Topic: Could 1 satoshi become worth $1? (Read 5329 times)

Never heard of beano. Where do you live? I live in Vancouver. It's pretty common here. A can of soda sounds weird to me, so I don't know how else you would mention "an aluminum can, usually 355ml's worth of carbonated drink such as coca cola and sprite"?

What's important is to try to calculate what will be the purchasing power of 1 BTC in the next 10 or 20 years, not the parity with dollar which could indeed decrease a lot. The question is: how??

I know, that wasn't what I was saying. I was just intrigued by the phrase 'a can of pop' since I've never seen that used outside the Beano. And there's nothing wrong with growing up reading it. I loved it.

Not sure why it would matter what he grew up reading to be honest, his point is if inflation continues and turns to hyper inflation that is the consequence of pumping fake money into the supply continuously then a loaf of bread could possibly cost a couple of hundred dollars or more, so at that point if that point came then there could be a chance of a single satoshi rising in value maybe not a dollar but definitely a rise but it will not make it worth anymore in reality..

Did you grow up reading the Beano?

People on this forum are too optimistic, do you think 1ug(1g=1000000ug) gold could become worth $1, obviously the answer is no, it's the same for Bitcoin.

Possible but quite unlikely. If Bitcoin were to replace all the fiat in the world in every single country, it would reach about $1 million per coin for a total market cap of about $21 trillion (actually it's slightly less than this due to some coins being lost over time). In that case, 1 satoshi would still only be worth 1 cent.

However, if this happens in the very distant future then it's possible that USD could lose 99 percent of its value due to simple inflation. If this happened, 1 USD by then would be worth 0.01 USD today. The dollar has already lost 96 percent of its value since 1913 so it's not impossible. So perhaps once Bitcoin is fully mined in the year 2140, 1 satoshi being worth 1 USD might be possible. Not that it really matters however since a coffee would cost you $300.

And finally, there is also the risk of hyperinflation. It happened in Germany. It happened in Hungary. It happened in Yugoslavia. And most recently, it happened in Zimbabwe. It could happen in the US too. This would have the same result as above although it would obviously happen much faster.

Additional note: If Bitcoin reached a status comparable to that of gold, then it would reach roughly $350,000. That would be a more realistic scenario.

We'll see what happens.

In time, when last BTC is mined, there will be less and less Bitcoins and more and more Dollars so figure out what can be in say 50-100 years. Bitcoin dont inflate, it deflate cause lot of coins are and will be lost so there will never be 21M of coins. Anything is possible. I dont see fiat monetary system as it is now can even survive 50-100 years.

The shortest to the point answer is the best i read here, nobody knows how much a single satoshi will be or could be worth in future but the funny thing is we all know but we have only decided for this point in time the future is when we will decide as buyers /the market what we believe it will be worth i have my doubts we will see that price though lol

As stated above, it could be divided further but odds are One Dollar will not buy what 10cents buy Today when 1satoshi=1Dollar

i am curious as to how one may discount it to todays value.
I think that there is a formula.
i tried to use Black-Sholes.
with 10 year time to maturity, 100% volatility (don't know how to precisely calculate this), spot price of 283 and strike price 100000 i am getting $93 value, which basically means that IF price will reach 100000 in 10 years, $93 of current $283 price is basically a call value on bitcoin value in 10 years.
However, if intrinsic price is ~$100 ( just electricity cost of mining), then ~$183 is option premium, corresponding to bitcoin price (strike) in 10 years at ~$6500
you can play with this here
http://www.danielsoper.com/fincalc/calc.aspx?id=37

Technically it's possible, but realistically isn't. 100K per Bitcoin isn't as farfetched tho, and considered a serious posibility by top hedge fund investors.

the market will decide!
exciting times ahead

Very true, it is amazing that many people truly believe that they have some wealth stored in their gold/land/bond and then they just sit on big pile of those assets and never cash out them. As we have seen, a slightest cash out of houses will crash the whole economy that is built upon it

And you are right that bitcoin is different, since you might never need to cash out it when the time comes, you just need to spend it, thus will not cause its value to fall (FED has proved that printing 5x more money will just make USD stronger)

That's pretty much every asset class out there though. You couldn't liquidate a fraction of the gold or stocks out there in the world without turning the value to dust.

That's why BTC will be an interesting case. It could be a hybrid of currency and asset class. I've no idea what that would do to the eventual value.

I have not thought about it clearly when I quote the formula, maybe the Q in the formula should not be the world GDP, but just a part of it, which consists only consumption by retirees (40% of the GDP?). As a retiree, you will never dump all your retirement funds at once unless in some extreme condition. And a retirement fund can use time lock mechanism to lock the coin until 20 years later. And the exchange rate will not jump to 100 million during one night but gradually over a long period of time

In fact, if invest in bitcoin now, you might not need to hold it for 20 years, 10 years are enough. And by then you retire, bitcoin will worth about 100K to 1 million, and you don't want to cash out everything since it still have large appreciation potential, you will only need to cash out enough to live a comfortable life, why cash out if you could not find any investment more valuable than bitcoin long term wise

And for people join the investment 10 years later, they will face a much higher exchange rate like Berkshire hathaway's stock, and they will invest in unit of satoshi instead of bitcoin, that appreciation potential still stands but eventually will slow down to the same speed that GDP grows

Hahaha my bad! I think my mind want to see it as 0.01$ but to correct it even 0.001$ is amazing too!!! 

Kind Regards,
BTC-Bank.

That's a funny way to look at it.  In principle you're right of course, but....

it would mean that the full world GDP would be bought with the very tiny amount of BTC that is NOT in saving funds.  After all, you have the difficulty that on one hand, all the BTC would be in funds which are frozen for 20 years, and on the other hand, all transactions happen in BTC (if you want the world GDP to be bought in BTC, in order for your formula to work).

It means that the world GDP is actually bought each year by a very very tiny fraction of all BTC while most of it remains enclosed in 20-year funds, which makes that the 72 trillion USD pump up the value of the BTC market cap to 1448 trillion. 
The danger would of course be that this high market cap would induce people to cash in their BTC, increasing V drastically, and make the value of a BTC drop at the same rate.

Imagine that you have your retirement savings in such a 20-year holding fund.  And imagine now that most people decide to empty their funds, and spend all of their BTC in a year's time (they could in principle buy 20 times the world GDP with it !).  That will crash the BTC value a 20-fold.  You loose your retirement savings a 20-fold.

I wouldn't want to have my savings in something that had its value because 95% of it is not liquid, and the full market is actually carried by the 5% circulating (like maybe right now with BTC !).  The moment people decide to put their stash in circulation, the value of it would crash 20-fold !


The problem with the relation between V and T (the holding times) is that V is the harmonic average of the inverse holding times, and not the arithmetic average.

As such, short holding times dominate over long holding times. 
If you have 90% of the monetary mass on 20-year hold, and 10% of the monetary mass in a 1-year hold, the average "hold" time (1/V) is NOT 0.9 x 20 + 0.1 x 1 = 18.1 year, but rather: 1/(0.9/20 + 0.1/1) = 6.9 years.  That 10% circulating once every year brings down the 20 year period to a 6.9 year period.  In other words, those 10% circulating 20 times faster, make the value drop by a factor of about 3.

So you see the huge danger of having the value of a monetary asset be dominated by extremely low V: the slightest fraction that starts circulating faster will make the value drop drastically.

I said $0.001.  Mr Mis-quoter