crypto mining then I believe it could be a blessing in disguise since this scenario could significantly lessen China's dominance in Bitcoin mining industry and it would result to a more decentralization which is good for the overall security of Bitcoin network since the more segregated the mining power in Bitcoin around the world, the better it will be for the whole network. And also, it will open up opportunities to other mining pools to try and mine BTC with a lesser threat from overwhelming competitors.

"If ever China totally bans crypto mining"

I don't think you are keeping up with the news much, because I give it an 80% chance of this exact thing happening in 2 days!

But I do agree that long term things will be better without the Chinese involvement in crypto, but short term the price could crash for the reasons I've already stated. I think buying before this Tuesday is pretty fucking risky. If the decision to ban comes as expected, that would be a hell of a nice time to short - but I also expect a significant drop immediately.

bitsurfer2014

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If ever China totally bans crypto mining then I believe it could be a blessing in disguise since this scenario could significantly lessen China's dominance in Bitcoin mining industry and it would result to a more decentralization which is good for the overall security of Bitcoin network since the more segregated the mining power in Bitcoin around the world, the better it will be for the whole network. And also, it will open up opportunities to other mining pools to try and mine BTC with a lesser threat from overwhelming competitors.

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: magneto on May 05, 2019, 02:59:44 AM

I highly doubt that it's going to have an effect on the price either way, though if out of the blue they do somehow come out with new regulations for miners, then it would potentially lead to a rally.

never underestimate the "china bans bitcoin" headline! since they're no longer relevant in the exchange space, messing with the mining industry is the last way the chinese government can fuck with the market.

since i don't believe we're in a bull market yet (and in fact i think we're near the top here), if they ban mining in a couple days, i'm confident it'll help trigger a crash.

Pursuer

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Where is my ring of blades...

the FUD about China is old news mainly because it was overused to the point that it became see through. you can blame all the FUDsters who came before you, they kept on using the same thing about China banning bitcoin and everything related to it for years and slowly but surely people stopped believing in the lies and nowadays whenever they hear the word "China" the first thing that comes to mind is bullshit Wink

there is also the fact that with all the things that Chinese government has been doing over the past years such as closing exchanges,... every business has exited that country. even Bitmain is no longer under the fingers of Chinese government.

adaseb

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I Would be very surprised if they actually did ban it. And even if they banned it, they would set a date in the far off future and people would be prepared for it.

And the hashrate in the end wouldnt change because the ASICs would get shipped and sold off to other countries and they would just get powered on somewhere else.

The difficulty would eventually slowly adjust and even with a massive amount of hashrate gone, the difficulty would go lower and we would get 10 minute block times again.

magneto

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Quote from: WinslowIII on May 03, 2019, 06:35:31 PM

So apparently China will announce their decision in 4 days about mining crypto legality. Here's one scenario:

-They say no more mining, 70% of the hashrate disappears immediately, giving other miners a much larger reward than before. Price crashes as they sell for more profits, and it takes time for other miners to take up the slack in other countries. After things settle out price starts rising again in time for next halving.

What do you think? is there another more likely scenario?

I'm not expecting them to shift their stance on something that they've basically decided long ago, which is to drive crypto businesses (or at least 'unregulated ones', by China's standards) out of the country. This isn't something that is new.

I don't agree with the statement that all of a sudden, hash rate in the network is going to drop by so much. Most Chinese mining companies will either have already relocated overseas, or in the process of doing so. Others that are already operating in secrecy won't be deterred just because the government's stance is formalised.

I highly doubt that it's going to have an effect on the price either way, though if out of the blue they do somehow come out with new regulations for miners, then it would potentially lead to a rally. But as I said, no one expects that scenario to happen.

udidrone

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Quote from: noormcs5 on May 04, 2019, 11:33:10 PM

Quote from: WinslowIII on May 03, 2019, 06:35:31 PM

So apparently China will announce their decision in 4 days about mining crypto legality. Here's one scenario:

-They say no more mining, 70% of the hashrate disappears immediately, giving other miners a much larger reward than before. Price crashes as they sell for more profits, and it takes time for other miners to take up the slack in other countries. After things settle out price starts rising again in time for next halving.

What do you think? is there another more likely scenario?

Whatever the decision will be, it will only effect the Chinese community and will have no impact globally and on bitcoin price. We all know now that News from China these days are only to create Fud and therefore, it has much more less impact on bitcoin price and volume.

Have a same thoughts with you. But maybe it can be wrong because a lot of people still influenced by chinese news about bitcoin these days. But we must know something like this always happen and people might be already know what it means.

Reid

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They have been great at advertising bitcoin by this kind of news.
Why? They have done it over and over again and it still works.
Do you really think they will just give it up if they have already invested time and effort by doing this kind of act?
I dont think so.

