If you are going to ignore media/public attention in 2011 to call the bubble at 1-2, I'd have to say 2013's bubble started at 10 based on volume and rate of price increase.
No worries, this all comes down to personal opinion and how you read the data....we are not all going to come to the same conclusions.
Topic: Confess, Single Digit Believers - page 2. (Read 3756 times)
That said, with this bubble being larger in pretty much all aspects, I'd expect a deeper crash.
IMO, this time the bubble was much smaller.
$1-2 ---> $30
15-30 folds
$30 ---> $266
8 folds
it's actually from $13, so 20 folds
Yeah, I would say 2011: 30 fold, 2013: 20 fold
so, 2015 : 10 fold?
--> and 2019 : CRASHH !!!
That said, with this bubble being larger in pretty much all aspects, I'd expect a deeper crash.
IMO, this time the bubble was much smaller.
$1-2 ---> $30
15-30 folds
$30 ---> $266
8 folds
it's actually from $13, so 20 folds
is everyone trying to figure out where the bottom is now?
that's easy, there will be long sideways action in the chart and a period of low volatility.
that's easy, there will be long sideways action in the chart and a period of low volatility.
Seems pretty likely to me. I also think it will take quite while before we find the final bottom.
That said, with this bubble being larger in pretty much all aspects, I'd expect a deeper crash.
IMO, this time the bubble was much smaller.
$1-2 ---> $30
15-30 folds
$30 ---> $266
8 folds
Again, I put the 2011 bubble hitting at $7, which gives growth of less than 5x. At $1-$2 the trading was done primarily within the community and media attention/attention by the general public hadn't hit yet. I think the Wired article was the big mark for the first bubble.
That aside, you are ignoring volume, amount of media attention, amount of hype within the community, and absolute price. This bubble was much larger, IMO.
is everyone trying to figure out where the bottom is now?
that's easy, there will be long sideways action in the chart and a period of low volatility.
that's easy, there will be long sideways action in the chart and a period of low volatility.
That said, with this bubble being larger in pretty much all aspects, I'd expect a deeper crash.
IMO, this time the bubble was much smaller.
$1-2 ---> $30
15-30 folds
$30 ---> $266
8 folds
I'd call it at somewhere near $30. Thats when media started picking back up again with "BTC near ATH" type articles causing renewed interest by the public.
That said, with this bubble being larger in pretty much all aspects (particularly in volume), I'd expect a deeper crash this time.
That said, with this bubble being larger in pretty much all aspects (particularly in volume), I'd expect a deeper crash this time.
I'd agree that the exact start is debatable, but in my opinion the speculative bubble didn't start until the media hit and the general public joined in. Until then, the speculation was limited to the relatively small group of people within the community. Again, I don't believe the chart give the whole picture (particularly as someone who was around the community back then)
Ok, but then the latest bubble didn't start at $10-15 either. More like $30-50 if I remember correctly (most profoundly at the $50 'plateau').
There have to be some of you out there. Does anybody believe Bitcoin will go below $10 again? 
yes please. go back to zero.
I'd agree that the exact start is debatable, but in my opinion the speculative bubble didn't start until the media hit and the general public joined in. Until then, the speculation was limited to the relatively small group of people within the community. Again, I don't believe the chart give the whole picture (particularly as someone who was around the community back then)
2011 bubble didn't end below where it started.
Yes it did. The last bubble started somewhere around $7 with the article in Wired (which started awareness of BTC by the general public), and ended at around $2.
Debatable. I think a lot of people would argue that the bubble started from the much longerlasting $1 - $0.7 plateau.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2010-11-25zeg2011-08-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl
2011 bubble didn't end below where it started.
Yes it did. The last bubble started somewhere around $7 with the article in Wired (which started awareness of BTC by the general public), and ended at around $2. The log chart does not give the complete picture of the Bitcoin economy in 2011.
2011 bubble didn't end below where it started.
This one probably won't. There is far more mining infrastructure, support, businesses, etc. There is too much "crap in the way." Deflating to below the start of the bubble was far more likely in 2011 than it is now, and it didn't happen then.
This one probably won't. There is far more mining infrastructure, support, businesses, etc. There is too much "crap in the way." Deflating to below the start of the bubble was far more likely in 2011 than it is now, and it didn't happen then.
Surely there is an "absolute" bottom that cannot be breached,
Yup. That number would be zero.
I believe (and have been saying it for a while).
Surely there is an "absolute" bottom that cannot be breached, due to Bitcoin's inherent value as a pseudonymous payment system, i.e. to buy black market goods on SR etc. and through private sales/for money laundering.
Although I didn't expect this recent slide from ~$100 to ~$70, I can't see how it would be possible for the USD value to drop below roughly $30 for any extended period of time, and that's a conservative estimate, more like $40-$50 I reckon.
I also think there will be huge buying pressure if the value does drop to these levels, I mean not much has inherently changed in the system apart from the ASICs, which aren't actually increasing the speed of coin production/inflation. There is also a lot more legal/legit bitcoin accepting merchants than there were when SR went viral and BTC was worth $5-$10.
Barring a huge snafu event (flaw in the protocol/51% attack) I just don't see how single digits are possible. Am I missing something?
Although I didn't expect this recent slide from ~$100 to ~$70, I can't see how it would be possible for the USD value to drop below roughly $30 for any extended period of time, and that's a conservative estimate, more like $40-$50 I reckon.
I also think there will be huge buying pressure if the value does drop to these levels, I mean not much has inherently changed in the system apart from the ASICs, which aren't actually increasing the speed of coin production/inflation. There is also a lot more legal/legit bitcoin accepting merchants than there were when SR went viral and BTC was worth $5-$10.
Barring a huge snafu event (flaw in the protocol/51% attack) I just don't see how single digits are possible. Am I missing something?
I expect the price will stabilize between 20 and 50$. I seriously doubt it will go past 100$ for years.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/asics-are-the-reason-the-price-is-dropping-and-it-will-not-stop-251347
The only way i see this changing is if there is some massive reason to buy into bitcoins. The current inflation rate from mining is too high.
If demand really drops, and AM brings full hashpower online and dumps, it may drop into single digits temporarily, but I don't think it will stay there
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/asics-are-the-reason-the-price-is-dropping-and-it-will-not-stop-251347
The only way i see this changing is if there is some massive reason to buy into bitcoins. The current inflation rate from mining is too high.
If demand really drops, and AM brings full hashpower online and dumps, it may drop into single digits temporarily, but I don't think it will stay there
There have to be some of you out there. Does anybody believe Bitcoin will go below $10 again?
Confess? Ok I CONFESS. lol. As if it is a sin to observe an obvious trend/fact.
Buy when prices are falling if you must and you are a long term holder.
But...Never trade against the trend.
Even if you are buying for the long haul, you want to enter at the lowest point possible, so pay attention to the trend.
When the trend changes, remember: no one ever went broke taking a profit.
But...Never trade against the trend.
Even if you are buying for the long haul, you want to enter at the lowest point possible, so pay attention to the trend.
When the trend changes, remember: no one ever went broke taking a profit.
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