Topic: Concerned about the recent BTC price rise. (Read 9703 times)

Bitcoin incentive to hoard is not a bug, it is a feature.  

Also many people may not realise but bitcoin can only stabilise once it has a deep market. A deep market will be signified by significant holdings of value inside the btc ecosystem. Because of the fixed limit of bitcoins this will only happen at much higher values w.r.t. to dollar, euro holdings etc ... i.e. 0.adoption => hoarding => higher price => more stability => goto 0.

It is a kind of all or none, with us or agin us, type of deal. We are shooting for the fences.

I'm musing about beginning the "Plato Club", people who have gone 'all in' on bitcoin savings. Plato and Rick Falkvinge would be honorary founding members of course.

In the U.S., where the governments and the majority of the population routinely spend more than they earn, it is not surprising that saving (a.k.a. "hoarding") is seen as a problem.

No it has never been a problem.

If the 50% assumption of hoarding is true...well it's nothing new. Hoarding has always been a problem in Bitcoin, has it not?

A lot has to do with media attention. It has brought a lot of new people into the BTC market. At least this is one of many reasons.

AGREED.

You need to differentiate between fractional reserve banking and credit expansion. Historically, they coincided, but Bitcoin makes it explicit that there is no necessity for one to lead to the other.

Reversible payments can be implemented with Bitcoin natively, without a derivative medium of exchange (escrow based on multi-key signatures). Based on the impression I got from the developers, multi-key signatures will probably become practically usable (i.e. the will have a working user interface) sooner rather than later. In fact, probably every feature related to payment processing and financial systems that you can think of is possible to be implemented with Bitcoin natively, and in a more efficient manner than it was historically the case, and be voluntarily agreed by the parties to the transaction (as opposed to centrally determined by the payment processor). Merely because it can't be accessed now or is not implemented in a usable manner isn't important.

The only two projects I realistically see as having a chance of bridging the gap between Bitcoin-FRB and Bitcoin-credit expansion are Ripple and OpenTransactions. They may be able to provide some features more efficiently than native Bitcoin. I still don't think it is likely, but if it ever happens, it would be through decentralised systems like these two rather than banks.

That's not security, that's insurance.  The security model for CC's is awful.

Your point is perfectly understandable, from a "consumer" POV, but if you look from the other side and be the real producer of goods and services I think you wouldn't say the same thing. Reversible payments are not the solution, but merchant reputation and post-sale support they you receive as a "consumer", btw I hate that word.

I don't think fractional reserve banking is likely to happen in bitcoin. Why? Because bitcoin already has very low transaction cost so the use of money substitutes doesn't make sense (added risk, no gain)

For the interested I suggest an awesome read: Peter Surdas (lonelyminer) master thesis ("Economics of Bitcoin: is Bitcoin an alternative to fiat currencies and gold?"), especially chapter 3.7 "Austrian Business Cycle Theory, fractional reserve banking, money supply and Bitcoin"

http://dev.economicsofbitcoin.com/mastersthesis/mastersthesis-surda-2012-11-19b.pdf


also see Peters blog for some great articles: http://www.economicsofbitcoin.com/

I assume that he means that because of fractional reserve banking, the amount of bitcoins and bitcoin-equivalents will be much greater than 21 million.

In FRB, when you deposit money in the bank, the bank then loans out 90% of that deposit. The actual amount of money doesn't change but the perceived/effective amount of money does. The total is now 1.9 times the original amount.

Even with bitcoin, fractional reserve banking is inevitable.

Also, people are mistaken when they think that bitcoin will destroy credit cards. People like credit cards because of the security they provide. They want chargebacks. Ultimately, even if bitcoin does take off, people will use bitcoin-backed credit cards (or paypal) because they want the ability to call up the credit card company and dispute a charge.

Taken alone, this is false. Do you wish to clarify?

No, it wouldn't, what will happen is most people see credit cards and continue fractional reserve banking. We are going to see more than 22 million bitcoins if it actually takes off.

The number of Bitcoins will never exceed 21 million: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

Also read they'll be 20 million and no more after that..?Really?

Just read these..http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-28/bitcoin-s-gains-may-fuel-central-bank-concerns-chart-of-the-day.html  http://venturebeat.com/2013/02/08/coinbase-bitcoin/

Heh, thanks.  But it is the reality of the upward price trend.  Heck,  If a large retailer (Starbucks, Amazon, etc.) or large financial firm went for BTC... We would really see a huge price increase. Supply and demand.  Look at the http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD.html   now scroll to the bottom.. See the the orange? They WANT it  (and yes the 80,000 is BTC at the different bids).... the Blue is the available to sell.  That in itself will drive the price upward.  Hold on tight its gonna get wild.  Could be humpy bumpy but still she's gonna surge upwards.

Also, for real info see the genius Clark Moody's site... fantastic.   http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/

Now you will see the green and red lines:  selling and buying (and then watch the Time & Sales) Some will lower the last trade by trading 0.0100 BTC consecutively... No volume though.  But it could cause others who watch the Bitcoin charts to have cause for concern (seeing the last trade price drop).  Its always really the volume not just the "last trade price" that dictates the trend.  Those multiple lower trades at 0.0100 BTC are the "day traders" trying to make cash on the difference.  Trying to interpret candle sticks doesn't mean much on this market really (well not for me yet.. as I'm only an intermediate trader.. not a pro  )... until it finally stabilizes at 300BTC or so.. LOL

So.. she ain't gonna be stable for a long while yet... up n up she will go.  Remember this is a world currency... I have to keep telling myself that too.

TC.

PS.. No doubt the early early adopters are very excited (the smaller blue line on the bitcoin charts volume) LOL, they prolly were the ones that bought in at 1BTC - 10BTC... now paying bills, mining gear, etc or a new car. haha

Here's my two cents. Pun intended.

Who says those greedy bastards don't have their grubby little fingers in it already.

Banksters are your enemy. For now they are our asset to gain the BTC.

I fear the banksters manipulation on the market itself...I mean they do control their money.

What I don't fear is the inevitable market bitcoin can provide.

It can and does provide(s)...black market, free market, food markets, product markets, and becoming your own bank without a teller is great.

Sooner than later you will see less exchanges and more markets...

The day you pay your electric bill in bitcoin is the day banks are destroyed by the people and for the people.

I eagerly await that day.

TooCasual's post #53 provides some interesting viewpoint. Thanks for this viewpoint! LOL, like I've gotten used to seeing BTC addresses on most poster's signatures, I didn't see one on yours(or your profile page). Maybe you don't need one. Nevermind, you could have gotten a bitcent as thanks, though now my bare thanks+keep it up! will have to do.

So it's not just speculation that's driving up the price. This may just be a normal price change in BTC where it will settle somewhere. As usual I'll wait for 10-15 days until the price settles somewhere with stability. 

Post-Gingerbread this feature is much more difficult to implement.  If you have a Galaxy SIII and don't mind a TouchWiz ROM, Synergy was able to hack PDroid to work on JellyBean.  That would give you the feature you're looking for.  It's probably available on other phones as well but I only keep up with the one I have.