Hi KCBitcoin. You seem to be better equipped to answer specific questions than zif33rs. While this may come off as a slam to your CEO, I consider this to be a positive for the company's potential as no one person can be effective at everything and the ability to overcome one's ego and delegate responsibility to those that are more effective at a specific task is a vital trait for an effective leader to possess.
While I'm not going to go over your spreadsheet and check your maths and whatnot as I don't have the time & likely wouldn't spend it on this if I did, I do have a couple of questions.
First, are you aware that difficulty re-targets are NOT set to 12days or any other fixed number of days? That instead this occurs more frequently as network expansion accelerates and less frequently as expansion slows or contracts? Currently re-targets are occurring less than every 11days and the trend is quickening...not slowing.
Secondly, how did you arrive at your estimates of +30%/12 days in 2013 and +15%/12 days in 2014? Given that the same company you're intending to contract to provide this hashrate has said they'd make available 1Ph/s(1000Th/s) contracts in October of this year, what makes you think that a 2.5%/day estimate is high enough? This is obviously far more important than your estimates for 2014 as you MUST make back the bulk of your investment in late 2013. This seems unlikely if even one of these 1000Th's contracts is sold as this would constitute a nearly 200% increase in network expansion as it stands right now. Is there any reason to believe that Alydian is not negotiating with many other potential clients even now to devalue the contract you've not yet signed?
Cheers.
Hi creativex,
Thanks for your kind words towards our CEO and me. I greatly appreciated.
The 12 day retarget date is an assumption I made for my mathematical model(as stated in the first few rows of the spreadsheet). Actually, the retarget date has been floating between 11 to 12 days.
If the calculation really goes with 11 days, we will ask for a lower price from the vendor.
If a deal cannot be profitable based on a moderate estimation, we will not going to sign any contract.
With regard to your statement on the difficulty increase, I wouldn't be surprised if Alydian actually roll out another 1PT in October.
According to
http://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate, the network hashrate has been approximately doubling every month.
We now have 550-600T in late August, I wouldn't be surprised, if in late October, it becomes 2.2-2.4PT.
If Alydian really rolls out 1PT in October, we still need ~1PT from other suppliers to keep up with this increasing rate.
Let's just HOPE all other suppliers will meet their delivery date and roll out this 1PT by October.
Not to mention that, Alydian actually list a range from 100 to 1000TH by October, which means even they are not sure about the market.
I think talking about a more precise prediction without a better mathematical model wouldn't make too much sense now.
But I think I've made my point.
WRT the pricing, our CEO has lived a life on contract negotiating and selling. I'm confident that he will be able to further negotiate a lower price once we get fully funded.
BR
KC
