Topic: [CLOSED] BTC Guild - Pays TxFees+NMC, Stratum, VarDiff, Private Servers - page 195. (Read 903163 times)

The luck discussion and the confusion from some folks reminds me of poker, a game where luck matters in descending order: hand to hand; hour to hour; session to session; week to week; month to month; year to year; career.

The age of online poker helped bring that into focus for me when I got to the point where I was playing more hands in a few days than live players played in a year. I've seen live players think they were either gods or terribly unlucky because they've either won or lost for months.

In reality it's little more than a streak—statistically speaking—and it's easier to understand that with hand databases and charts that stretch out into the hundreds of thousands or millions. When you're playing 2,000 hands a day (and there are lots of players who play(ed) far more than that), you ride those same streaks, but they play out in hours, not months. That brought me a lot of clarity in understanding variance.

With mining, the factors governing your rewards are your share of the total network, difficulty, and luck (which is an anti-fancy word for variance). All pools do is decrease variance to the point where mere mortals can eke out a slim profit margin or have fun trying. The larger the pool, the lower your personal variance...

...over the long term.

Everything else is immaterial.

It messes with my brain and I can't stop micromanaging.

That's how random events work

Quoted for added effect.  This really is the key takeaway.  Bitcoin probabilities are inherently "awkward" to look at under a microscope.  You can look at the last 2 days for an example of that, the network has had more than one period of an hour without a block from *any* pool on the network.  It has also had periods of 7 blocks in 20 minutes.

It also shows that people spend way too much time MicroMonitoring the pools. I'm all for checking on your equipment regularly. I've had Blades stop working, USB hubs fail, Some ASICminer USBs require being replugged in, The Pi's memory card go bad on my Bitfury, etc. But i refuse to second quess the pools i'm on based on a few days observation. I understand Luck, when it is good and when it is bad and just accept that it is what it is. I understand constantly diminishing returns. Heck i even started a thread about how Mining will always be a losing proposition.

I rarely consider the pools at fault, and on those rare occasions when i do, I post and accept the Pool Operater's response as gospel(unless i don't understand, then we go back and forth until i do understand).

Basically, walk away from your miners, check them a couple times a day to insure they are running. Quiting trying to verify that the pool is working correctly, the computer is smarter than you are and less likely to make a mistake. Accept that Luck and Variance will mess with your head.

Exactly. I don't get people whining so hard when there is a round of bad luck. You can see the whining in all pool's thread as soon as a few hours of bad luck arrive... Which is ridiculous and just demonstrates that people has no idea of how this work.

Additionally, BTCGuild has been very lucky on average this last month, so you really do not understand what's going on if you complain. In the Eligius's thread people was already going for their forks when we hit a 0.1% block... Which is just stupid.

Never looked at a shift details before. Cool, thanks.

There's always people hopping from one to the other thinking they can game luck.  In the end they'll end up behind though.  You can't hop PPLNS, meaning if you were successful in moving to PPS and making more out of that, it was only due to luck that you did so.

The pool has been 1/7th - 1/8th PPS historically.  We're a little closer to 1/6th at the moment due to the bad luck lasting about a full day.  You can view it yourself by looking at the detailed view of a shift.  It shows you how many shares in that shift were contribued by PPS users.

Do you have any stats on PPS and PPLNS % on BTCGuild? How drastically does it swing during a period like this?

I apologize if my responses in the last day have been aggressive.  One thing most don't realize is that while luck hurts your earnings, it *costs* me money when luck is this bad.  I've lost nearly 40 BTC from luck (even more if you count the fact that I haven't earned any coins in the last 24 hours roughly), and another 25 from an orphaned block just as this bad luck kicked off.  Even at 7.5% fee on PPS, when luck is this bad I'm paying out a lot more than I'm making off the fee when the blocks finally do hit.

It does all even out in the long run though.  You can still see our luck since September 27th is holding strong at 103.9% currently.

Your 24 hour earnings have been decreasing 30-40% every 10 days roughly due to network difficulty changes.  That's an inescapable rule of mining, your earnings are mostly dictated by network difficulty, the rest is variance.  Right now the 24-hour luck is ~50% of expectation, so your 24 hour earnings would be reflecting half of your expected earnings at neutral luck.

I definitely had .4 .5 earnings at BTC Guild when I first started. It fluctuated a little bit but never went down to .1. I don't understand all the technical aspects so when I see such coincidences happen when BTC prices rise so quickly what else to believe? So from what you just said my 24 hour earnings will increase again?

PPS is the only payment system that is not subject to short term luck.  Your always ".4 or .5" earnings are a myth by the way, difficulty has changed many times over "several weeks".  Luck has always fluctuated a decent amount, it's just that for the last 5 weeks BTC Guild's luck has been neutral/positive.

This bad luck has not even lasted a full 24 hours, and it's already looking like it's about to swing back positive based on recent shift block solves.

From reading previous posts all I get out of is luck? I've had static almost no change in payout until BTC price went up, and all this boils down to is just luck? It's an odd coincidence that soon as BTC rises my earnings start to drop. Are there pools out there that this behavior doesn't happen or are they all based on luck also?

Your answer is in the previous series of posts.

Four of the last seven blocks doesn't seem too bad. Time to switch back? That was a pretty ugly swing though. Glad it happened after the last difficulty change to suck up the last little bit of easier mining.

Been mining at BTC Guild for several weeks now. My 24 hour earnings always have been .4 or .5. All of a sudden since BTC prices have gone up my 24 hour earnings have dropped to .1 from a .4 in less then 24 hours. Can someone in laymans terms let me why this is happening? Is it time to look for another pool? What can I do to get back my original .4 24 hour earnings. My hash rate has actually increased just a tad and still the earnings dropped. I don't understand totally all the math behind everything, but when BTC is at an all time high, it just seems a little weird my earnings all of a sudden drop when I've been mining for weeks with the same output.

It appears that its just difficulty catching up with the increasing hash rate so it's returning back to an average of 10 minute blocks. with the previously exploding hash rate it was always running ahead.

It's not just here.  I notice that Ghash.io is at 4 hours on a block after a pair of two hour blocks - that's really bad luck for over there.

Hmmmm.   Load balance you say ??

Of course, it would be nice if the cats wandering through asking if we were the shellfish pool recently theorized would come back through and offer us a, "Dude, my bad. Sorry about your luck." Somehow I don't think that will happen.