Topic: Consolidating Trend -- A Page From Arepo's Notes - page 2. (Read 6080 times)

Just want to say, i am enjoying this thread, y'all are going at it but its all good : - ) Nice to have the lively discussion. Good everyone!

so in what way does news matter?

short answer -- we can't know.

good thing is, often, we don't have to know. the market internalizes the information for us.

not sure if you saw the following post, T, but if you parse through what i'm saying i think it might be a profound insight to you.

i'm guessing you don't have much of a background in science...

let me first point out that correlation does not imply causation, that is, just because it happened "at the same time" does not mean that A caused B or vice versa. cum hoc ergo propter hoc is a logical fallacy.

secondly, even if you value this hypothesis, you need to be able to support it with some kind of evidence. i'm not saying that it is definitely not the case that the Overstock news prompted the "mini-rally", but you seem to be claiming that it definitely is the case, without any supporting evidence whatsoever. this is a problem. if you don't ever second guess your intuition, you'll never realize how often it is wrong...

some things to consider about the limits of our knowledge:

when?: do you think everyone learned about the Overstock news at exactly the same moment? probably not. if it had an effect on price, it was likely "priced-in" a lot more gradually than your claim assumes.

how?: are you sure that the Overstock news should have an immediate bullish influence on the price? perhaps in the long run, because of increased adoption, but in the short run, there are actually some bearish possibilities.

the answers to both of these questions of WHEN and HOW news events and other external forces affect price are mired in the complexities of the market, and are the farthest, farthest cry from "simple facts that everyone can see with their own eyes".

i hope you took a moment to reflect on these important limitations to the claims we can make about price behavior.

--arepo

I don't think it all reduces to news at all. If you have a minute or two please explain briefly how it matters in the way you think it does. I would be very grateful for the insight!

Good call, arepo. Let's see what the next days bring.

Ignore the people who think it all reduces to news. News matters, but not in the way they think it does.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empirical_evidence

So, were those who expected the bounce this morning -- absent Overstock news -- wrong?

What is your evidence that the news caused the rally? You are suggesting that absent this news, the market would not have rallied. What is your evidence for that?

until the big boy exchanges come on board it is not that hard to see the churn that the bots do to grab money so picking ranges between each major moves can be easy money if you don't leave your screen for too long.

I called the 770-810 range and had to adjust a little higher but have made good returns sticking to this.. 5 cycles so far, will the overstock news bring us up or is it the volume consolidation to the bots that they will spike us up now and then level down again?

I've always believed you invest on what you think, but trade on what you think others think  (b-level bots in this case)

You are joking aren't you?   Come on please. If you can't admit simple facts that everyone (including people who can't do maths, geometry, etc.) can see with their own eyes then what's the point?

So it is just a coincidence that the Overstock news came online and minutes later the rally (which is still going well) happened?

you should read up on the Efficient Market Hypothesis and consider how much of what you claim is externally influencing price may already be contained within the price and volume data itself. if a sufficient amount of such information is somehow contained in the data already, then the data itself is the complete picture. traders, through their actions, factor things like virality and fundamentals into the price data with their every action, so there's no need to develop models as to how these things might affect the price as if they were external to it. i hope that clears some things up.

--arepo

it's funny that you claim to know for sure what caused the move up. i would take the scientific approach and say that the fractal model is sufficient to predict that the price would move up after such a large volume bounce off of the moving support, and so Occam's Razor encourages me to ignore any other data. it is because of this that i believe market forces win against news every time. in fact, i have empirical evidence to support this claim, while you merely assume that it was the news


i appreciate the good words and the accountability! it's good to know that many others are also independently testing my work with positive results.

trading on the scales i have been commenting on in this issue of "Arepo's Notes" is a little hectic, and very risky. the longer time scales you apply these methods to, however, the more likely you will make profits, and this is simply due to the stochastic nature of price movement versus the deterministic rules that govern its internal structure. it is simultaneously a fractal with consistent patterns, and a stochastic function that is impossible to predict with 100% accuracy. on smaller scales it looks like a random walk, but as you zoom out it begins to look like a smooth and continuous function, and on scales in-between you will find consistent nested patterns with startling consistency.

that being said, spotting tops and bottoms is essentially the main way to increase your holdings during longer trends. buying as close to market bottoms as possible to make gains in BTC and selling as close to market tops to make gains in USD both work for me, personally. i do believe in the long-term future of Bitcoin and its heretofore undisturbed infinite bullrun, but trading the swings on all scales is not only lucrative, but also very fun it's easy to calculate the returns one would make simply holding, and my methods have shown to outperform this benchmark consistently. i would recommend that you pick a simple strategy and test it out for some time period, and then compare your returns to what you would have made simply holding. then divide the amount of hours you spent working with predictive models by the additional gains, and decide whether or not actively trading is a worthwhile strategy for you!

happy trading

--arepo

Not marginalizing Arepo's work.

I regularly ask him questions and they are sincere.

I happen to think he is one of the more balanced analysts.

But I feel like analysts, particularly those who have been around for a while, are spending too much time using data from previous bubbles and not able to keep up with changes in fundamentals. It is not their fault particularly - the situation is difficult to read because it is being influenced by virality and factors difficult to factor into day to day calculations. I have explained this in several posts.

Hey Arepo,

Just wanted to say that I appreciate your posts and this thread in particular. I'm as hopeful as T. Stuart is for the long term but not sure how he justifies flippantly marginalizing your hard work, which since I began tracking it, has been extremely accurate.

While I can appreciate his enthusiasm and tend to agree that hodling will yield long term benefit and gain, isn't there value in short term gains in earning some fiat or making the right moves to maximize your btc holdings as well? IDK, I'm just a dumb noob with much to learn.

My comment wasn't relating to the fractal in particular - like I said I was enjoying watching it form!

It was just to point out that the Overstock news caused a mini-rally and that this news was not caused by trader sentiment, a market move, or anything else.

no, no, the thing about how news doesn't affect price the way you think it affects price. news affects traders the way traders affect price, i.e. bad news is popular during natural periods of FUD and vice versa -- news can and will be spun according the the emotions of the traders.

what confused me more was your comment about the fractal?


in my last post i correctly identified a micro-term bottom using the fractal model. "oops there it goes!" makes no sense in this context.

--arepo

What? Was that a post explaining that reports are pre-written and when the price moves published if suiting the movement?

That wouldn't apply in the case of the Overstock news.

Perhaps you mean something else? I haven't been checking the threads so much recently. Been working, you know! 

sorry? i'm not sure what you're trying to say. and please come off it with the news thing... didn't Blitz just demonstrate how that whole thing works in the wall observer thread? haha

edit:


thanks! always glad to hear this

Oops! There goes that fractal!

I guess news does trigger things in some cases.

love your posts

Nice to watch the fractal patterns you are pointing out in your posts!

just a quick clarification -- 3 - 5 days from 08 Jan, including that day, so we may see a breakout as early as tomorrow.