Bitmain doesn't do volume pricing, so there's not much money to save in a group buy. You can actually contact GND/cryptoboreas directly if you want to host a few units, they will definitely beat lee's service.
Also, I forgot to lock this thread. Locked!
Topic: [CLOSED] [Group Buy + Group Hosting] 3.5TH/s Avalon6 + Platinum PSUs! (Read 7385 times)
December 15, 2015, 04:25:13 PM
December 15, 2015, 03:32:03 PM
Possibility of a group buy with the same set up at GND, but with either batch 8, or 9 of the S7? I am interested in lee's group buy, but the .10$/kWh is not near as good as what it seems Great North Data can offer.
November 15, 2015, 02:03:43 PM
If I was to make a comment, it would be that group buys need to deal directly with the manufacturer, NOT the distributor.
Manufacturer is much more flexible (within reason) as they know their bottom line.
Distributor is limited by the MSRP and needs to go back and forth.
At least this is how I see it and that's how it worked with a large and successful SP30 group buy.
I agree with that, but when I directly contacted Avalon they didn't want to directly deal with me--they told me to contact BlockC instead.Manufacturer is much more flexible (within reason) as they know their bottom line.
Distributor is limited by the MSRP and needs to go back and forth.
At least this is how I see it and that's how it worked with a large and successful SP30 group buy.
As for bitmain, their volume pricing is laughable. 100 units will give us a 0.5% discount.
I guess we'll have to wait until prices come down further.
November 15, 2015, 01:27:15 PM
If I was to make a comment, it would be that group buys need to deal directly with the manufacturer, NOT the distributor.
Manufacturer is much more flexible (within reason) as they know their bottom line.
Distributor is limited by the MSRP and needs to go back and forth.
At least this is how I see it and that's how it worked with a large and successful SP30 group buy.
GB in S7 at below listed price is impossible with miners quoted at $2200 (B6)-$3200 (B1, 3,5) on ebay.
Manufacturer is much more flexible (within reason) as they know their bottom line.
Distributor is limited by the MSRP and needs to go back and forth.
At least this is how I see it and that's how it worked with a large and successful SP30 group buy.
the price is to way to high hence the lack of interest. Plus, I think more people wanted the avalon 6 as a home miner to mess with settings (underclock/undervolt..etc) and such not necessarily to be hosted for 3 months than try to ship home. A group buy of the S7 might be better.
GB in S7 at below listed price is impossible with miners quoted at $2200 (B6)-$3200 (B1, 3,5) on ebay.
November 15, 2015, 01:08:55 PM
the price is to way to high hence the lack of interest. Plus, I think more people wanted the avalon 6 as a home miner to mess with settings (underclock/undervolt..etc) and such not necessarily to be hosted for 3 months than try to ship home. A group buy of the S7 might be better.
November 15, 2015, 12:41:09 PM
Well then, the deadline's come and gone and we didn't get enough interest. Too bad, I was looking forward to picking up a few Avalon6 units for myself! Perhaps we can try again with a later batch.
Those who reserved units please PM me with the address you would like your deposits refunded to.
Those who reserved units please PM me with the address you would like your deposits refunded to.
It's a pity.
Hosting fees are really good and even PSU lease is an idea which should be tested, but units are way overpriced, much more so with BTC at current level.
At 450 USD per BTC it would have been very different (well, if Avalon does not increase their price at 2000 USD each).
spiccioli
November 15, 2015, 12:22:57 PM
Well then, the deadline's come and gone and we didn't get enough interest. Too bad, I was looking forward to picking up a few Avalon6 units for myself! Perhaps we can try again with a later batch.
Those who reserved units please PM me with the address you would like your deposits refunded to.
Those who reserved units please PM me with the address you would like your deposits refunded to.
November 15, 2015, 07:04:57 AM
Sorry to say...I'm out....a bit to close to call...and if I had no miners at all I'd probably do this just for the 'gamble' and to play with an Avalon6 toy..but got 2 KNC Titan scrypt miners that likely will make more in LTC then in elec all the way thru 2016... so I'm gonna pass on this
anyway good luck...(officially in 'lurk' mode now)
Searing
anyway good luck...(officially in 'lurk' mode now)
Searing
Hey, no hard feelings.
6 to go before we hit MOQ!
November 15, 2015, 01:53:31 AM
Payment done 
November 15, 2015, 12:10:39 AM
Is possible to pay the miner (Blockc.co) by wire or credit card? I can pay all other costs in btc, btw...
I'm not sure, I've send blockc an email.
A wire works, but they don't accept credit cards.
As a general comment: We've got just under 24 hours until we hit the deadline for reservations. If we don't hit the MOQ, we don't hit the MOQ, but if you are interested I suggest you make up your mind sooner rather than later!
Sorry to say...I'm out....a bit to close to call...and if I had no miners at all I'd probably do this just for the 'gamble' and to play with an Avalon6 toy..but got 2 KNC Titan scrypt miners that likely will make more in LTC then in elec all the way thru 2016... so I'm gonna pass on this
anyway good luck...(officially in 'lurk' mode now)
Searing
November 14, 2015, 11:58:16 PM
Reservations close at Noon EST (UTC -5) on November 15th, so before then!
Sounds like a decent deal not sure why everyone is slacking
I sent you a pm
November 14, 2015, 06:29:31 PM
Is possible to pay the miner (Blockc.co) by wire or credit card? I can pay all other costs in btc, btw...
I'm not sure, I've send blockc an email.
