In determining bitcoin price it is important to keep track of the alternatives.
Most of the alts are just copy cats - improving on some meaningless aspect (like the time for newblocks) - but there are some that do try to improve something that might have an impact.
I would group them in three groups:
1) Improved Security. There are coins based on CryptoNote
https://cryptonote.org/inside - but it is not clear for me how sound this approach is. Now we have a well founded startup with Zcash. This is the area where improvements seem inevitable, some for sure will be incorporated into BTC - but some others will require too much change for that.
2) The craziness of the Proof of Work economy. I will not elaborate on this - not everyone agrees with this view. PeerCoin tried the alternative Proof of Stake approach - but can this be really decentralized?
3) Ethereum - has its own category. Very ambitious. I don't quite understand it in its entirety. A programmer in me is sceptical about so complex projects - at least in any timeframe that would make it financially feasible.
The current blocksize crisis can create another fourth group for systems with bigger throughput than BTC.
What are your views. Do you think that BTC could be passed in popularity by some alternative? In what timeframe? Personally I believe that given enough time there surely will be some coin that would be better than BTC in some important aspect - alternatively BTC would have to hard fork more often.
Don't know a lot about the technicalities of Cryptos and am not really inclined to find out....but....what puts me off Bitcoin is:
a) It actually isn't anonymous at all. Indeed, build the right infrastructure around it and every single transaction is effortlessly trackable, forever! Bitcoin was billed as Magic Internet Money of Freedom but this all sounds a bit 'Evil Empire' to me.
b) Bitcoin wealth is in far too few hands.
c) Mining is also being increasingly centralised, with small time miners being ousted out the game quite some time ago, leaving the game to operations with major capital behind them.
d) Bitcoin market has turned into nothing more than a cash cow for those who hold the greatest amount of Bitcoin wealth. Spot price as defined in the first instance largely on the Chinese exchanges, is entirely manufactured. BTC market is driven by big players, up and down, with the intent of extracting as much wealth as possible from the market. These days, we have entire daily candles covering $50 of price movement behaving like a FU move on the 15 minute charts. It is quite frankly, fucking ridiculous.
I think I am instinctively with Mike Hearn, when in his parting shot with Bitcoin, he alluded to BTC basically being under the control of the Chinese, who are intent on holding BTC back, to satisfy their own narrow gains.
I don't like BTC for what it is, or rather, for what it has become. However, I still see plenty upside potential in it for all the wrong reasons. If a trader can become astute in reading where the Market Makers are going to ramp and dump Bitcoin to, then there is clearly good profits to be made, although easier said than done, with all the FU moves (moves that occur purely in order to Stop traders out of positions......I have been deprived of literally, thousands of USD due to being Stopped Out on what prove to be no more than FU moves, and there is a good reason why this keeps happening to me, and to plenty others). Also, I could easily imagine a situation somewhere down the line, where BTC picks up traction as a means of Capital Flight out of China. When this happens, and BTC has a *real* reason to grow, other than the usual pump n dump machinations of those who control the market, I could see staggering highs being hit.....before the Chinese government clamp down on Bitcoin once and for all, ban it outright, close down the exchanges, and the mining operations....and man oh man.....when that happens, cash out your BTC, get your money off the i
nsolvent crooked bucket shops exchanges ASAP.