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Topic: Correction Overdue - page 2. (Read 4903 times)

legendary
Activity: 1064
Merit: 1001
November 29, 2013, 04:49:00 PM
#27
This is based on prior market moves. I believe we have switched gears forever.

"When you see reference to a new paradigm you should always, under all circumstances, take cover."
-- John Kenneth Galbraith

Didn't Bitcoin started as a new paradigm? So those things may not apply.
sr. member
Activity: 351
Merit: 250
I'm always grumpy in the morning.
November 29, 2013, 04:29:13 PM
#26
This is based on prior market moves. I believe we have switched gears forever.

"When you see reference to a new paradigm you should always, under all circumstances, take cover."
-- John Kenneth Galbraith
legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1022
Anarchy is not chaos.
November 29, 2013, 02:55:50 PM
#25
This is based on prior market moves. I believe we have switched gears forever.

That would be interesting, but I based my speculation on markets in general. There is nothing more dynamic than trade.

I still think it will bobble around, and given how early we are in this game, I think it could have some significant downswings. I don't think it'll drop like a rock again, however, as Germany has accepted it as currency, the US is considering it, and China seems rather bullish on it as well. That's some heavy hitters right there, and regulations, when they come, will likely drive prices higher as well.

But the biggest long term driver will be general adoption. The more people use it, even as savings, the higher it's likely to trade. I think this run up is partially a correction upwards, and partially a bit of mania. I don't think we've hit the top, but I do believe the parabola will start to bend to the right real soon. In a way, I hope I'm wrong, because if it keeps going up like a rocket, my little stash will be worth quite a bit. But this is the way I see it, as of the moment.

And now for something completely different, I love your sig!
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
HODL OR DIE
November 29, 2013, 02:49:24 PM
#24
This is based on prior market moves. I believe we have switched gears forever.
legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1022
Anarchy is not chaos.
November 29, 2013, 02:24:14 PM
#23
As bitcoin starts to go mainstream, I think the prices will trend upward for a long time. However, there ought to be some interesting swings (profit taking, odd news, etcetera). At least I sincerely hope so, as I will buy when it drops. In the meantime, it's one hell of a ride, ain't it?
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
November 29, 2013, 02:13:20 PM
#22
Correction to 10k.
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 501
November 29, 2013, 02:01:43 PM
#21
Past performance is not indicative of future performance.  Why do people keep bringing up what BTC did in April?  Or 2012?  Or last week....?  It doesn't matter.

Well using data is the only way to estimate the future. Psychic abilities is also a way but aren't yet scientifically proven  Tongue

Orrrr.....a more reasonable way would be to look at fundamentals, trends, and world events. Past performance means squat.
hero member
Activity: 574
Merit: 506
November 29, 2013, 07:40:24 AM
#20
Past performance is not indicative of future performance.  Why do people keep bringing up what BTC did in April?  Or 2012?  Or last week....?  It doesn't matter.

It does matter. Market ultimately revolves around psychology and human mind never really changes.
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
November 29, 2013, 07:14:23 AM
#19
Intuition is not magic, it's just a thought process one is not conscious of.

Intuition is enough when you have to think of simple things like "am i going to have a good time in the party tonight?"
Not for chaotic situations lile price movement. (Although some parties can be pretty chaotic as well)
newbie
Activity: 35
Merit: 0
November 29, 2013, 06:59:33 AM
#18
Intuition is not magic, it's just a thought process one is not conscious of.
sr. member
Activity: 345
Merit: 250
November 29, 2013, 06:53:57 AM
#17
We did already have a correction to 400 last time it broke 1000 in china
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
November 29, 2013, 06:38:30 AM
#16
Past performance is not indicative of future performance.  Why do people keep bringing up what BTC did in April?  Or 2012?  Or last week....?  It doesn't matter.

Well using data is the only way to estimate the future. Psychic abilities is also a way but aren't yet scientifically proven  Tongue
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 501
November 28, 2013, 05:06:44 PM
#15
Past performance is not indicative of future performance.  Why do people keep bringing up what BTC did in April?  Or 2012?  Or last week....?  It doesn't matter.
sr. member
Activity: 351
Merit: 250
I'm always grumpy in the morning.
November 28, 2013, 04:01:01 PM
#14
(Qualitative) warning signs:

* people are feeling more comfortable about buying bitcoin generally, it does not seem to be such a ridiculous idea

(many of my friends have asked me to buy more. Some of them are now coming round to the idea of buying bitcoin , they would never have considered it before)

Question is if they've just started buying now or if they've already bought. The "dumb" (uninformed) money tends to come in after a bubble has run for a while, and extend it further.

I do agree that conditions around here in the forum are getting a bit .. giddy, though.
legendary
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1003
November 28, 2013, 02:21:10 PM
#13
In that it can't go up in a straight line forever, yes a correction is due.  But it isn't happening in the markets, so why should it happen in bitcoin!
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
November 28, 2013, 02:12:10 PM
#12
Hi guys

We are way overdue a large swing and correction in bitcoin.

All the warning signs are in place.

We could hit 400-600 soon.

EDIT: Maybe not 75% as originally posted, but certainly a 40% swing is possible.

My prediction.

China doesnt seem to care about your prediction.

China is sleeping right now. Only the west is trading. (Time in China 0300)

Another warning sign people get to complacent. There is no China trading right now!

OP you should have This in the first post:

Disclaimer: The following message is coming straight out of my ass. Please make investment responsibly.

sr. member
Activity: 260
Merit: 250
November 28, 2013, 02:06:40 PM
#11
Hi guys

We are way overdue a large swing and correction in bitcoin.

All the warning signs are in place.

We could hit 400-600 soon.

EDIT: Maybe not 75% as originally posted, but certainly a 40% swing is possible.

My prediction.

China doesnt seem to care about your prediction.

China is sleeping right now. Only the west is trading. (Time in China 0300)

Another warning sign people get to complacent. There is no China trading right now!
sr. member
Activity: 260
Merit: 250
November 28, 2013, 02:04:45 PM
#10
EDIT: removed 75% , see below.

75% is movement from 250 to 50... what we saw back in March/April.

Since then, swings have definitely been decreasing in percentage terms, and bitcoin has been becoming less volatile.  Except for the past few weeks. For example , we moved 45% around 10 days ago.

So, I don't think we have another 75% movement occuring this time. However, we had a 26% correction at 9th/10th Nov , a 40% correction at 19/20th Nov , now we are approaching 30 Nov / 1 Dec , it makes sense for something similar to occur.

(Qualitative) warning signs:

* people are feeling more comfortable about buying bitcoin generally, it does not seem to be such a ridiculous idea

(many of my friends have asked me to buy more. Some of them are now coming round to the idea of buying bitcoin , they would never have considered it before)

* media becoming more positive

* increasing complacency generally

Difficult to put a quantative figure on it , but we're definitely getting close to a correction of some time  - where all these weak hands who have recently bought in begin to sell.

This is only of concern to the short term trader as bitcoin has always recovered eventually from these corrections.
legendary
Activity: 948
Merit: 1026
November 28, 2013, 01:52:06 PM
#9
What is "correct" for bitcoin?  Cheesy
hero member
Activity: 574
Merit: 506
November 28, 2013, 01:50:06 PM
#8
Hi guys

We are way overdue a large swing and correction in bitcoin.

All the warning signs are in place.

We could hit 400-600 soon.

EDIT: Maybe not 75% as originally posted, but certainly a 40% swing is possible.

My prediction.

China doesnt seem to care about your prediction.
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