A wire works, but they don't accept credit cards.
As a general comment: We've got just under 24 hours until we hit the deadline for reservations. If we don't hit the MOQ, we don't hit the MOQ, but if you are interested I suggest you make up your mind sooner rather than later!
Then i want one avalon 6. btw, when i must send the 0.06 btc?
Reservations close at Noon EST (UTC -5) on November 15th, so before then!
November 14, 2015, 05:54:19 PM
Is possible to pay the miner (Blockc.co) by wire or credit card? I can pay all other costs in btc, btw...
I'm not sure, I've send blockc an email.
A wire works, but they don't accept credit cards.
As a general comment: We've got just under 24 hours until we hit the deadline for reservations. If we don't hit the MOQ, we don't hit the MOQ, but if you are interested I suggest you make up your mind sooner rather than later!
Then i want one avalon 6. btw, when i must send the 0.06 btc?
November 14, 2015, 03:51:19 PM
Is possible to pay the miner (Blockc.co) by wire or credit card? I can pay all other costs in btc, btw...
I'm not sure, I've send blockc an email.
A wire works, but they don't accept credit cards.
As a general comment: We've got just under 24 hours until we hit the deadline for reservations. If we don't hit the MOQ, we don't hit the MOQ, but if you are interested I suggest you make up your mind sooner rather than later!
November 14, 2015, 12:33:56 PM
Is possible to pay the miner (Blockc.co) by wire or credit card? I can pay all other costs in btc, btw...
I'm not sure, I've send blockc an email.
November 14, 2015, 02:19:13 AM
ps: the calculation posted brings up something important: the PSU lease. By assuming $10/month for the lease, after 8 months the [half-]PSU is completely paid for. does it become property of the leasee, or do the monthly lease fees become monthly rental fees? Either way, that adds about $60-80 to the above calculations ROI.
The lease is exactly that, a rental over a pre-determined period of time. The initial price I have set for the 3-month contract is to take into account the cost of shipping the PSU's to the DC, any potential failures/down-time (with their return shipping), and having to return PSU's back to me if anyone/everyone decides to end their contract after the initial period. If anyone intends to re-new at that point for another 3 month or longer contract, we can re-negotiate (in advance of the renewal date) a more favourable lease rate given shipping won't be required again.
I can't say for certain how much cheaper the renewal rate will be until I get an idea of failures and/or downtime, but it will absolutely not be going up. I am not looking at gouging anyone here, only trying to provide a more feasible solution to the ownership dilemma, while still covering my bases in case of short contracts/failures, since every failed PSU will need the unit returned to me and a new one shipped out to the DC as quickly as possible (while keeping extras on hand on top of that).
Another issue that could arise if the GB were to strictly purchase the PSU's, who would be responsible for replacing a failed unit outside of the initial purchase? Those members whose serial numbers are tied to it? It's these types of problems I'm trying to help avoid. Also, if you factor in having to sell off all the used PSU packages at the end of different hosting periods in order to distribute the assets fairly to those who are pulling out, you will take a substantial hit on the re-sale value, and have to pay shipping to somewhere in NA. This seems to me to be a reasonably priced alternative to any of that.
In regards to a yearly/unlimited plan, that would be nice but I don't think anyone would be willing to get into a contract (and if they do, to keep that contract) longer than their hosting commitment for pretty obvious reasons. I am fully willing to negotiate cheaper lease rates if anyone signs longer contracts with GND, but to my knowledge for the scope of this GB, only 3 month commitments are initially available.
November 13, 2015, 08:37:07 PM
Is possible to pay the miner (Blockc.co) by wire or credit card? I can pay all other costs in btc, btw...
November 13, 2015, 05:19:26 PM
If you guys have python installed on your computer you can run this python script I wrote. It takes the halving into account, accounts for faster blocktimes when the difficulty increases faster, and allows difficulty increases to change over time. Please don't trust random code on the internet! There's nothing malicious here, but you don't know that unless you can read it (so don't run it if you don't know what you're doing). Source is here:
Of course, if you want a better simulator it'll need to factor in the decline in hosting/PSU costs and the inevitable decrease of difficulty that will happen after the halving. However, I think my calculator is probably the most accurate one out there (its just not very easy to use).
It might be interesting coming up with software that calculates the difficulty based on a distribution of hardware by maintenance cost, factoring in how new hardware coming into the market forces old hardware off.
Finksy doesn't want to promise a specific rate after three months, and I don't blame him at all for that. He wants to see the board/PSU failure rates before he requotes (remember, he's promised to cover failures out of his own pocket). The one thing he has guaranteed is that rates won't go up. I know it's frustrating, but we will have to wait and see on that front.
