This rally is in full-on mania/esctatic phase.
It is possible I'm wrong on this (or it wouldn't be a speculative investment) - but I maintain the belief that once Bitcoin re-emerges as a long-term, legitimate currency, whose future is well established, and the collectible Bitcoin market firmly establishes itself as persistent, with a demonstrated premium...that it will draw the attention of high net worth individuals.
Right now, we are seeing premiums, in terms of BTC, decreasing on pieces.
I ain't buying it. I hold the opinion that investments are measured relative to the commodity upon which they are based.
Now, that is not yet the popular opinion.
This is evidenced by seeing more sellers than buyers, to a rather substantial degree, in the collectible marketplace.
I feel this is a mistake! I envision these prices BTC premiums decreasing now...but that they will re-increase, in terms of BTC, once the market is established.
The emotional toll is inversely related to the emotions caused in the market in general - fear and greed.
When BTC prices are on the rise, greed drives the spot BTC market. When prices go down, fear drives decisions.
Right now, because we are still
inventing and defining how the collectible marketplace will behave, there is not a precedent. So we are making it up as we go.
The fear in the collectible marketplace is - "wait a minute, people might not pay the same BTC premium. I better sell and convert to Bitcoins."
The reason I ramped up my efforts on the marketplace was to try to demonstrate, through the buying and selling actions of the marketplace itself, that this behavior is not correct. That for premium collectibles to remain a legitimate investment, the premiums
must remain based on BTC. Otherwise, people would be better off buying spot BTC.
I could be dead wrong on all this, and lose a lot of BTC as a result. But I see this premium-dip as an error that will be corrected in the future.
And I'm trying to get that message out, so that people sitting on gold mines don't cash it out for a tiny gain.
My few attempts to explain this have failed. It might be because I'm dead wrong. But it also might be because I haven't yet found the right way to explain it. It's definitely a tricky concept. I've been thinking on it for over a year, and only in the last month have been able to even try to express it. (I like trying to equate it to the gold and gold coin market, or the diamond market. Each has premium, high-end collectibles, whose value is tied to the value of their base commodity (gold or diamond), not USD. The premium value tracks along with the base-commodity value. Here's an example using the St. Gauden's pieces. Gold sells for $1300/oz. Check the insane
prices on the highest end collectibles.
So why am I putting this all in my 100 BTC bar thread?
There are two target markets for a piece like this: early investors, and new HNWI looking to speculatively invest in Bitcoin.
I'm seriously considering putting this particular piece up as a fancy-pants auction on Ebay.
If I do that, it is highly likely that a wealthy investor, new to Bitcoins, will be the buyer.
Not one of the community that has been around, and invested in Bitcoins, since the early days.
So this is a heads up. I've got this piece offered right now, but will probably be pulling it in a day or so, possibly short term, possibly for good.
It's 1 of 18 in existence. If the premium collectible marketplace takes off, it should command a far more substantial premium than 4x in the long run. If it does not, that premium will be lost. That's the speculation, plain and simple. Nobody knows the outcome for sure, or the price would be well-established.
Serious buyers, feel free to shoot me a message (or ten).
I've got a few other premium pieces potentially available as well.
If and when I decide to pull it, I'll update the asking price portion accordingly, noting the piece is not currently available.