Topic: CME Futures are coming! - page 4. (Read 2475 times)

How does this affect the price of bitcoin?  What you're saying seems to imply that the US$ will be affected not bitcoin.  I suppose if you own a lot of bitcoin and you flooded the market just to buy the futures contract, that would tank the price?

It will probably play out similar to gold futures which are ATM the defacto price discovery mechanism for gold. Other precious metals work the same way too, but gold is the most prominent. I can see the BTC futures market baloon to 40x-100x bitcoin market cap with big players trying to take money from each other.

Since the futures will be much more liquid than the actual bitcoin market and much larger, since they are derivatives, the futures will become the go-to price check.

It is already affecting the markets... The upcoming futures market set bitcoin on a nice bull rally for the last week or so. What we dont know yet is what is going to happen once those futures go online. From then on its anyones guess which trend the charts will follow. We can only hope its not a huge correction back to 4 digits.

thank-you for correcting me.  If that's the case, then some people are going to make and lose US$.  How does that affect the bitcoin price?  I don't get it.  To me they are two different universes.  It's like if we had a telescope to see the activities of people in another planet, we could bet on futures on their activities and make/lose money - but that doesn't affect their ecosystem.

How would US$ based futures affect bitcoin?   I don't get it.

If the futures price is $5k and the spot price is $10k, I will sell my Bitcoins in the spot market and buy in the futures market. When the trades are settled, I will buy again in the spot market, netting a neat profit. Millions of others will do this. This is one reason why your strategy won't work.

That would be correct if it required physicl delivery, but this is a cash settlement system, so no Bitcoins are involved.

I thought it was going to require physical delivery, but it seems it's a cash settlement system, If the market becomes large enough, it means that the banks can manipulate the price, and increase their holding in Bitcoin at the expense of the speculators. This will be bad for the reputation of Bitcoin.

This is how I think futures affects the price.  Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

Say in November bitcoin is $8k, and Bob bets that in 1 month time that the price will be $10k.  John agrees to the futures and to sell bitcoin at $10k to Bob in Dec.

In December, the bitcoin price is actually $15k.  Now Bob gets a $5k discount, and John loses $5k - plus a whole bunch of bitcoin is sold at $10k when the price is $15k.

Does the whole market react and then tank because a whole amount of bitcoin was sold at $10k??

I kinda think this may be the case as well. Having Futures as an option for many of these whales may be too tempting to short Bitcoin and drive the price down.

Just another reason to diversify your portfolio!

Well, here is a problem though. Who do you think has been gobbling-up all the bitcoins since mid-November? Certainly not us.

Best explanation I've heard today, thank you

I posted this as a topic so sorry if against rules for double post. Feel free remove. Just trying help.



We need to spread the word and F Wall st.

Futures are going to start trading on it Sunday night. These futures are cash settled. This means they are not connected to BTC in anyway. Like 0.0000%. They are just trading fiat aka making fiat bets on BTC's actual price. So they have endless fiat dollars to short their futures down to $0.

But here's there beauty. If tons of us stay HODL and completely ignore the futures price, futures price can be down 50% and BTC on say coinbase can be plus 20%. This would be all over the evening news and expose Wall St. for the sham it is.

Spread the word.

Example: Someone makes a billion $ bet BTC will be $5,000 Dec 31st. They are trying to effectively short BTC. If BTC on coinbase/exhanges is $10,000 on Dec 31st. This person who made the bet just has to pay the difference between $5,000 (their bet) and BTC physical price of $10,000. So they owe $5K in fiat.

It's a way to manipulate a currency/asset etc, because people think the futures is an actual price or indicator. It is neither, it is a bet is all.If everyone stayed HODL, Wall. St. would get destroyed.

Yes. There is a vast chance of being affected by the upcoming bitcoin. We know that, if the supply of the bitcoin increases, then its price will fall.

The future market would allows Whale to easily go long or short.
In other words, easier for them to manipulate the market?  We shall see how it goes.

Don't you think that speculators could raise hype about it and hence manipulate the price?

The appearance on the Chicago exchange futures contracts is an attempt to Rob some whales other whales. I don't believe it. I don't even know how to trade bitcoins in this way. It seems to me that major transactions will be conducted in the same way as now. Fortunately today, the Chicago stock exchange is not a monopoly.

Perhaps, I will agree with you. But, when rates make the whales of the market, it matters to small investors. They start to buy or sell in a panic. After all, I think that whales are smarter. So there will be a price manipulation.

Bitcoin may not blow immediately, there's a huge support for it right now. It may not go down for several months too, for I have seen that if stock market people want to invest something, they invest big and the time they take it usually for like 3-6 months, and when they come to know that normal public is very keen on buying bitcoin, they will dump it so so badly that people lose confidence not only on their investment, they become disappointed and some even commit suicide. Depressions are very much common now a days, only SEC can do something and set some sort of limit for example. God knows.

I just read this Coindesk article (link: https://www.coindesk.com/threat-bitcoin-futures/) about futures, and it says:

But here’s the thing: the money will not be pouring into the bitcoin market. It will be buying synthetic derivatives that don’t directly impact bitcoin at all.

For every $100 million (or whatever) that supermegahedgefundX puts into bitcoin futures, no extra money goes into bitcoin itself. These futures do not require ownership of actual bitcoins, not even on contract maturity.


---> so, if futures are just basically bets on the Bitcoin price movements and totally outside the Bitcoin blockchain, why would they have any effect on the price? Why would Bitcoin price go up or down because of futures exists? Anyone could make any bets of the price movements already right now as it is. Ofc you can argue to some extent that people who bet the price to go up might go and buy Bitcoin their selves to help boost it. But there are so many whales who have bought bitcoins at 1$ or 10$ years ago who really control such things. If some Wall Street fat cat goes now to the market when the price is 15.000 there's a limit how much he can buy it without the risk growing way too high.

This whole thing feels like inside out. There have been long time some ETFs you can buy, where the fund actually owns bitcoins. So, each time someone buys the asset the fund goes and buys Bitcoins. This is something that effects the price, yet people are talking about only these futures.

Could someone explain this, who knows the futures market better  

I fully agree with you. So you suggest that after bitcoin futures launch - bitcoin will blow? To be honest, I think it's too early for bitcoin to deal with stock market and I'm concerned that big bitcoin blow after futures start could really hit the system.