Topic: Coronavirus & quarantine & effect on BTC Difficulty. How Bad/Likely? Poll! (Read 585 times)

i assume you're referring to that harvard epidemiologist? he apparently revised that down and doesn't seem too sure of himself:


https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/6/21161234/coronavirus-covid-19-science-outbreak-ends-endemic-vaccine

i've seen much lower estimates too. it's obviously hard to speak about any of this stuff with certainty.

as for BTC difficulty, no obvious effects yet. the last few adjustments:


https://btc.com/stats/diff

the catch is if the infection rate is 3x that of the flu...and 10x more serious than the flu...and the experts say 40% to 60% will catch this worldwide.



Well, that will be IMHO, much higher in cities, even cities of say 5K or above in the USA as an example.

Add to all the 'fun facts' above, that it will take up to 1 to 1.5 years for a vaccine...a person has to wonder whether those who get it at the 'beginning' of this Pandemic

won't have better medical care and such, before every 4th person out of 10 people you see on the street is contagious.



Even if (as I hope) this virus is milder, as they also say 80% recover. Who wants to get something that is a cross between a hard flu sickness and lung congestion/Pneumonia!

This would suck and put you down for 2 weeks to a month, even if 'indeed' 80% recover, no matter how 'crummy' this scenario is.

So with my above facts, what do people really think if 40% of folk who work in this country..simply can't for 2 weeks to a month, due to being ill with these

flu/pneumonia symptoms...will do to the economy. This could be economically and health-wise almost as bad as the sickness itself for most people, in their lost

wages and medical expenses in the USA. Again, if above had 'some' truth to this and it really does take up to 1 to 1.5 years for a vaccinee.

Hate to say the sky is falling, but get your sh*t together, the current Trump Administration, IMHO, certainly does not seem to be on the ball!

Brad

I reckon they should use bitcoin to fix this hehehe. They will hit 2 birds with 1 stone. They can report more than healthy electricity consumption and activity, however, they can also produce bitcoins as grounds for the fraudulent behavior hehehehe.



Local companies and officials are fraudulently boosting electricity consumption and other metrics in order to meet tough new back-to-work targets as the spread of the new coronavirus in China wanes, a Caixin investigation has found.

Leaving lights and air conditioners on all day in empty offices, turning on equipment, faking staff rosters and even coaching factory workers to deceive inspectors are just some of the ways companies fabricate rosy statistics for local governments to report up the chain.

Read in full https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/Lights-go-on-but-no-one-goes-to-work

people who can afford to stay home will..those who can't, not work, will work and get sick...sucks...and more people in the USA will declare bankruptcy because of this and health bills as well

to add on to this...because some of the effects of this coronavirus can have lasting effects especially on those with pre-existing conditions...oh and the Trump Administration is saying that

medicare and such and private insurance may not cover the virus and/or the complications.

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-administration-says-it-might-not-cover-all-coronavirus-healthcare-2020-3

cost extra to get tested

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/public-global-health/486146-coronavirus-testing-could-cost-some-patients-extra

sh*t what a cluster

So according to this link, there are 7.8 billion people on the Earth, more or less, for math use. https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

I heard PBS Radio Today...that this virus could have up. to 1.5% infection rate. Even if this epidemic is milder as we hope. The 1918 pandemic

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12/1/05-0979_article with a death rate of greater than 2.5% BUT over 40% of the world's population was infected.

An expert on PBS radio today, who wrote a book on the 1918 pandemic, https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/03/03/john-barry-on-pandemics says that

he had 'friends that model such stuff' and project a 40% to 60% infection rate worldwide. Thus with 7.8 billion people on the Earth x say 40% infection rate and

a 1.5% infection rate would be worldwide deaths at that 40% infection rate of 3,120,000 deaths worldwide if my Math is correct.

It would be much, much worse after supplies run out and also in developing countries so you could double that. Also, supposedly a much higher risk if over 50 years old.

To be blunt, there would be more deaths from the 'shutdown' of trade and essential services that the pandemic, IMHO. Commerce even for say, worse case, for 3 weeks

would just stop in an attempt for this pandemic to burn itself out.

Anyway, I'm retired, I may just sometime in the future have the lifestyle of a live a home hermit, if it gets that bad, for others who can't afford to NOT, go to work, over the

age of 50 ..main breadwinners..it could be devastating indeed and yet another risk in your life.

As to how this all applies to BTC? Well, it could be BTC will not act as a store of value under a pandemic. You can 'liquidate' BTC instantly with your phone to refill

your emergency fund in say, Venezuela. There will be countries that will close banks and other dubious actions to keep control. So BTC may indeed be the 'great'

emergency fund but NOT a store of value and drop the same as every other speculative asset out there like stocks...just because only thing out there to buy stuff in

especially dubious 3rd world countries when things may become all 'unglued'

Anyway, we will just have to wait and see how this plays out I guess.