Code:
# This is written in python 3
# You can use this in your own projects if you wish
# Note that pricing and hosting costs assume 50 units purchased
def truncate(f, n): #This function is from stackOverflow
'''Truncates/pads a float f to n decimal places without rounding'''
s = '{}'.format(f)
if 'e' in s or 'E' in s:
return '{0:.{1}f}'.format(f, n)
i, p, d = s.partition('.')
return '.'.join([i, (d+'0'*n)[:n]])
###################
# HARCODED VALUES #
###################
#Cost in USD of miner (fixed costs only)
minerCost = 1395.5
#Monthly hosting rate, USD
minerPowerCost = 45.04
#Monthly PSU cost, per miner, USD
PSUCost = 10
#Simulation ending block number ()
simulationEnd = 472500 #this is ~1 yr after halving
#Revenue of miner $/day @ anticipated start block
#You may need to calculate this at bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
minerRevenue = 8.55
#This is the block the simulation begins at
startBlock = 385389 #this block should be mined on November 27th
#This is the predicted difficulty at startBlock
startDiff = 68500000000 #this is my projected difficulty on the 27th
#this is the starting % increase every two weeks
expectedDiffIncrease = 3.00
#this is the % change in difficulty increase every two weeks
diffIncreaseDelta = -3.5
############################################
#A couple of calculations before we begin: #
############################################
#Gets daily total recurring costs for us
minerPowerCost += PSUCost
minerPowerCost /= 30
breakeven = False
revenue = 0
daysElapsed = 0 #in days
currentBlock = startBlock
blocksSinceLastBlock = 0;
currentDiff = startDiff
print("Simulation start: \nDifficulty is {}. \nProfit is ${} per day.\nExpected difficulty increase is {}%, with future increases changing by {}%.".format(truncate(currentDiff, 2), truncate(minerRevenue - minerPowerCost, 2), truncate(expectedDiffIncrease, 2), truncate(diffIncreaseDelta, 2)))
print("Note that daily profit does include hosting cost.")
while True:
#1 loop = 1 block
if (currentBlock % 2016 == 0): #checks if difficulty needs to be adjusted
currentDiff *= (100 + expectedDiffIncrease)/100
minerRevenue *= (100 - expectedDiffIncrease)/100
print("Difficulty is now {} (+{}%). Profit is now ${} per day".format(truncate(currentDiff, 2), truncate(expectedDiffIncrease, 2), truncate(minerRevenue - minerPowerCost, 2)))
expectedDiffIncrease *= (100 + diffIncreaseDelta)/100
if (currentBlock == 420000): #checks if block reward needs to be halved
minerRevenue /= 2
print("The block reward has halved. Profit is now ${} per day".format(truncate(minerRevenue - minerPowerCost, 2)))
if (minerRevenue - minerPowerCost <= 0):
print("Miner is no longer profitable. Ending simulation\n")
break
if (blocksSinceLastBlock) > int((144*(100+expectedDiffIncrease)/100)//1): #calculates real time, note that this accounts for less time between blocks when diff spikes
daysElapsed += 1
revenue += minerRevenue - minerPowerCost
blocksSinceLastBlock -= (144*(100+expectedDiffIncrease)/100)//1 #this takes care of a difficulty increase mid-day
if currentBlock == simulationEnd:
print("End of simulation reached.\n")
break
if (revenue > minerCost and breakeven == False):
print("BREAK EVEN REACHED ON DAY {}!".format(daysElapsed))
breakeven = True #hell yes
currentBlock += 1
blocksSinceLastBlock += 1
print("{} days have elapsed.".format(daysElapsed))
print("Your total revenue after hosting costs: {}".format(truncate(revenue,2)))
print("Your net gain/loss: ${}".format(truncate(revenue-minerCost,2)))
"Plausible" difficulty scenario:# You can use this in your own projects if you wish
# Note that pricing and hosting costs assume 50 units purchased
def truncate(f, n): #This function is from stackOverflow
'''Truncates/pads a float f to n decimal places without rounding'''
s = '{}'.format(f)
if 'e' in s or 'E' in s:
return '{0:.{1}f}'.format(f, n)
i, p, d = s.partition('.')
return '.'.join([i, (d+'0'*n)[:n]])
###################
# HARCODED VALUES #
###################
#Cost in USD of miner (fixed costs only)
minerCost = 1395.5
#Monthly hosting rate, USD
minerPowerCost = 45.04
#Monthly PSU cost, per miner, USD
PSUCost = 10
#Simulation ending block number ()
simulationEnd = 472500 #this is ~1 yr after halving
#Revenue of miner $/day @ anticipated start block
#You may need to calculate this at bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
minerRevenue = 8.55
#This is the block the simulation begins at
startBlock = 385389 #this block should be mined on November 27th
#This is the predicted difficulty at startBlock
startDiff = 68500000000 #this is my projected difficulty on the 27th
#this is the starting % increase every two weeks
expectedDiffIncrease = 3.00
#this is the % change in difficulty increase every two weeks
diffIncreaseDelta = -3.5
############################################
#A couple of calculations before we begin: #
############################################
#Gets daily total recurring costs for us
minerPowerCost += PSUCost
minerPowerCost /= 30
breakeven = False
revenue = 0
daysElapsed = 0 #in days
currentBlock = startBlock
blocksSinceLastBlock = 0;
currentDiff = startDiff
print("Simulation start: \nDifficulty is {}. \nProfit is ${} per day.\nExpected difficulty increase is {}%, with future increases changing by {}%.".format(truncate(currentDiff, 2), truncate(minerRevenue - minerPowerCost, 2), truncate(expectedDiffIncrease, 2), truncate(diffIncreaseDelta, 2)))
print("Note that daily profit does include hosting cost.")
