I know it's been said here and several other places across the internet and probably in print too but this is more then likely going to be a disaster for Argentina.
The US central bank (Federal Reserve) is designed and setup to help the US. Not Argentina or any other country. You can't just go along for the ride. They FR can and will do things that are great for the US economy they can and will do things that may be not great for the US economy and everything in between.
How it will effect Argentina's economy is not important to them and if they do something that is good for the US but sinks Argentina into a decade of financial ruin. Then well it sucks to be them not our problem.
-Dave
Interesting take. I thought everybody was looking forward to seeing Argentina ditch the central bank to find their own solution. It has so far seemingly worked well for El Salvador, so Argentina has a guide to show them how they could be successful adoption Bitcoin as their national currency. I think predicting total disaster may be premature.
But they didn't find their own solution. They are piggybacking on someone else's. Their GDP is only $490 billion and a lot of places report that to be an inflated number.
Assuming it's true they have the economy of a medium US state. But here all the states play along with mostly the same rules.
Argentina has their own rules. So even minor things like money movement can matter. Banks here have to report cash movement over $10k and a bunch of other things. If Argentina does not play by those same rules how long till people figure out it's a great place to launder money, then how long till other repercussions happen.
How will businesses in the financial sector in Argentina work with that in terms of interest rates and liquidity?
How will trade partners work with this? What exchange rate will be fixed with contracts that were on their old currency? What if they are trading with a US sanctioned country?
And so on. It's a long path to get it done.
I'm not saying it will not work out. Just pointing out that it's not a magic we are going to do this thing and it will work out. There are 1000s of moving parts that have to be figured out 1st.
I think that's a bit of exaggeration, and mainly because two things
- the FR might f* u Argentina for 10 years but the current CB and government have done it for 40
- what the FR does might be good for the US and bad for Argentina, but looking at how diverse the US is, what's good for California and bad for Argentina might be an apocalypses for Montana, and we have an even better picture with the EU, some decision might suck for some but it's well better than how it was a few decades ago. Yeah 5-10% inflation sucks but coming from 100% in the 90's it's like a spa trip.
But the FR would not be able to pass something that is an apocalypse for Montana. That is kind of the point. It might be not great for Montana and perhaps actively bad for Utah. However, they would not allow a state / regional economy to implode since it would take more states with it. Doing something that causes Argentina to fall off the globe and Chile is now the southern tip of South America does not enter into the US FR thinking.
-Dave