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Topic: Comparison to Apple (AAPL) shares - page 3. (Read 9707 times)

legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
July 10, 2011, 04:40:08 PM
#37
It's a high risk investment with an extremely low risk/reward ratio. You have approximately a 30% chance of making 10X your original investment.  Any poker player would jump at the chance.

Haha I love it when bitcoiners quantify things like this.  Please explain how someone has a 30% chance of making 10x their investment.

+1

I pulled the numbers out of my ass, but the principle still stands. Bitcoin has less than a 50/50 chance of reaching critical mass, but if it does, the return on investment will substantially more than double. 

50% chance you say? That's like saying winning or losing a game is always equally probable, just because there are two possible outcomes.

Calling to reference expected value and poker play here is even dumber. Who's the say that the odds aren't <1% that we'll gain a 10% gain on our investment?

I invested some money in Bitcoin myself, but I'm just saying assigning expected values to such things isn't appropriate.

LESS THAN 50%. that's anywhere from 0.00000001% to 49.99999999%. A wide margin. It's not my fault you suck at reading comprehension. 
sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 251
FirstBits: 168Bc
July 10, 2011, 03:17:12 PM
#34
Do you want me to draw you a picture?

Yes, please do.

Haha I love it when bitcoiners quantify things like this.  Please explain how someone has a 30% chance of making 10x their investment.

Perhaps if you look at past history, that more than x% of all y consecutive months have gone up z time.

I don't know what numbers were used, but here are some x=50%, y=3, z=10.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?m=mtgoxUSD&v=1&t=S&r=300&l=1
newbie
Activity: 56
Merit: 0
July 10, 2011, 02:06:25 PM
#33
It's a high risk investment with an extremely low risk/reward ratio. You have approximately a 30% chance of making 10X your original investment.  Any poker player would jump at the chance.

Haha I love it when bitcoiners quantify things like this.  Please explain how someone has a 30% chance of making 10x their investment.

+1

I pulled the numbers out of my ass, but the principle still stands. Bitcoin has less than a 50/50 chance of reaching critical mass, but if it does, the return on investment will substantially more than double. 

50% chance you say? That's like saying winning or losing a game is always equally probable, just because there are two possible outcomes.

Calling to reference expected value and poker play here is even dumber. Who's the say that the odds aren't <1% that we'll gain a 10% gain on our investment?

I invested some money in Bitcoin myself, but I'm just saying assigning expected values to such things isn't appropriate.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
July 10, 2011, 01:45:50 PM
#32
It's a high risk investment with an extremely low risk/reward ratio. You have approximately a 30% chance of making 10X your original investment.  Any poker player would jump at the chance.

Haha I love it when bitcoiners quantify things like this.  Please explain how someone has a 30% chance of making 10x their investment.

+1

I pulled the numbers out of my ass, but the principle still stands. Bitcoin has less than a 50/50 chance of reaching critical mass, but if it does, the return on investment will substantially more than double. 
newbie
Activity: 56
Merit: 0
July 10, 2011, 01:16:54 PM
#31
Is there some relationship that makes bitcoin similar to Apple, or are you just picking something that went up in price and hoping bitcoin does the same?

Yeah, I don't really understand what you're getting at here, OP.

Many, many, many companies have experienced healthy gains in recent years.

Enlighten us on your thought process here.

Do you want me to draw you a picture?

Not specifically. I'd just like you to answer my and Peter Lambert's questions.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
July 10, 2011, 12:54:53 PM
#30
Well is there anything else to compare BTC with? The stock market? Oil prices? The poker boom? House prices? I'm just trying to think of a way to predict the future by looking at the past...

Rare earth metal are the only thing remotely giving returns comparable to Bitcoin in the past year. Unfortunately for REM speculators, The Japanese just found a vast supply of said metals on the ocean seabed.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
July 10, 2011, 12:50:51 PM
#29
There is only two ways:

Maybe Bitcoin is unsuccessful. Then it's 100 % loss.

I don't see how you can stop Bitcoin? There will always be a market for illegal drugs or purchases of a private nature online...

You can't stop it. I am talking about the case that it does not get main stream because the public does not want it.

It doesn't have to go mainstream. 0.1% of international transactions would increase the dollar price of 1BTC to four digits.

A tiny fraction of tax evaders, drug dealers and anti-banksters could easily do that.   Considering how unpopular the Banksters are in Europe right now, I would be surprised if it didn't gain at least some traction.
full member
Activity: 141
Merit: 100
July 10, 2011, 12:49:42 PM
#28
Well is there anything else to compare BTC with? The stock market? Oil prices? The poker boom? House prices? I'm just trying to think of a way to predict the future by looking at the past...
full member
Activity: 141
Merit: 100
July 10, 2011, 12:44:36 PM
#27
There is only two ways:

Maybe Bitcoin is unsuccessful. Then it's 100 % loss.

