China tells state banks to prepare for a massive dollar dump - page 2.

Vinaa77

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Quote from: Hydrogen on October 03, 2022, 06:43:41 PM

Would anyone here recommend selling the US dollar to buy the chinese yuan?

If you dumped assets to fund purchasing something today. What would it be?

One of the advantages of China is that it can use the yuan to buy goods from other countries. In contrast to other countries in general, which have to exchange into dollars to buy goods from abroad. In this case, international transactions run smoothly against China. However, small countries or developing countries cannot take aggressive decisions, because their currencies do not apply to international transactions.

But the Dollar remains the number one currency in force throughout the world, so we cannot switch to using Yuan. USA forces countries to use dollars. Of course in this case we have to see how far the influence of Yuan on global business.

DrBeer

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It's no secret that:
1. The domestic economy of China is now going through a very difficult period, and the crisis has not gone away, moreover, it is artificially contained. "Coercion" to the yuan is most likely aimed at stabilizing internal problems. Wherein..
2. ... the state really needs the dollar, because China's economy is tied to Western technologies, investments, and for the next 10 years the West (read the United States) will not only withdraw its production from China, but will also prohibit the construction of any production in China for the next 10 years.
One simple question - how will China cope with these problems without a stable currency?

With this manipulation, China does not give up the dollar, because. without it, the Chinese economy will collapse quickly and with certainty. But he is trying with one easy manipulation to solve 2 of his problems - artificially raise the value of the falling yuan, and fill the "bins" of the state with dollars, which in any case will not lose their value, and will support both the government and the economy

There was a topic - something from the field "More than 20 countries abandoned the dollar" - ask which countries made such a "smart step"

Threat and their rulers for some reason, quietly, keep their not the most honest income in the same dollar. Well, everything is as always, for the fighters with the dollar and the USA

Obito

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They're dumping dollar because they're experiencing a housing market crisis and I think that going back to yuan and making it more valuable might be their solution to this problem because I mean in an economic perspective, US dollar is a reserve currency right? And wouldn't accumulating as many of it would be the best course of action?

bittraffic

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Quote from: pooya87 on October 04, 2022, 08:13:44 AM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on October 04, 2022, 07:03:55 AM

Although, isn't China still one of the largest HODLers of United State debt, and U.S. Dollars? Why would they start dumping an asset that they are largely exposed to, and crash the price of that asset? Do they truly want to crash the currency of U.S. economy, the largest importer of their exports?

Good questions and I'm afraid we will have a better answer for them in the future. For now it is worth knowing that China has been slowly pulling out of US economy for months now. A large number of businesses already left US, a lot of Chinese companies pulled out of US stock exchange and investors also pulled their money out.

It is also worth knowing that if they go ahead with the plans to bring Taiwan back to China, most probably US is going to do the same they did to Russia which is to sanction them! In which case US will no longer be "largest importer of their exports" and the incentive to baghold USD is no longer there for the Chinese.

Economic war still for both countries seems to be in constant bitter to each other. This will also result in China's demand for its importer to use Yuan for thier transaction. It could be beneficial to them but will also cripple other economies. It would only appear US and China are destroying the value of the currencies of other countries.

If we are in crypto where do you suggest buying Yuan? I was hoping to actaully get some RMB or Yuan stablecoin but there is none even the p2p in binance.

pooya87

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on October 04, 2022, 07:03:55 AM

Although, isn't China still one of the largest HODLers of United State debt, and U.S. Dollars? Why would they start dumping an asset that they are largely exposed to, and crash the price of that asset? Do they truly want to crash the currency of U.S. economy, the largest importer of their exports?

Good questions and I'm afraid we will have a better answer for them in the future. For now it is worth knowing that China has been slowly pulling out of US economy for months now. A large number of businesses already left US, a lot of Chinese companies pulled out of US stock exchange and investors also pulled their money out.

It is also worth knowing that if they go ahead with the plans to bring Taiwan back to China, most probably US is going to do the same they did to Russia which is to sanction them! In which case US will no longer be "largest importer of their exports" and the incentive to baghold USD is no longer there for the Chinese.

stompix

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on October 04, 2022, 07:03:55 AM

Why would they start dumping an asset that they are largely exposed to, and crash the price of that asset? Do they truly want to crash the currency of U.S. economy, the largest importer of their exports?

