Topic: Confidence then, confidence now! - page 2. (Read 1762 times)

Thanks for the heads up! I should let those who were commenting here years ago comment on the uncertainty of the past, definately!   Please do!

What if a market driven by mostly confidence on low volume backfires when something happens to make people less confident, when a business decides they need to dump a truckload of coins to pay their invoices regardless of confidence, or when people are stunned to see a price drop that goes against their beliefs and it turns into a snowball of panic selling.

Thought this might need its own thread. Discuss!!  

Confidence then, confidence now

In the past the future of BTC was totally unknown. Danger lurked around every corner and chance events changed the price drastically. Silk Road, hacks, forks, dodgy exchanges (still are a few but many are rushing to get their acts together )... It is very important that TA analysts come to terms with the fact that there was a lot of essentially chance price movement in the past, based on intermittent media reports and catastrophes that no-one can predict!

But looking at history is in fact very important, but for a different reason. Look at the whole picture, the bubbles coming closer together, the price constantly rising, and what do you get? The bubbles are moving closer together becuase confidence has been growing. This is leading to the S-curve or whatever you want to call it - when confidence becomes a loop alongside new users, new wallets, new adoption, etc.

Thus it is normal and logical to presume that the next "bubble" has already started. But although this will look like a gigantic bubble in a year from now, it will be so large it will necessarily take a lot of time to grow, even at +$20 or +30 per day. There has never been a level of general confidence in BTC like today - never. Hell, the US government was talking about banning it a year or two ago. BANNING!!! And BTC pulled through. But what is the US government saying now eh? And Wall Street? And e-commerce? etc. etc. etc.

Confidence is taking a quantum leap forward and this is why so many analysts will fail here. They cannot see past their calculations to feel the real market psychology right now, which is just as much based on maths as an argument with my wife is based on maths!!!