while True:
#1 loop = 1 block
if (currentBlock % 2016 == 0): #checks if difficulty needs to be adjusted
currentDiff *= (100 + expectedDiffIncrease)/100
minerRevenue *= (100 - expectedDiffIncrease)/100
print("Difficulty is now {} (+{}%). Profit is now ${} per day".format(truncate(currentDiff, 2), truncate(expectedDiffIncrease, 2), truncate(minerRevenue - minerPowerCost, 2)))
expectedDiffIncrease *= (100 + diffIncreaseDelta)/100
if (currentBlock == 420000): #checks if block reward needs to be halved
minerRevenue /= 2
print("The block reward has halved. Profit is now ${} per day".format(truncate(minerRevenue - minerPowerCost, 2)))
if (minerRevenue - minerPowerCost <= 0):
print("Miner is no longer profitable. Ending simulation\n")
break
if (blocksSinceLastBlock) > int((144*(100+expectedDiffIncrease)/100)//1): #calculates real time, note that this accounts for less time between blocks when diff spikes
daysElapsed += 1
revenue += minerRevenue - minerPowerCost
blocksSinceLastBlock -= (144*(100+expectedDiffIncrease)/100)//1 #this takes care of a difficulty increase mid-day
if currentBlock == simulationEnd:
print("End of simulation reached.\n")
break
if (revenue > minerCost and breakeven == False):
print("BREAK EVEN REACHED ON DAY {}!".format(daysElapsed))
breakeven = True #hell yes
currentBlock += 1
blocksSinceLastBlock += 1
print("{} days have elapsed.".format(daysElapsed))
print("Your total revenue after hosting costs: {}".format(truncate(revenue,2)))
print("Your net gain/loss: ${}".format(truncate(revenue-minerCost,2)))
Code:
Simulation start:
Difficulty is 68500000000.00.
Profit is $6.71 per day.
Expected difficulty increase is 3.00%, with future increases changing by -3.50%.
Note that daily profit does include hosting cost.
Difficulty is now 70555000000.00 (+3.00%). Profit is now $6.45 per day
Difficulty is now 72597567250.00 (+2.89%). Profit is now $6.21 per day
Difficulty is now 74625707336.90 (+2.79%). Profit is now $5.99 per day
Difficulty is now 76637539075.80 (+2.69%). Profit is now $5.78 per day
Difficulty is now 78631295311.30 (+2.60%). Profit is now $5.58 per day
Difficulty is now 80605323051.80 (+2.51%). Profit is now $5.39 per day
Difficulty is now 82558082994.20 (+2.42%). Profit is now $5.22 per day
Difficulty is now 84488148495.90 (+2.33%). Profit is now $5.05 per day
Difficulty is now 86394204049.70 (+2.25%). Profit is now $4.90 per day
Difficulty is now 88275043314.50 (+2.17%). Profit is now $4.75 per day
Difficulty is now 90129566757.00 (+2.10%). Profit is now $4.61 per day
Difficulty is now 91956778951.50 (+2.02%). Profit is now $4.48 per day
Difficulty is now 93755785587.30 (+1.95%). Profit is now $4.36 per day
Difficulty is now 95525790229.40 (+1.88%). Profit is now $4.24 per day
Difficulty is now 97266090872.10 (+1.82%). Profit is now $4.13 per day
Difficulty is now 98976076328.90 (+1.75%). Profit is now $4.03 per day
Difficulty is now 100655222492.16 (+1.69%). Profit is now $3.93 per day
The block reward has halved. Profit is now $1.04 per day
Difficulty is now 102303088498.15 (+1.63%). Profit is now $1.00 per day
Difficulty is now 103919312827.61 (+1.57%). Profit is now $0.95 per day
Difficulty is now 105503609370.50 (+1.52%). Profit is now $0.91 per day
Difficulty is now 107055763480.00 (+1.47%). Profit is now $0.87 per day
Difficulty is now 108575628038.90 (+1.41%). Profit is now $0.83 per day
Difficulty is now 110063119558.50 (+1.37%). Profit is now $0.79 per day
Difficulty is now 111518214328.15 (+1.32%). Profit is now $0.76 per day
Difficulty is now 112940944631.03 (+1.27%). Profit is now $0.73 per day
Difficulty is now 114331395039.91 (+1.23%). Profit is now $0.69 per day
Difficulty is now 115689698804.39 (+1.18%). Profit is now $0.66 per day
Difficulty is now 117016034339.57 (+1.14%). Profit is now $0.63 per day
Difficulty is now 118310621824.20 (+1.10%). Profit is now $0.61 per day
Difficulty is now 119573719914.87 (+1.06%). Profit is now $0.58 per day
Difficulty is now 120805622581.46 (+1.03%). Profit is now $0.56 per day
Difficulty is now 122006656067.74 (+0.99%). Profit is now $0.53 per day
Difficulty is now 123177175979.67 (+0.95%). Profit is now $0.51 per day
Difficulty is now 124317564503.24 (+0.92%). Profit is now $0.49 per day
Difficulty is now 125428227752.45 (+0.89%). Profit is now $0.47 per day
Difficulty is now 126509593247.44 (+0.86%). Profit is now $0.45 per day
BREAK EVEN REACHED ON DAY 505!
Difficulty is now 127562107521.74 (+0.83%). Profit is now $0.43 per day
Difficulty is now 128586233857.42 (+0.80%). Profit is now $0.41 per day
Difficulty is now 129582450145.87 (+0.77%). Profit is now $0.39 per day
Difficulty is now 130551246871.86 (+0.74%). Profit is now $0.38 per day
Difficulty is now 131493125217.94 (+0.72%). Profit is now $0.36 per day
Difficulty is now 132408595285.90 (+0.69%). Profit is now $0.34 per day
Difficulty is now 133298174431.81 (+0.67%). Profit is now $0.33 per day
End of simulation reached.
597 days have elapsed.