They are not dumping it to crash the USD, as obviously they can't do that, they are desperately selling $ for yuan to stop the yuan from crashing, a completely different story in reality! It's literally in the first line:

Quote

Reuters reported that China told state-owned banks to get ready to sell dollars and buy yuan in an effort to prop up the local currency.

and a little more down the article:

Quote

On Thursday, the yuan fell 0.9% to 7.1340 against the dollar and is on track for its worst annual decline since 1994, having lost more than 11% so far this year. Earlier this week, China's offshore yuan this week depreciated to a record-low against the greenback, and its domestic unit fell to its weakest level since the 2008 financial crisis.

They are dumping reserves and that's what every country would do in such situations and that's the main reason foreign currency reserves are held in the first place, when you're own currency is in trouble you increase demand by buying it with reserves when you want to devalue it you buy $ or Euros and weaken it. It's all a matter of how big those are and if it's worth long term to do it, as numerous countries have failed, and some have decided it's not worth it and they can't stop it anyhow so they nearly gave up on this method, like Turkey for example.

Wind_FURY

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Although, isn't China still one of the largest HODLers of United State debt, and U.S. Dollars? Why would they start dumping an asset that they are largely exposed to, and crash the price of that asset? Do they truly want to crash the currency of U.S. economy, the largest importer of their exports?

stompix

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Quote from: Hydrogen on October 03, 2022, 06:43:41 PM

It appears china is dumping the US dollar to buy more of their own native currency the yuan.
This approach contrasts sharply with china's past strategy of devaluing the yuan to boost chinese exports.

Because it's one thing to devalue your currency by a few points to keep the balance between imports and exports, and it's a different thing when it dumps to the lowest value in 10 years and for a decade you've become a net food importer, importing 100 billion of food mainly from, guess who, the US. Chian is heavenly dependent on soybeans, corn, and pork, not even counting oil and other raw materials from Australia for example, but food security is the top priority for the CCP, the ghost of the 59-61 famine won't let them sleep at night if even a slight danger is threatening this.

That's why they are auctioning stockpiles after a stockpile of soybeans and corn and pork to keep prices stable,

Quote

18 Apr 2022 China auctions 502,900 mt of soybean imports from reserves
On May 07, 2022 China to auction 314,000 tons of imported soybeans
Sep 29, 2022 China would auction off 500,000 MT of imported soybeans from state-owned reserves

Pork costs in China, the world’s biggest consumer, rose an average of 22.5% last month
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/13/chinese-pork-prices-surge-to-new-high-prompting-authorities-to-act

Each country has its own priorities and each government sees different dangers and different things that might trigger the population to revolt, for some its a guy getting shot in the street because of his color, for others is the price of pork for others is a piece of cloth on women's head.
Cina will sacrifice half or all of its growth to keep food prices at bay, that's a line nobody will dare cross.

palle11

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Quote from: Hydrogen on October 03, 2022, 06:43:41 PM

Would anyone here recommend selling the US dollar to buy the chinese yuan?

I don't know who wants to do that if not the few patriotic Chinese.

I think it is just an ""economic war" that is still going on between China. This has been on for a while and China is finding means to pull the dollar down because it is a strong factor for international trade. Whoever would sell off dollar to buy Yuan in real life trade is only trying to export Chinese products and reasonable to convert into Yuan for trade but I don't know of who is hodling Yuan above the dollar. So it is just an exercise that is within the place of China. China is trying to protect her currency for further fall and the CBDC is all for giving the people that option for having trade with digital market.

davis196

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The economy of China isn't in it's best condition. I read news about the real estate bubble in China and the growing numbers of young people struggling to find jobs after they graduate. However, this might be western propaganda. I just don't trust any mainstream media anymore.
The OPEC countries agreed to reduce their oil production, so the oil prices will stop decreasing. This combined with a strong dollar might lead to a global recession.
I couldn't care less about the monetary policy of the People's Bank in China. I don't care if the yuan is going to have higher or lower value than the US dollar. Maybe we should ask someone, who lives in China about this topic.