It is like a natural thing by now. Almost every quarter they will put something on the news for social media to talk about it and so it donates a little value for bitcoin.
Then, they can get their profits.

noormcs5

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Quote from: WinslowIII on May 03, 2019, 06:35:31 PM

So apparently China will announce their decision in 4 days about mining crypto legality. Here's one scenario:

-They say no more mining, 70% of the hashrate disappears immediately, giving other miners a much larger reward than before. Price crashes as they sell for more profits, and it takes time for other miners to take up the slack in other countries. After things settle out price starts rising again in time for next halving.

What do you think? is there another more likely scenario?

Whatever the decision will be, it will only effect the Chinese community and will have no impact globally and on bitcoin price. We all know now that News from China these days are only to create Fud and therefore, it has much more less impact on bitcoin price and volume.

malcovi2

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Oh cmon, Didnt some of the Chinese bitcoin miners shifted some of their mining facilities to Mongolia? I think read before that the electricity is cheap and the cold weather is suitable for operating.

nc50lc

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Quote from: WinslowIII on May 04, 2019, 10:05:14 PM

Isn't a large % of litecoin being mined in China as well? let's not forget the original shitcoin.

But we're on "Bitcoin Forum > Economy > Economics > Speculation", it's best to talk about "Bitcoin".

Here, we should be talking about the relation of the possible decision with the market, as I said above, not much of a "buzz".
Miners do it every time: SELL. Banning mining operations in China might slightly affect the market but not that much since they aren't the majority of the traders.

And here's one fun part:
It's a very very good news (for non-Chinese citizens) if OP posted it here: Bitcoin > Mining > Mining speculation.
Low total Hashrate=Low Difficulty=More Coins.

WinslowIII

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Quote from: BlackPanda on May 04, 2019, 09:20:44 PM

Quote from: pooya87 on May 03, 2019, 10:18:12 PM

Quote from: WinslowIII on May 03, 2019, 06:35:31 PM

-They say no more mining, 70% of the hashrate disappears immediately,

that would have been true if 70% of the hashrate was in China which it clearly isn't.

Chinese government being unsure about bitcoin is nothing new. it has been going on for nearly as long as bitcoin existed. the more they pushed, the more it meant the small number of miners that were in China leaving China into areas outside of their jurisdiction.

For me it is the nature of the Chinese state which has indeed been going on for a long time. China seems to be closing down and they want to have services and maybe even crypto coins themselves. China as usual has made a decision that surprised many parties, I think there are still very many miners from China at this time. But if this regulation is implemented quickly, then it is likely to make a negative impact on the majority of coin prices such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Isn't a large % of litecoin being mined in China as well? let's not forget the original shitcoin.

BlackPanda

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Quote from: pooya87 on May 03, 2019, 10:18:12 PM

Quote from: WinslowIII on May 03, 2019, 06:35:31 PM

-They say no more mining, 70% of the hashrate disappears immediately,

that would have been true if 70% of the hashrate was in China which it clearly isn't.

Chinese government being unsure about bitcoin is nothing new. it has been going on for nearly as long as bitcoin existed. the more they pushed, the more it meant the small number of miners that were in China leaving China into areas outside of their jurisdiction.

For me it is the nature of the Chinese state which has indeed been going on for a long time. China seems to be closing down and they want to have services and maybe even crypto coins themselves. China as usual has made a decision that surprised many parties, I think there are still very many miners from China at this time. But if this regulation is implemented quickly, then it is likely to make a negative impact on the majority of coin prices such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: WinslowIII on May 04, 2019, 05:11:08 PM

The whole reason so much mining is done in China is the cheap electricity, so I fail to understand people who think this decision won't have any impact on price.
Another issue I'm wondering about is how are Chinese miners selling the crypto they mine since they can't legally sell it in China? have many mining rewards for the past year have been held by Chinese miners? if that's the case, and mining is stopped, could this create more selling pressure from the miners in other countries who are free to sell all the increased rewards for fiat?

hydro power is cheap during the wet season (4-6 months of the year) in places like sichuan but mines operate year round at much higher average rates. so it's not just cheap electricity that motivates chinese miners---capital flight is real. if you want to move capital offshore, you can expend on mining in RMB and take all your profits offshore.

miners can legally sell crypto in china. there's nothing illegal about p2p trading. at a time when chinese are desperate to move money outside the country, i'm sure some miners are stepping in to meet that demand.....

YuginKadoya

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Quote from: WinslowIII on May 04, 2019, 05:11:08 PM

Quote from: Jating on May 04, 2019, 05:04:06 PM

Quote from: WinslowIII on May 03, 2019, 06:35:31 PM

So apparently China will announce their decision in 4 days about mining crypto legality. Here's one scenario:

-They say no more mining, 70% of the hashrate disappears immediately, giving other miners a much larger reward than before. Price crashes as they sell for more profits, and it takes time for other miners to take up the slack in other countries. After things settle out price starts rising again in time for next halving.