Your total revenue after hosting costs: 1431.67
Your net gain/loss: $36.17
Super optimistic simulation for the hell of it:Difficulty is 68500000000.00.
Profit is $6.71 per day.
Expected difficulty increase is 3.00%, with future increases changing by -3.50%.
Note that daily profit does include hosting cost.
Difficulty is now 70555000000.00 (+3.00%). Profit is now $6.45 per day
Difficulty is now 72597567250.00 (+2.89%). Profit is now $6.21 per day
Difficulty is now 74625707336.90 (+2.79%). Profit is now $5.99 per day
Difficulty is now 76637539075.80 (+2.69%). Profit is now $5.78 per day
Difficulty is now 78631295311.30 (+2.60%). Profit is now $5.58 per day
Difficulty is now 80605323051.80 (+2.51%). Profit is now $5.39 per day
Difficulty is now 82558082994.20 (+2.42%). Profit is now $5.22 per day
Difficulty is now 84488148495.90 (+2.33%). Profit is now $5.05 per day
Difficulty is now 86394204049.70 (+2.25%). Profit is now $4.90 per day
Difficulty is now 88275043314.50 (+2.17%). Profit is now $4.75 per day
Difficulty is now 90129566757.00 (+2.10%). Profit is now $4.61 per day
Difficulty is now 91956778951.50 (+2.02%). Profit is now $4.48 per day
Difficulty is now 93755785587.30 (+1.95%). Profit is now $4.36 per day
Difficulty is now 95525790229.40 (+1.88%). Profit is now $4.24 per day
Difficulty is now 97266090872.10 (+1.82%). Profit is now $4.13 per day
Difficulty is now 98976076328.90 (+1.75%). Profit is now $4.03 per day
Difficulty is now 100655222492.16 (+1.69%). Profit is now $3.93 per day
The block reward has halved. Profit is now $1.04 per day
Difficulty is now 102303088498.15 (+1.63%). Profit is now $1.00 per day
Difficulty is now 103919312827.61 (+1.57%). Profit is now $0.95 per day
Difficulty is now 105503609370.50 (+1.52%). Profit is now $0.91 per day
Difficulty is now 107055763480.00 (+1.47%). Profit is now $0.87 per day
Difficulty is now 108575628038.90 (+1.41%). Profit is now $0.83 per day
Difficulty is now 110063119558.50 (+1.37%). Profit is now $0.79 per day
Difficulty is now 111518214328.15 (+1.32%). Profit is now $0.76 per day
Difficulty is now 112940944631.03 (+1.27%). Profit is now $0.73 per day
Difficulty is now 114331395039.91 (+1.23%). Profit is now $0.69 per day
Difficulty is now 115689698804.39 (+1.18%). Profit is now $0.66 per day
Difficulty is now 117016034339.57 (+1.14%). Profit is now $0.63 per day
Difficulty is now 118310621824.20 (+1.10%). Profit is now $0.61 per day
Difficulty is now 119573719914.87 (+1.06%). Profit is now $0.58 per day
Difficulty is now 120805622581.46 (+1.03%). Profit is now $0.56 per day
Difficulty is now 122006656067.74 (+0.99%). Profit is now $0.53 per day
Difficulty is now 123177175979.67 (+0.95%). Profit is now $0.51 per day
Difficulty is now 124317564503.24 (+0.92%). Profit is now $0.49 per day
Difficulty is now 125428227752.45 (+0.89%). Profit is now $0.47 per day
Difficulty is now 126509593247.44 (+0.86%). Profit is now $0.45 per day
BREAK EVEN REACHED ON DAY 505!
Difficulty is now 127562107521.74 (+0.83%). Profit is now $0.43 per day
Difficulty is now 128586233857.42 (+0.80%). Profit is now $0.41 per day
Difficulty is now 129582450145.87 (+0.77%). Profit is now $0.39 per day
Difficulty is now 130551246871.86 (+0.74%). Profit is now $0.38 per day
Difficulty is now 131493125217.94 (+0.72%). Profit is now $0.36 per day
Difficulty is now 132408595285.90 (+0.69%). Profit is now $0.34 per day
Difficulty is now 133298174431.81 (+0.67%). Profit is now $0.33 per day
End of simulation reached.
597 days have elapsed.
Your total revenue after hosting costs: 1431.67
Your net gain/loss: $36.17
Code:
Simulation start:
Difficulty is 68500000000.00.
Profit is $6.71 per day.
Expected difficulty increase is 1.00%, with future increases changing by -8.00%.
Note that daily profit does include hosting cost.
Difficulty is now 69185000000.00 (+1.00%). Profit is now $6.62 per day
Difficulty is now 69821502000.00 (+0.92%). Profit is now $6.55 per day
Difficulty is now 70412471192.90 (+0.84%). Profit is now $6.48 per day
Difficulty is now 70960764656.60 (+0.77%). Profit is now $6.41 per day
Difficulty is now 71469122579.00 (+0.71%). Profit is now $6.35 per day
Difficulty is now 71940162360.70 (+0.65%). Profit is now $6.30 per day
Difficulty is now 72376375133.10 (+0.60%). Profit is now $6.25 per day
Difficulty is now 72780124281.90 (+0.55%). Profit is now $6.20 per day
Difficulty is now 73153645615.60 (+0.51%). Profit is now $6.16 per day
Difficulty is now 73499048866.10 (+0.47%). Profit is now $6.12 per day
Difficulty is now 73818320248.30 (+0.43%). Profit is now $6.09 per day
Difficulty is now 74113325847.70 (+0.39%). Profit is now $6.06 per day
Difficulty is now 74385815635.60 (+0.36%). Profit is now $6.03 per day
Difficulty is now 74637427945.60 (+0.33%). Profit is now $6.00 per day
Difficulty is now 74869694270.30 (+0.31%). Profit is now $5.98 per day
Difficulty is now 75084044261.40 (+0.28%). Profit is now $5.96 per day
BREAK EVEN REACHED ON DAY 223!
