How many donations did pirate40 collect I wonder?
I am not interested in what is owed, only what was donated to him.
Nobody except Pirate knows how many wagers were sent his way.
You can however make some educated guesses by looking at the 500K BTC owed and the timespan between the average wager and the closing.
My SWAG (scientific wild ass guess) assumptions:
1) The PirateDice system has been operating for roughly 10 months however it really only got large (PPT, gblse bonds, forum buzz, shill supporters) in the last two months.
2) While some gamblers withdrew their winnings most compounded or increased their winning wagers
3) We will take Pirate at his word that the total unpaid wagers & unpaid paper winnings were ~500K BTC as closing.
4) The average unpaid wager is roughly 12 weeks old then 500K / (1.07^10) = ~220K BTC wagered.
5) 15% of the total amount wagered were paid out with winnings. These shorter term paid winnings had an average age of 8 weeks. thus ~60K BTC (220 * 0.15 * 1.07^8) was paid out and not re-wagered.
My SWAG conclusion:
~220K BTC were wagered.
~60K BTC were paid out as winning and not re-wagered.
PirateDice has ~180K BTC in assets (or more like USD equivalent)
PirateDice owes ~561K BTC (500K * 1.07 * 1.05)
Once again a total SWAG it likely is completely wrong but probably in the ballpark.