Brad

Thank you for this very useful link. I suggest all of you to see this, and stop worrying too much because more people are recovering than dying from cofid 19. Hyperbole media reporting often causes panic, may worry but must be based on knowledge. Don't forget to monitor information from the official health account in your country, follow the instructions, keep it clean, wash your hands before touching areas on the face and glands, etc.

I don't think this has a direct impact on the movement of cryptocurrency. Although the trend tends to go down, there is no significant movement, do not then relate it to this outbreak, there could be other factors. Stop speculating which tends to cause anxiety.

Of course, the influence from the coronavirus will be visible on various indicators, but I think it's too early to talk about some huge risks associated with its spread. It will be necessary to sound the alarm if a drop in network hashrate begins.

that is my fear...is BTC/crypto simply a 'speculative asset. like stocks that are good in good times but really bad in bad times? In other words, the $$$ that goes into BTC/crypto as a

a speculative asset is not determined by the whole 'store of value' argument..but more like cash, in bad times the first thing to get spent to fill up the old emergency fund before you liquidate

you other more cumbersome assets like stocks and gold etc? That would be bad, very, very bad for me and my HODL BTC/crypto position indeed.

I really was not a big fan of today (Monday 3/2/20) and stocks go up big and BTC/crypto follows...we will see i guess.

The halving is in 2 months now, so we should see a rise in the hashrate and the difficulty. But except today we haven't see that. The difficulty and the hashrate haven't increased at all in february, they have been totally flat.   It means there is a real impact from the coronavirus, and the close of mining facilities in China.

https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate?timespan=30days
https://www.blockchain.com/fr/charts/difficulty?timespan=60days

You can't say that and just feel indifferent about the corona virus. This has become a global health challenge just as WHO has declared it. Therefore, it is not only affecting China but many other countries have been recorded to have cases of corona virus even in some African country(ies) too. So, talking about miners, it is likely going to affect the system of mining since transmission isn't selected.

unfortunately it does not really affect the crypto, when the virus was announced I think there is no significant effect on it, stable market conditions and there is no drastic increase / decrease after the news circulates, where if there is news that really gives effect to the crypto market will make ups and downs that are not reasonable.
that does not mean I expect this outbreak to make a market increase because of the paralysis of some Chinese industries due to this disease.
but it doesn't seem to have an effect, and we expect this outbreak to end soon.

store of value by definition is something "that retains purchasing power into the future". it has nothing to do with how easy or hard it is to move it. in fact fiat is considered a "store of value".
from wikipedia:

and it is more of a long term thing rather than short term and daily fluctuations. with that definition bitcoin doesn't exactly fit in as store of value because its value "shoots" up in long term rather than retaining the same purchasing power and having small rises! but also it could be considered a store of value because it doesn't lose value.

This is also true of any crisis..imagine you are trying to prepare your likely 'emergency fund' which also likely is empty....in say Venezuela

Any of that current currency, if you have such, is probably getting even more worthless due to last week's dump of stocks/BTC/etc. So you can

dig out your hidden emergency gold and/or stocks or take out a loan (all doubtful) or you can liquidate that Bitcoin you've been accumulating

that you were and are buying food, in say Paraguay or some such, because they never will again take Venezuelan currency.

But with this handy/dandy BTC/crypto with the ability to get USD out of such back from BTC and into say USD into your phone, you now can stock up for coronavirus.

This is happening with everyone around the world due to the instant and easy liquidation of BTC/Crypto for such pandemics we may be in the process of having.

So, BTC as plan-B for emergencies this should NOT be a surprise. Was to me, just saying, it should not have been. This easy liquidation is a feature of BTC, the same

as accumulation is.

So we will see how this pans out if/when the stock market continues to fall and other things happen....currencies get manipulated around the world and IMHO

BTC  price will swing back to upward and accumulation will resume and such BTC for the same ease of use above and BTC's decentralized nature.

But this time as a store of value, for these further games by governments and the next round or two of emergencies with this crisis. Again, IMHO. This liquidation

as a phase of BTC/crypto sales and price, dumping is just the 1st act of this whole coronavirus, again IMHO. Boom or Doom, we will be the first to know!

later

Brad

The below are my thoughts on WHY is it that BTC is not acting like a store of value ...like we figured...

in hindsight...being easy to move and everyone needing to fill up their likely or never had emergency funds

it is the 'quickest' method for quick cash worldwide on a 'cashout'

my other ramblings below on this view (guess/idea/lunacy?)