Difficulty is now 75281810837.40 (+0.26%). Profit is now $5.94 per day
The block reward has halved. Profit is now $2.05 per day
Difficulty is now 75464235319.50 (+0.24%). Profit is now $2.04 per day
Difficulty is now 75632472533.60 (+0.22%). Profit is now $2.03 per day
Difficulty is now 75787595827.40 (+0.20%). Profit is now $2.02 per day
Difficulty is now 75930601965.10 (+0.18%). Profit is now $2.01 per day
Difficulty is now 76062415867.30 (+0.17%). Profit is now $2.01 per day
Difficulty is now 76183895177.40 (+0.15%). Profit is now $2.00 per day
Difficulty is now 76295834636.20 (+0.14%). Profit is now $2.00 per day
Difficulty is now 76398970256.40 (+0.13%). Profit is now $1.99 per day
Difficulty is now 76493983290.90 (+0.12%). Profit is now $1.99 per day
Difficulty is now 76581503991.90 (+0.11%). Profit is now $1.98 per day
Difficulty is now 76662115162.80 (+0.10%). Profit is now $1.98 per day
Difficulty is now 76736355504.70 (+0.09%). Profit is now $1.97 per day
Difficulty is now 76804722762.70 (+0.08%). Profit is now $1.97 per day
Difficulty is now 76867676678.20 (+0.08%). Profit is now $1.97 per day
Difficulty is now 76925641753.20 (+0.07%). Profit is now $1.96 per day
Difficulty is now 76979009836.20 (+0.06%). Profit is now $1.96 per day
Difficulty is now 77028142535.30 (+0.06%). Profit is now $1.96 per day
Difficulty is now 77073373469.30 (+0.05%). Profit is now $1.96 per day
Difficulty is now 77115010363.30 (+0.05%). Profit is now $1.96 per day
Difficulty is now 77153336999.60 (+0.04%). Profit is now $1.95 per day
Difficulty is now 77188615029.70 (+0.04%). Profit is now $1.95 per day
Difficulty is now 77221085657.70 (+0.04%). Profit is now $1.95 per day
Difficulty is now 77250971202.00 (+0.03%). Profit is now $1.95 per day
Difficulty is now 77278476543.50 (+0.03%). Profit is now $1.95 per day
Difficulty is now 77303790467.60 (+0.03%). Profit is now $1.95 per day
Difficulty is now 77327086906.40 (+0.03%). Profit is now $1.94 per day
End of simulation reached.
604 days have elapsed.
Your total revenue after hosting costs: 2217.02
Your net gain/loss: $821.52
"Difficulty Armageddon" simulation result, for the fun of it:Difficulty is 68500000000.00.
Profit is $6.71 per day.
Expected difficulty increase is 1.00%, with future increases changing by -8.00%.
Note that daily profit does include hosting cost.
Difficulty is now 69185000000.00 (+1.00%). Profit is now $6.62 per day
Difficulty is now 69821502000.00 (+0.92%). Profit is now $6.55 per day
Difficulty is now 70412471192.90 (+0.84%). Profit is now $6.48 per day
Difficulty is now 70960764656.60 (+0.77%). Profit is now $6.41 per day
Difficulty is now 71469122579.00 (+0.71%). Profit is now $6.35 per day
Difficulty is now 71940162360.70 (+0.65%). Profit is now $6.30 per day
Difficulty is now 72376375133.10 (+0.60%). Profit is now $6.25 per day
Difficulty is now 72780124281.90 (+0.55%). Profit is now $6.20 per day
Difficulty is now 73153645615.60 (+0.51%). Profit is now $6.16 per day
Difficulty is now 73499048866.10 (+0.47%). Profit is now $6.12 per day
Difficulty is now 73818320248.30 (+0.43%). Profit is now $6.09 per day
Difficulty is now 74113325847.70 (+0.39%). Profit is now $6.06 per day
Difficulty is now 74385815635.60 (+0.36%). Profit is now $6.03 per day
Difficulty is now 74637427945.60 (+0.33%). Profit is now $6.00 per day
Difficulty is now 74869694270.30 (+0.31%). Profit is now $5.98 per day
Difficulty is now 75084044261.40 (+0.28%). Profit is now $5.96 per day
BREAK EVEN REACHED ON DAY 223!