What do you think? is there another more likely scenario?

70% where do you get that number?

Of course if they stop or ban mining then the price could be affected negatively. But I think big miners have already a plan B in place in case Chinese government banned bitcoin mining. And I don't think they will be caught with their pants down.

Maybe this time they already have moved somewhere else, so there will be net effect, but I don't think it will be on long term though.

The whole reason so much mining is done in China is the cheap electricity, so I fail to understand people who think this decision won't have any impact on price.
Another issue I'm wondering about is how are Chinese miners selling the crypto they mine since they can't legally sell it in China? have many mining rewards for the past year have been held by Chinese miners? if that's the case, and mining is stopped, could this create more selling pressure from the miners in other countries who are free to sell all the increased rewards for fiat?

Because of the number of Hashrate that the article indicated can be a bluff and China can never have such percentage on the mining pool, There is a second percentage that the Hashrate are all unknown and many of us is not consider that a lot of Hashrates was because of China, We can not take a mere hearsay can be viable and the only conclusion, We should take direct research about it,

But considering the fact that there might be an effect for miners when mining will be really stopped in China's part, I guess it can only be a slight change with the pace If they would want to really stop mining in their country so be it, We don't really need them.

WinslowIII

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Quote from: Jating on May 04, 2019, 05:04:06 PM

Quote from: WinslowIII on May 03, 2019, 06:35:31 PM

So apparently China will announce their decision in 4 days about mining crypto legality. Here's one scenario:

-They say no more mining, 70% of the hashrate disappears immediately, giving other miners a much larger reward than before. Price crashes as they sell for more profits, and it takes time for other miners to take up the slack in other countries. After things settle out price starts rising again in time for next halving.

What do you think? is there another more likely scenario?

70% where do you get that number?

Of course if they stop or ban mining then the price could be affected negatively. But I think big miners have already a plan B in place in case Chinese government banned bitcoin mining. And I don't think they will be caught with their pants down.

Maybe this time they already have moved somewhere else, so there will be net effect, but I don't think it will be on long term though.

The whole reason so much mining is done in China is the cheap electricity, so I fail to understand people who think this decision won't have any impact on price.
Another issue I'm wondering about is how are Chinese miners selling the crypto they mine since they can't legally sell it in China? have many mining rewards for the past year have been held by Chinese miners? if that's the case, and mining is stopped, could this create more selling pressure from the miners in other countries who are free to sell all the increased rewards for fiat?

Jating

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Quote from: WinslowIII on May 03, 2019, 06:35:31 PM

So apparently China will announce their decision in 4 days about mining crypto legality. Here's one scenario:

-They say no more mining, 70% of the hashrate disappears immediately, giving other miners a much larger reward than before. Price crashes as they sell for more profits, and it takes time for other miners to take up the slack in other countries. After things settle out price starts rising again in time for next halving.

What do you think? is there another more likely scenario?

70% where do you get that number?

Of course if they stop or ban mining then the price could be affected negatively. But I think big miners have already a plan B in place in case Chinese government banned bitcoin mining. And I don't think they will be caught with their pants down.

Maybe this time they already have moved somewhere else, so there will be net effect, but I don't think it will be on long term though.

seoincorporation

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Quote from: WinslowIII on May 03, 2019, 06:35:31 PM

So apparently China will announce their decision in 4 days about mining crypto legality. Here's one scenario:

-They say no more mining, 70% of the hashrate disappears immediately, giving other miners a much larger reward than before. Price crashes as they sell for more profits, and it takes time for other miners to take up the slack in other countries. After things settle out price starts rising again in time for next halving.

What do you think? is there another more likely scenario?

Maybe the bump and btc going to $6k is a signal saying china will not ban bitcoin, or maybe is a small bump before the desicion. At the end any desition god or bad will affect bitcoin price. I would say china will not ban mining, but lets see..

chenille

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Quote from: 2chase on May 04, 2019, 04:11:59 PM

It seems to me that we all should not panic and expect any catastrophic scenarios, even if China responds rather harshly about this issue, then I don’t think that this will lead to a sharp drop in the price of bitcoin. There may be a slight drawdown in the price, but no more than that.

I don't think it will affect Bitcoin price, only hashrate if something happens at all. The Chinese government has announced a ban of mining many times but never forced any action and maybe that's what will happen this time again. If they are really going to enforce a complete ban of mining the big firms will shut down in first line but all private miners can still be undetected. China is a big country with huge population and no chance to spot private miners.

Topic: China mining decision May 7 - page 2. (Read 415 times)