Kakmakr

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China has also bought a LOT of Gold over several years, so you can see what direction they are going in with their plans for the future. ( Globally, China has the highest reserves of gold at $3.42 trillion. ) - Source : https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/which-nations-have-been-buying-gold

People seem to think that China are buying up their Yuan to boost the Chinese exports, but I think Russia and China are entering into a "Currency War" with the West. China had real concerns about the future of the Dollar and the euro, and that the trade war could descend into a currency war. (Buying Gold as a Store of value, seem to be the end goal for them to buffer them, in the event that the global markets will collapse in the future)

pooya87

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Quote from: Hydrogen on October 03, 2022, 06:43:41 PM

Would anyone here recommend selling the US dollar to buy the chinese yuan?

There is definitely an economic war going on which is getting more intense and China has been attacking US in any form they can, so targeting the dollar is always on the agenda.
But unless you can find a more reliable source than Reuters (which is well known for spreading propaganda), I'd say no.

Quote from: Hydrogen on October 03, 2022, 06:43:41 PM

This approach contrasts sharply with china's past strategy of devaluing the yuan to boost chinese exports.

Keep in mind that China only devalues Yuan as long as it keeps their prices competitive not indefinitely. These days that their competitors in other regions (specifically in EU) are struggling with the massively increasing production costs, that gives China a much better advantage where they don't need to devalue their currency as much to remain competitive. The winning of that competition is ensured as other currencies are heavily devalued.

Don Pedro Dinero

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Quote from: Hydrogen on October 03, 2022, 06:43:41 PM

Would anyone here recommend selling the US dollar to buy the chinese yuan?

That is kind of trying to time the market.

The normal response to news like this is to expect the Yuan to rise against the dollar in the short term, so a priori a short move like the one you are talking about would make sense. But markets are very irrational and you never know what might happen. If I were to consider doing so, I would only do so with a small part of my portfolio.

Hydrogen

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Quote

Reuters reported that China told state-owned banks to get ready to sell dollars and buy yuan in an effort to prop up the local currency.
The move could stem the yuan's fall, as it remains on track for its largest annual loss against the dollar since 1994.
A hawkish Fed has pushed the dollar to 20-year highs this year, pressuring currencies around the world.

The People's Bank of China has told major state-run banks to prepare to shed dollar holdings while snapping up offshore yuan, which has continued to fall despite prior interventions, sources told Reuters.

The scale of this latest effort to prop up the yuan will be big and could provide a floor to the Chinese currency, according to the report.

The amount of dollars to be sold hasn't been decided yet, but Reuters said it will primarily involve the state banks' currency reserves. Their offshore branches, including those based in Hong Kong, New York and London, were ordered to review offshore yuan holdings and check to see that dollar reserves are ready.

On Thursday, the yuan fell 0.9% to 7.1340 against the dollar and is on track for its worst annual decline since 1994, having lost more than 11% so far this year. Earlier this week, China's offshore yuan this week depreciated to a record-low against the greenback, and its domestic unit fell to its weakest level since the 2008 financial crisis.

The Federal Reserve's hawkish policy path has bolstered the dollar to 20-year highs this year, putting pressure on other central banks and triggering a "reverse currency war."

While a weaker currency can sometimes be beneficial, as it means exports get cheaper, the yuan's recent decline below the psychological threshold of 7-per-dollar has raised concerns.

The People's Bank of China has consistently imposed a strong bias to its currency reference rate to help support the yuan. Central bank officials have also issued verbal warnings against speculating on the yuan and increased the cost of shorting the currency.

But it has refrained from raising benchmark rates and instead has been easing them in an effort to spark growth in an economy that's been dragged down by COVID-19 lockdowns, a real estate crash, and supply chain snags.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/china-bank-dollar-yuan-currency-markets-economy-beijing-fed-hike-2022-9

....

It appears china is dumping the US dollar to buy more of their own native currency the yuan.

This approach contrasts sharply with china's past strategy of devaluing the yuan to boost chinese exports.

Exports being the backbone of china's economy. Any move china makes which could carry negative effects on export markets bears watching.

Rising fossil fuel prices also carry a negative impact on the shipping of chinese exports overseas.

Would anyone here recommend selling the US dollar to buy the chinese yuan?

If you dumped assets to fund purchasing something today. What would it be?

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