Topic: Coronavirus Prediction Thread - page 3. (Read 1005 times)

Q1 or Q2 2021 is the best bet, and by voting on the poll, I know that SARS-CoV-2 would not be eradicated but rather vaccines would be introduced to prevent it from spreading at an unprecedented rate such as what we're experiencing right now. I would love to give some details as to why I voted for Q1 2021.

Researchers all around the globe are currently working on a collaborative effort to get the perfect mix for a vaccine for the virus. China managed to get the whole genomic sequence of the virus on mid-January, followed by France on 29, January. This is quite a feat given that such genomic researches takes months before a virus is fully sequenced, take MERS and SARS for example. Those two coronaviruses strain were on the loose for 2 years before they were controlled and vaccines were introduced. With the shared efforts of top researchers around the world, we managed to get it done by a month and qPCR testing kits were deployed almost immediately by pharma firms and research hubs.

With a virus that boasts an R0 > 2.3 (where R0 = reproductive ratio of the virus), the spread would be incomprehensible if necessary precautions weren't taken seriously. Just take Spain and Italy for example. That's why community quarantines were imposed in hopes of preventing the spread of the virus further, and ensuring that those infected will be treated with the utmost care in order for them to recover easily. Wuhan, the origin of the disease, managed to get out of the mess in ~3 months since the first known case was confirmed in December. For 2 days now, there are no new cases of the disease within the population and China slowly easing the quarantine on the province.


However, South Korea is a different case: they imposed no lockdowns whatsoever but strictly advised their citizens to stay at home and be calm. They also managed to produce qPCR testing kits in an extremely fast rate and was capable of testing 20,000 citizens in a day, so if the person shows early signs of symptoms, they are easily tested, advised to stay at home, and monitored via a mobile app. They managed to flatten the curve in a short span of time without resorting to quarantines whatsoever.

So what am I trying to point out here? Every country has their own measures in preventing the spread of the disease. Wuhan managed to be COVID-free in 3 months, while South Korea managed to reduce those new cases in just a month and half. It depends entirely on how would a nation's government reacts to the pandemic. Vaccines work, but they would require extensive testing and hearings before clinical trials on humans can proceed, and with Trump (lol) suggesting a highly unstable remedy against said disease, it would take a longer time before the world goes to rest again with the said virus. There would be isolated cases here and there until the vaccines arrive in Q1 or Q2 2020, so until then the best thing nations can do is to prevent its spread and wait for the affected ones convalesce before they lift the quarantines.

Although we need a fast solution on this Pandemic the clinical study is not something that can be done in a matter of weeks or a short period of time, it will take 10 months or even longer before we can prove that the vaccine is ready to inject and to be commercialized, my prediction is the third or fourth quarter of the year is crucial for all of us because the infected are growing at a VERY FAST RATE the, so many countries cannot keep up with it.

We really need to accept that fact that we are all shocked because of the sudden spread of the virus Covid-19. We also can't deny that most of the countries are not prepared to experience this kind of crisis. Most especially those frontliners who risk their lives just to help people recover from the virus. But still, the percentage of transmission is still higher than the people recovering from it. I know we need to become optimistic but we also need to face the reality, we shouldn't be blind of what is really happening in our community.

As you try to realized the problems that we are facing, then we can now think and discuss those possible solution that we can contribute to the government. I remembered, when I was in Highschool where Aristotle said "No great mind has ever existed without a touch of madness", it means we need to experience this crisis in order to acquire peace and calmness where everything will go back to normal and all of the countries are done recovering from the virus.

I voted Q4 2020 because as soon as possible, everyone want this virus to stop immediately because people can't go to work to earn money for their family. Being optimistic will help us to lessen our worries and stress and we know that our fronliners, scientist, doctors, will do their best to fight this crisis. Hoping for the doctors also to take care of their health so that they will not be infected even though they're the one who are more vulnerable to it. But if you think critically and if you will base your prediction in reality, I think that it will reach year 2020.


It is never easy to find a cure or vaccine for a certain virus or diseases because it requires a lot of time, effort, and budget to do some experiments and researches about that. It will soon be discovered but right now, we just need to follow what government told us so that we can slow down the transmission of the virus from time to time. Also we need to take care of our friends, family and ourselves so that we are safe. We just need patience and discipline during times like this because the transmission starts with us, citizens.

Probably, it will take 1 or 2 years to find the vaccine to it and I know that it takes too long to discover but what can we do? We just need to accept the reality that we are not that prepare and we're also not expecting this to happen. We are not expecting for the virus to ruin and destroy our community, economy, and lives. Most especially those workers, students and professionals who are risking their lives just to save a lot of people infected by the virus.

Agree, no need to explicitly states that actually because it will create a perception that the majority is voting for x.

I'm afraid the prediction is becoming more like a wish than rational judgment. It's also become scarier because some wise man said: "the majority is always wrong." That said, if the virus cannot be eradicated this year, I'm afraid that many people will lose hope.