Difficulty is now 75281810837.40 (+0.26%). Profit is now $5.94 per day
The block reward has halved. Profit is now $2.05 per day
Difficulty is now 75464235319.50 (+0.24%). Profit is now $2.04 per day
Difficulty is now 75632472533.60 (+0.22%). Profit is now $2.03 per day
Difficulty is now 75787595827.40 (+0.20%). Profit is now $2.02 per day
Difficulty is now 75930601965.10 (+0.18%). Profit is now $2.01 per day
Difficulty is now 76062415867.30 (+0.17%). Profit is now $2.01 per day
Difficulty is now 76183895177.40 (+0.15%). Profit is now $2.00 per day
Difficulty is now 76295834636.20 (+0.14%). Profit is now $2.00 per day
Difficulty is now 76398970256.40 (+0.13%). Profit is now $1.99 per day
Difficulty is now 76493983290.90 (+0.12%). Profit is now $1.99 per day
Difficulty is now 76581503991.90 (+0.11%). Profit is now $1.98 per day
Difficulty is now 76662115162.80 (+0.10%). Profit is now $1.98 per day
Difficulty is now 76736355504.70 (+0.09%). Profit is now $1.97 per day
Difficulty is now 76804722762.70 (+0.08%). Profit is now $1.97 per day
Difficulty is now 76867676678.20 (+0.08%). Profit is now $1.97 per day
Difficulty is now 76925641753.20 (+0.07%). Profit is now $1.96 per day
Difficulty is now 76979009836.20 (+0.06%). Profit is now $1.96 per day
Difficulty is now 77028142535.30 (+0.06%). Profit is now $1.96 per day
Difficulty is now 77073373469.30 (+0.05%). Profit is now $1.96 per day
Difficulty is now 77115010363.30 (+0.05%). Profit is now $1.96 per day
Difficulty is now 77153336999.60 (+0.04%). Profit is now $1.95 per day
Difficulty is now 77188615029.70 (+0.04%). Profit is now $1.95 per day
Difficulty is now 77221085657.70 (+0.04%). Profit is now $1.95 per day
Difficulty is now 77250971202.00 (+0.03%). Profit is now $1.95 per day
Difficulty is now 77278476543.50 (+0.03%). Profit is now $1.95 per day
Difficulty is now 77303790467.60 (+0.03%). Profit is now $1.95 per day
Difficulty is now 77327086906.40 (+0.03%). Profit is now $1.94 per day
End of simulation reached.
604 days have elapsed.
Your total revenue after hosting costs: 2217.02
Your net gain/loss: $821.52
Code:
Simulation start:
Difficulty is 68500000000.00.
Profit is $6.71 per day.
Expected difficulty increase is 7.00%, with future increases changing by -2.00%.
Note that daily profit does include hosting cost.
Difficulty is now 73295000000.00 (+7.00%). Profit is now $6.11 per day
Difficulty is now 78323037000.00 (+6.86%). Profit is now $5.57 per day
Difficulty is now 83588538131.40 (+6.72%). Profit is now $5.07 per day
Difficulty is now 89095638568.10 (+6.58%). Profit is now $4.61 per day
Difficulty is now 94848167182.80 (+6.45%). Profit is now $4.20 per day
Difficulty is now 100849633342.66 (+6.32%). Profit is now $3.81 per day
Difficulty is now 107103214894.32 (+6.20%). Profit is now $3.46 per day
Difficulty is now 113611747382.30 (+6.07%). Profit is now $3.14 per day
Difficulty is now 120377714534.57 (+5.95%). Profit is now $2.85 per day
Difficulty is now 127403240041.81 (+5.83%). Profit is now $2.57 per day
Difficulty is now 134690080648.14 (+5.71%). Profit is now $2.32 per day
Difficulty is now 142239620562.84 (+5.60%). Profit is now $2.09 per day
Difficulty is now 150052867195.17 (+5.49%). Profit is now $1.87 per day
Difficulty is now 158130448206.38 (+5.38%). Profit is now $1.67 per day
Difficulty is now 166472609865.86 (+5.27%). Profit is now $1.49 per day
Difficulty is now 175079216691.71 (+5.16%). Profit is now $1.31 per day
Difficulty is now 183949752349.23 (+5.06%). Profit is now $1.15 per day
The block reward has halved. Profit is now $-0.33 per day
Miner is no longer profitable. Ending simulation
227 days have elapsed.
Your total revenue after hosting costs: 766.37
Your net gain/loss: $-629.12
Interestingly, even in that pretty insane worst case scenario you'll still recover most of your initial investment, without even factoring in resale value. Difficulty is 68500000000.00.
Profit is $6.71 per day.
Expected difficulty increase is 7.00%, with future increases changing by -2.00%.
Note that daily profit does include hosting cost.
Difficulty is now 73295000000.00 (+7.00%). Profit is now $6.11 per day
Difficulty is now 78323037000.00 (+6.86%). Profit is now $5.57 per day
Difficulty is now 83588538131.40 (+6.72%). Profit is now $5.07 per day
Difficulty is now 89095638568.10 (+6.58%). Profit is now $4.61 per day
Difficulty is now 94848167182.80 (+6.45%). Profit is now $4.20 per day
Difficulty is now 100849633342.66 (+6.32%). Profit is now $3.81 per day
Difficulty is now 107103214894.32 (+6.20%). Profit is now $3.46 per day
Difficulty is now 113611747382.30 (+6.07%). Profit is now $3.14 per day
Difficulty is now 120377714534.57 (+5.95%). Profit is now $2.85 per day
Difficulty is now 127403240041.81 (+5.83%). Profit is now $2.57 per day
Difficulty is now 134690080648.14 (+5.71%). Profit is now $2.32 per day
Difficulty is now 142239620562.84 (+5.60%). Profit is now $2.09 per day
Difficulty is now 150052867195.17 (+5.49%). Profit is now $1.87 per day
Difficulty is now 158130448206.38 (+5.38%). Profit is now $1.67 per day
Difficulty is now 166472609865.86 (+5.27%). Profit is now $1.49 per day
Difficulty is now 175079216691.71 (+5.16%). Profit is now $1.31 per day
Difficulty is now 183949752349.23 (+5.06%). Profit is now $1.15 per day
The block reward has halved. Profit is now $-0.33 per day
Miner is no longer profitable. Ending simulation
227 days have elapsed.
