I still think we are in repetition of 2015-2018 because 2018-2021 is still very similar to 2015-2017 that it surprises me how similar they are. The current price and the struggle ($60k) is exactly the same as price back in 2017 ($3k which was similarly 3x the previous ATH) and from market behavior, whale manipulation and even FUD is the same too.
That means unless in the next 9 month something major changes we won't see a long bull market but instead another massive bubble (with same size as before reaching $500k) by the end of 2021 and a long bear market in 2022.
Topic: Could be in for a very long sustained bull market - page 2. (Read 293 times)
It is clear that institutions are not characterized by selling en masse at the first of FUD and neither are they characterized by compulsive buying due to FOMO. If we continue with relatively steady and spaced out buying by institutions, which is what it looks like, we may enter a supercycle, although it need not be as exaggerated as Dan Held predicts, with a price cap between $800k and $1M, but volatility has to slowly moderate.
I think it's possibly we might not even get a peak this year.
What exactly is a peak Price, Bitcoin has set and broke several ATHs this cycle, the most recent which is $60k+. That is far higher than the price targets most had for this cycle.Could be in for a very long sustained bull market?
A presumed stall in the flow of institutional money into Bitcoin is not enough indicator to predict that we have a more mature market now or that we would experience a much longer bull run. We are entering spaces of uncertainty, where Bitcoin users would not be able to judge current market action using previous events.
Thinking about recent price action, and that it seems institutional buying has slowed compared to Dec/Jan, I think it's possibly we might not even get a peak this year.
Grayscale has slowed down substantially, granted there are now more and cheaper paths to access bitcoin now as compared to end of 2020, but institutional buying does seem slower than a couple months ago. And I'm saying that is a good thing! Institutions are clearly continuing to come in, but they aren't FOMOing. And retail market is nowhere near mania FOMO levels either.
Institutions seem to get wary any time price jumps significantly, and probably feel more comfortable buying in when the price isn't hitting ATHs. Given that it seems we're getting a decent correction every month, the market overall seems to not want to allow parabolic runs to go too high and become unsustainable. Unsustainable parabolic moves is how we get blow-off tops and crashes. With a more mature investor coming into the market for the first time this cycle, it is definitely possible we don't get a huge blow-off top this year, but instead just a gradual grind up in price in a way that lasts far far longer.
This could be how a super cycle plays out - years of grinding up, with very regular corrections to keep price appreciating in a stable manner, and institutions gradually moving in more and more whenever they feel price hasn't gone up too much recently, and some of them taking a little off the table when they feel it has gone up too much, as compared to the past cycles of mass retail FOMO leading to huge blow-off tops and crashes and crypto winters.
Thoughts?
Grayscale has slowed down substantially, granted there are now more and cheaper paths to access bitcoin now as compared to end of 2020, but institutional buying does seem slower than a couple months ago. And I'm saying that is a good thing! Institutions are clearly continuing to come in, but they aren't FOMOing. And retail market is nowhere near mania FOMO levels either.
Institutions seem to get wary any time price jumps significantly, and probably feel more comfortable buying in when the price isn't hitting ATHs. Given that it seems we're getting a decent correction every month, the market overall seems to not want to allow parabolic runs to go too high and become unsustainable. Unsustainable parabolic moves is how we get blow-off tops and crashes. With a more mature investor coming into the market for the first time this cycle, it is definitely possible we don't get a huge blow-off top this year, but instead just a gradual grind up in price in a way that lasts far far longer.
This could be how a super cycle plays out - years of grinding up, with very regular corrections to keep price appreciating in a stable manner, and institutions gradually moving in more and more whenever they feel price hasn't gone up too much recently, and some of them taking a little off the table when they feel it has gone up too much, as compared to the past cycles of mass retail FOMO leading to huge blow-off tops and crashes and crypto winters.
Thoughts?
Naah, it looks less likely.
We just had a 1 day more than 10% drop on some vague "someone sent 1 bil to exchange" info.
It does not behave like a mature market. Maybe at $5 or 10 tril it will be one.
Thinking about recent price action, and that it seems institutional buying has slowed compared to Dec/Jan, I think it's possibly we might not even get a peak this year.
Grayscale has slowed down substantially, granted there are now more and cheaper paths to access bitcoin now as compared to end of 2020, but institutional buying does seem slower than a couple months ago. And I'm saying that is a good thing! Institutions are clearly continuing to come in, but they aren't FOMOing. And retail market is nowhere near mania FOMO levels either.
Institutions seem to get wary any time price jumps significantly, and probably feel more comfortable buying in when the price isn't hitting ATHs. Given that it seems we're getting a decent correction every month, the market overall seems to not want to allow parabolic runs to go too high and become unsustainable. Unsustainable parabolic moves is how we get blow-off tops and crashes. With a more mature investor coming into the market for the first time this cycle, it is definitely possible we don't get a huge blow-off top this year, but instead just a gradual grind up in price in a way that lasts far far longer.
This could be how a super cycle plays out - years of grinding up, with very regular corrections to keep price appreciating in a stable manner, and institutions gradually moving in more and more whenever they feel price hasn't gone up too much recently, and some of them taking a little off the table when they feel it has gone up too much, as compared to the past cycles of mass retail FOMO leading to huge blow-off tops and crashes and crypto winters.
Thoughts?
Grayscale has slowed down substantially, granted there are now more and cheaper paths to access bitcoin now as compared to end of 2020, but institutional buying does seem slower than a couple months ago. And I'm saying that is a good thing! Institutions are clearly continuing to come in, but they aren't FOMOing. And retail market is nowhere near mania FOMO levels either.
Institutions seem to get wary any time price jumps significantly, and probably feel more comfortable buying in when the price isn't hitting ATHs. Given that it seems we're getting a decent correction every month, the market overall seems to not want to allow parabolic runs to go too high and become unsustainable. Unsustainable parabolic moves is how we get blow-off tops and crashes. With a more mature investor coming into the market for the first time this cycle, it is definitely possible we don't get a huge blow-off top this year, but instead just a gradual grind up in price in a way that lasts far far longer.
This could be how a super cycle plays out - years of grinding up, with very regular corrections to keep price appreciating in a stable manner, and institutions gradually moving in more and more whenever they feel price hasn't gone up too much recently, and some of them taking a little off the table when they feel it has gone up too much, as compared to the past cycles of mass retail FOMO leading to huge blow-off tops and crashes and crypto winters.
Thoughts?
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