I don't see how you can stop Bitcoin? There will always be a market for illegal drugs or purchases of a private nature online...

You can't stop it. I am talking about the case that it does not get main stream because the public does not want it.

Ok, well given it's not even in the mainstream now then I doubt it would result in a "100% loss" if that happened. I dunno... I just think there is a strong possibility that the BTC/$ chart will resemble the AAPL/$ chart.  Huh
full member
Activity: 168
Merit: 103
July 10, 2011, 12:37:12 PM
#26
There is only two ways:

Maybe Bitcoin is unsuccessful. Then it's 100 % loss.

I don't see how you can stop Bitcoin? There will always be a market for illegal drugs or purchases of a private nature online...

You can't stop it. I am talking about the case that it does not get main stream because the public does not want it.
sr. member
Activity: 337
Merit: 250
July 10, 2011, 12:36:05 PM
#25
Some other genius can come out with a new crytocurrency. Most people on this forum at least are willing to try something new. Maybe in the next five years a new bitcoin competitor comes out. Also with bitcoin most likely not upgrading to SHA-3 then there is a pretty high possibility that it gets cracked.
full member
Activity: 141
Merit: 100
July 10, 2011, 12:32:23 PM
#24
There is only two ways:

Maybe Bitcoin is unsuccessful. Then it's 100 % loss.

I don't see how you can stop Bitcoin? There will always be a market for illegal drugs or purchases of a private nature online...
full member
Activity: 168
Merit: 103
July 10, 2011, 12:29:00 PM
#23
OUTCOMEAAPLBTC
100% lossunlikelypossible
similar valuelikelypossible
2x valuepossiblepossible
10x valueunlikelyunlikely

There is only two ways:

Maybe Bitcoin is unsuccessful. Then it's 100 % loss.

Or Bitcoin is successfull. Then the value of one BTC must rise at least to the tens of thousands of US dollars.
full member
Activity: 141
Merit: 100
July 10, 2011, 12:26:12 PM
#22
one year from now:

OUTCOMEAAPLBTC
100% lossunlikelypossible
similar valuelikelypossible
2x valuepossiblepossible
10x valueunlikelyunlikely

OUTCOMEAAPLBTC
100% lossimpossibleimpossible
similar valuepossiblepossible
2x valuepossiblepossible
10x valueimpossiblepossible
100x valueimpossiblepossible
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1004
July 10, 2011, 12:20:52 PM
#21
It's a high risk investment with an extremely low risk/reward ratio. You have approximately a 30% chance of making 10X your original investment.  Any poker player would jump at the chance.

Haha I love it when bitcoiners quantify things like this.  Please explain how someone has a 30% chance of making 10x their investment.

It is impossible to quantify these things.  But there are ways we can look at it.

one year from now:

OUTCOMEAAPLBTC
100% lossunlikelypossible
similar valuelikelypossible
2x valuepossiblepossible
10x valueunlikelyunlikely
full member
Activity: 141
Merit: 100
July 10, 2011, 12:14:19 PM
#20
One is a stock, the other is an experimental currency.

BTC behaves more like a stock than a currency IMO.
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1004
July 10, 2011, 12:12:08 PM
#19
Bitcoin is a superior investment to Apple in at least two ways.
1. Apple shares can be (and have been) diluted.
2. Apple can get sued, fined and take on debt.

BTC is not superior to Apple (and Apple is not superior to BTC).  BTC is a different category!

One is a stock, the other is an experimental currency.

Apple has huge merits, such as extreme profitability and the mother of all diversified cash piles held by a company.  They have more then $60 per share in just cash alone and more will be announced in two weeks.  Apple making more profits in phone and computer spaces then ALL of their competition combined.  

BitCoin has no real competition but it has adversaries that would make an Apple fanboy weep.

Apple is compared to Bitcoin a safe investment but Bitcoin has potential upsides that are impossible with Apple.  Apple will not and can not further multiply by 50, Bitcoin could (but probably wont).  





full member
Activity: 141
Merit: 100
July 10, 2011, 12:07:20 PM
#18
Is there some relationship that makes bitcoin similar to Apple, or are you just picking something that went up in price and hoping bitcoin does the same?

Yeah, I don't really understand what you're getting at here, OP.

Many, many, many companies have experienced healthy gains in recent years.

Enlighten us on your thought process here.

Do you want me to draw you a picture?
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