Topic: Cloud Hashing - page 5. (Read 19503 times)

Ugh, you know I realized I am too tired to be thinking about this stuff too deeply, please disregard. My analysis of pricing is fundamentally incorrect I will admit.

My only real point was you cannot argue difficulty increase making mining not worth it without considering that the worth of Bitcoin can also increase/decrease along side it. If Bitcoin is worth let's say $1000 by next year, even mining a sliver of one would be worth it even at what would be perceived as insane difficulty by then.

Yes, if you use the speculation as your only method of investment recovery would be pretty reckless. There are several factors to consider, that being only one of them.

1 Bitcoin will always be 1 Bitcoin, but the variable is how much buying power they carry, and will be until someday it is de-coupled from Fiat currency and Bitcoin equalizes into its own inherent buying power without the measure of fiat pricing guiding it.

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To get back on point-

I have actually talked to the guys behind Cloudhashing who shared some internal documents with me as part of the initial Coin Canary investigating when I started it, they seem to be running a solid operation. I can't/won't vouch entirely as I have neither used their service or really heard anything from anyone who has, however.

It's up to you, a service like theirs is handy if you want to mine without having to plop down the full investment for the gear, energy, maintenance, etc. Whatever your returns are is simply up to the market itself, just like mining with your own equipment. The return is smaller, but your risk is smaller in renting.

Buying BTC you have to just hope they are worth more than you paid after time. Only risk there is the price tanking after you buy. This is assuming you are only looking at it as commodity investment.  

Buying a contract with a hashfarm, you may be able to mine more coins than you could have purchased outright for the same cost but takes longer, but therein lies the rub as it all depends on the volatility of the market and difficulty of mining. It gives you a medium risk to be a miner without putting down a large up front investment, with hopefully a better ROI in the longer run.

Then there is just laying down the big money for mining gear and running it yourself. Highest risk and expense, but possibly highest rewards as you get 100% of the output. Positive ROI takes much longer depending on your gear.

Hes making the assumption that 1 Bitcoin today is worth 1 Bitcoin over time. I think thats a probably sane assumption...

That is pure speculative talk and is reckless.  Relying on price appreciation as your plan to make a profit is a quick way to financial ruin.

Nr 1 rule in business: If it seems like it's too good to be true, it is.

Irrelevent.  If you're spending bitcoins for mining gear, the only thing that matters one iota is how many bitcoins you get back.  If you're betting on bitcoin rising in price to cover your investment, then simply buy bitcoins.  You'll have a better outcome should they go up in price.

Absolutely not.  The market ultimately sets the price of Bitcoin, miners simply supply it at the price the market will pay.  Should the market not pay enough to make mining profitable, then less people mine.  Eventually equilibrium should be established, but it is not miners calling the shots here.  If they are, we should all give up now as this bitcoin experiment is dead.  About the only thing miners collectively control is the network difficulty, which happens to follow price.  Higher price, more miners are viable, which means higher difficulty.  Lower price, marginal operations get shut down, and you have less difficulty.

Completely irrelevant if you're investing bitcoins in mining gear to get more bitcoins.  If you simply are betting on the price rising, buy bitcoins!  You'll get more, and have a better rate of return.

You are making an assumption that Bitcoin's value won't change in that time. There is a lot going on in the financial world right now, I think we're on the verge of a new push. Let's say Bitcoin is worth $500 or more each in 6 months, even making a shaving of a Bitcoin can still be worth serious money.

The miners ultimately set the price of Bitcoin, which only goes up the harder it gets to mine. The currently upward swing will look like nothing soon I agree. More power usage, more time, = more BTC value.
 
Yes there some large "ifs" there, but don't forget as difficulty goes up, the value of Bitcoin will as well. If all gold were on the surface it wouldn't be worth much, but since we have to dig further and further to get at it using more time and energy, it costs most for the miners, therefor costs more to buy as an investor. Bitcoin follows the mining analogy to a T.

Don't do it!

Even if it started now, with the next difficulty estimate at 18.3 million, you'd only make 0.2748 a day from it. That is six months to get 50 BTC if the difficulty never goes up and it definitely will. I feel like they are seriously misleading you by making a prediction of 50 BTC. I wouldn't buy from them because of that alone.

In September the difficulty will probably be around 50 million and you'll make only about 0.1 bitcoin a day. You'll probably never make your investment back.

What do you guys think of these guys?

https://www.cloudhashing.com

Offering 10Ghs starting in September. Is it in any way a good idea to jump on board? They claim a return of 50BTC for essentially 10BTC (to keep it easy) ... though if you pump the figures into coinish calc, it tells you tou will make about 2BTC profit over two years on its default mode. If you put in difficulty increases of 15% then its never.

Still... i'm tempted. Certainly not going to get an asic any time soon. Thoughts?

Someone talk me out of it. :-)