Anyway.. if you guys interested in live updates https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgylp3Td1Bw
It's getting more severe, especially Europe.

Please stay at home!

We really can't predict the exact time when will this corona virus have vaccine but i'll try to predict just for fun. So, the covid-19 will stop on 2021 and it may stop on 2022 but as we all know people can survive the corona virus by proper hygiene and eating healthy food plus following government's instructions. There are infected people who recovered from the virus.

The clinical testing which the medical experts are doing right now will take months probably 15 months based on what I've read, but I'm hoping for a miracle to happen that they can shorten the time to make it 5 or 6 months so I voted on third quarter but I'm praying it will be contained on the second quarter, life is getting hard on our location.

This is a tough voting. I do vote quarter 4 cause I cant see any time now that it will be gone easily. Imagine instead of lowering the stats gone up with just few days. What more in the coming months. I do wish those who are working on cure or any vaccine that works to prevent its widespread can do their work faster to help and save all from too many deaths.

This is true but many countries wouldnt wait to see an end of this chaotic mess. China should pay for everything they destroy here.

In an optimistic scenario, I can foresee the outbreak getting contained in 2-3 months from now. It has been proven that the Coronavirus has less probability of surviving in hot and humid climates. And in Northern hemisphere, the summer season is about to start. Already there are lockdowns in many of the countries. Combined with this, the outbreak may get contained in a couple of months.

I voted for the second quarter of the month I'm really hoping that we can find a cure and and it will be manufactured and send to all infected, but there are a lot of reports that it will take 12 to 18 months of clinical study before the vaccine can be use, but time is not our friend here, we must do something fast, because the number is growing at a very fast rate.

trials are always needed a lot of time so that explains why I've chosen 2021

3rd quarter of this year or 4th but it depends on the progress on finding  the vaccine because thats the only thing that would resolved out this pandemic.
Some said that they are studying it and asking for a year and half duration which is already too long.Im seeing lots of fake news in Facebook telling about
the cure but no one had proven it out.

Im hopeful for this one though: https://time.com/5807669/coronavirus-vaccine-moderna/

I think it will subside by Q4 of this year but the virus will continue to infect others until next year. In order for us to come back to our normal lives, we need a vaccine and it will take time to find one, probably 12-18 months.

I've read an article.


-but the cost of this one will be overwhelming. Sure, many people will be immune and will be efficent in fighting against the virus, but millions of people will die. I think the best approach all the countries could do is Mass testing. A lot of country reports that the virus is starting to slow down. South korea have been successful because of their mass testing. It will be easier to identify new cases and isolate them, track people who have contact with them, asymptomatic people are driving this virus to go crazy. We have to know where is the virus in order for us to contain it. There is hope, it won't come very soon, but it will come.

Oh, man... Learn to use dots and commas. It's really hard to understand what you're saying.

Of course people are getting better. It's not an uncureable (I hope that's a word ) disease. It's a disease somewhat more dangerous than an ordinary flu. The problem is that it is spreading much quicker and easier than flu.

Today there are a lot of people getting well and this is the a good news and it is better if the virus today are not spreading and make a cure immediately because there are a lot of people still getting infected even there some people getting cured immediately also there is another news again that there is another virus spreading came from the rats, and this is bad if this will be true there are two virus spreading and infect people and there is no cure. Still we need to trust the front liners and the backliners to support and make a cure immediately.

That's how some of the threads goes here in the gambling discussion. Sometimes it takes a few days for discussions to go through.

Depends, it's already looking good on the side of China so things could turn out for the better in the near future for other countries. And we're seeing some improvements as the difference between the number of new cases this day and yesterday was at least a thousand.

   I voted for Q2, but it can spread through Q3! It can't last more than that I believe, in China there's no more spreading, with this
hard measures  soon we will see the end of corona, but I am afraid about what's coming after! Inflation because of the massive
money printing announcements, destroyed businesses. All I know is that consequences will be hard!

I wish it would be at least late of Q2 or in Q3 of this year .
I think if this continue some country might fall or be hard to survive.

I hope all this ends as soon as possible at least in Q2, already tired of facing this disaster.  This paralyzed activity cannot last long so that the world economy remains stable.

This time everyone is required to do self-awareness so as not to do activities outside the home if it is not important.
In my country, a government ban has been implemented regarding people who make a crowd somewhere.
Even infected people are still there every day.

Usually vaccines do take a year to be fully developed. I don't think either that it would consume such time span considering the current environment, materials, discoveries, and ideas that we have right now compare to what we have before. Humanity have evolved from creating those medical stuff. The thing is that virus could cope with the environment where it was in, thus, it would be complicated (though it was complicated in the first place). Anyway, let us just hope that someone out there could carry it on, Earth have suffered too much in this 1st quarter of 2020, and let us hope for a better run in the next several months.