Interesting..you have a crisis...a potential 'pandemic'

thus BTC is used as a store of value in countries where such things would be much worse..you can't trust your government

or your banks are corrupt or whatever, like say Venezuela.

So now you have your crisis, the one that states 'bitcoin will be a store of value' but what you find is..don't want to take $$$ out

of the bank (or hard or like Venezuela you have no cash in banks)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So of all the assets, you have set aside like, gold/silver and US currency and Bitcoin

which is the 'easiest to move' in a country like Venezuela for quick emergency cash?

You could make the same argument for the USA..do I really want to call my broker to move $$$ out? Or wait for long-term on such?

Say you are cash poor and 'iffy' on your finances if this goes on for a bit, as a result of a potential layoff or whatever or coronavirus fears...due to slowdown and stoppage of parts in China?

But damn, I can dump BTC to 'refund' my (ashamed because empty) "emergency/catastrophe fund' in case any/all of above come to pass.

Take this logic worldwide on the status of the current economic issues of all these worldwide and peoples likely reaction to such and it seems to humble a BTC/Crypto HODL'er indeed!

So we have the 'twin' fun times of when the stock market crashes on fears of something like this ...discretionary $$$ move out of BTC/Crypto and we dump too.

But like today, when the stock market pumps, BTC/Crypto also dumps as much or more.

Great thing BTC as a store of value for trying times...until the trying times come...damn this is harsh...

HODL I guess, but I'm also as 'cash strapped' as all the idiots above if this continues, so sh*t, this cluster could go on awhile if my 'dubious' above views are kinda correct. Sad

The only hope is this resolves itself and stabilizes and Bitcoin recoups as a store of value and being just temporary shakeup/crash in BTC/Crypto. Indeed I hope so!

---------------------------------------------------------

So sh*t on a stick, I hope this is the end of such and at least BTC/Crypto acts like Gold say and goes, again, at least, 'sideways' in price vs further 'likely' dumps

in the stock market, etc

Chump or Champ or Pump or Dump or Boom or Doom

we will be the first to know!

Brad

As usual people are spreading panic with no reason. Corona virus is nothing more but just another version of flu. Also, it doesn't affect the price of Bitcoin in any way although some are trying to use that histeria about virus as a reason for Bitcoin price fall. So.don't believe everything you read in media and be rational.and current Bitcoin price is a result of corrections that happen all the time in the volatility cycle.

I also vote for no effect at all .
I don't see a reason for the miners to stop even for this corona virus outbreak.
I think this is also the perfect time for them to mine since they are already locked down so it is their way to earn money.

I think a lot of people are making way too much of this whole Coronavirus thing. There are even people buying less Corona Beer now and the company are saying that they are losing millions in sales, because people stopped buying that brand of beer.  

The ASIC manufacturing plants are almost fully automated, so they hardly have any employees working in these factories and those workers are wearing protective clothing for dust in any way. They will increase the price, because the virus is a good excuse for them to pump the price.  

Silicon valley must get their act together and start competing with the Chinese manufacturers of ASIC technology.  

Just as an aside.

BTC was at a high this month on 2/13/20 of $10,425.85 USD.

15 days BTC was at the current price (just looked) of $8,740.45 USD.

This is a 16.16% dump in price in those 15 days for Bitcoin, as best as I can determine.

The Dow Jones was on 2/13/20 a price of $29,290.85 USD.

Again, 15 days Down Jones was today at $25,409.36 USD.

This is a 13.25% dump in price in those 13 days for Dow Jones, as best as I can determine.

Gold was $1,575.74 on 2/13/20. Gold was $1,585.78 on 2/28/20.

So far stocks and BTC are pretty much neck and neck and gold was pretty much flat in price.

We will see, I find it interesting we are in this groove with stock losses.

Anyway, for your consideration of the possible correlation of the Coronavirus situation.

Brad

You picked a bad one here. Smallpox. That thing was "destroyed", and written off from the world. Decades ago many countries stopped applying the vaccine for this and without the vaccine it is quite deadly, but since its not supposed to exist, it shouldn't be a problem...

Unless someone lied and kept a live specimen as bio weapon, but since the vaccine remains it shouldn't be a problem in theory (except for the first infected), should an outbreak somehow occurred again.

Of course there are far worse out there that could be used as bio weapon, some without any cure or vaccine.

Mass hysteria does nothing good even in the worst scenario, and the procedure remains pretty much the same anyway: Quarantine, isolate, treat the infected best you can, wait until it dies out. My only fear is if that virus escapes into poor "3rd world" countries, it will spread like wildfire.

My friend flew from China two days ago and it looks like reality and the information that the media shows are different. There are empty streets and no people anywhere. Flights are canceled. It sounds like a disaster.. but everything will work out I'm hope.