Your total revenue after hosting costs: 766.37
Your net gain/loss: $-629.12
Of course, if you want a better simulator it'll need to factor in the decline in hosting/PSU costs and the inevitable decrease of difficulty that will happen after the halving. However, I think my calculator is probably the most accurate one out there (its just not very easy to use).
It might be interesting coming up with software that calculates the difficulty based on a distribution of hardware by maintenance cost, factoring in how new hardware coming into the market forces old hardware off.
Very interested, but I think we definitely need to have a clearer picture about the fees after 3 months and also the PSU lease situation as mentioned by klondike_bar. How about a yearly plan or an unlimited plan ending when the miner is no longer profitable?
Great North Data isn't setting firm dates on when their hosting rates are going down.Finksy doesn't want to promise a specific rate after three months, and I don't blame him at all for that. He wants to see the board/PSU failure rates before he requotes (remember, he's promised to cover failures out of his own pocket). The one thing he has guaranteed is that rates won't go up. I know it's frustrating, but we will have to wait and see on that front.
November 13, 2015, 05:06:02 PM
Very interested, but I think we definitely need to have a clearer picture about the fees after 3 months and also the PSU lease situation as mentioned by klondike_bar. How about a yearly plan or an unlimited plan ending when the miner is no longer profitable?
November 13, 2015, 04:41:09 PM
This i my ROI point of view:
This calculation is based on the fact that you have the money to pay for the miner package + hosting for a year, on hand, so that the alternative is to buy coins instead of mining gear for that amount of money.
Calc inputs:
Difficulty increment: 4% #I seriously doubt it will be below 4% on average.
Pool fee: 2.5% #Based on Ant PPS. Even if you are mining on 0% fee PPLNS. You can't expect more than 98% luck on average IMO.
Hashrate: 3500 #Based on 3650TH/s -4%. They have stated +/- 5%, lets try to be realistic.
Hardware price: 1436$ (Ex. hosting/PSU rental)
Hardware price in BTC: 4.373
Watts: 1000
Start date: 11-30
Maintain cost/month: ~58$ #Based on 0.0661$/KWH aka hosting, and 10$/month PSU rental
url snipped
Seems like you will never earn back the amount of BTC you put into this.
Miner cost + 1 year hosting = 1436 + 696 = 2132$ total invested.
If you buy coins today for that amount of money, this will give you 6.41 BTC.
If you buy gear, you pay 4.37 BTC up front, which you won't mine back. Unless you get cheaper hosting or $/KWH.
PS: There are 3 months of hosting at 0.047$/KW, that is not considered in this calc.
PS: Calc does not take halving into consideration. If you can't ROI without halving, you probably can't with it either
Am I missing something?
Better to buy coins than gear, in terms of ROI?
Disclaimer: You can ofc ROI this in terms of $, if BTC price skyrocket. My point being, it's always better to buy coins.
This calculation is based on the fact that you have the money to pay for the miner package + hosting for a year, on hand, so that the alternative is to buy coins instead of mining gear for that amount of money.
Calc inputs:
Difficulty increment: 4% #I seriously doubt it will be below 4% on average.
Pool fee: 2.5% #Based on Ant PPS. Even if you are mining on 0% fee PPLNS. You can't expect more than 98% luck on average IMO.
Hashrate: 3500 #Based on 3650TH/s -4%. They have stated +/- 5%, lets try to be realistic.
Hardware price: 1436$ (Ex. hosting/PSU rental)
Hardware price in BTC: 4.373
Watts: 1000
Start date: 11-30
Maintain cost/month: ~58$ #Based on 0.0661$/KWH aka hosting, and 10$/month PSU rental
url snipped
Seems like you will never earn back the amount of BTC you put into this.
Miner cost + 1 year hosting = 1436 + 696 = 2132$ total invested.
If you buy coins today for that amount of money, this will give you 6.41 BTC.
If you buy gear, you pay 4.37 BTC up front, which you won't mine back. Unless you get cheaper hosting or $/KWH.
PS: There are 3 months of hosting at 0.047$/KW, that is not considered in this calc.
PS: Calc does not take halving into consideration. If you can't ROI without halving, you probably can't with it either
Am I missing something?
Better to buy coins than gear, in terms of ROI?
Disclaimer: You can ofc ROI this in terms of $, if BTC price skyrocket. My point being, it's always better to buy coins.
you are not putting btc into it, but $$. Don't put in bitcoin that you already have.
these calculations never account for btc price change, and therefore cannot be trusted.
Start with $$, end up with $$ and put in various bitcoin price scenarios.
Besides, where in your calculations is the RESIDUAL value for the miner?
It was ~55% in BTC and 35% in $$ for SP30 after 12 mo and 53% of SP20 in $$ and astonishing 78% in btc after 10.5 mo (even with a high price paid for SP20 before discount to $400-500).
Thats if you want to diversify your money/risk, but if one or the other its entirely up to what you think the bitcoin price will do.
ps: the calculation posted brings up something important: the PSU lease. By assuming $10/month for the lease, after 8 months the [half-]PSU is completely paid for. does it become property of the leasee, or do the monthly lease fees become monthly rental fees? Either way, that adds about $60-80 to the above calculations ROI.
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