I'm sure this time Bitcoin's halving will still be able to print ATH.
Your analysis is a new angle to look at the coming halving next year, since almost all the bitcoin have been minted then we'll likely not see the impact of ATH. But from the excitement about the halving, I believe that even if the halving does not reach it's full potential, the anticipation of it can still make us to see a new height of ATH, because I believe that the crypto market has structured itself to hit massive bull run after every halving. Although this will be my first halving experience since i got involved in bitcoin, I'm eagerly looking forward to how the event of halving will trigger the ATH. Despite bitcoin, not been 100% predictable, due to it's volatility, I'm still hopeful that we'll have a massive bull run, because the indicators are there, we're expecting the much talked about ETF, I'm positive that if it happens, then it'll aid the bull run, because demand for bitcoin will increase.
The charm of halving will remain eternal in Bitcoin, but the influence on price increases will experience differences from the first halving onwards. We can observe this if we observe the graph of Bitcoin's price increase after the halving, there is a decrease in the percentage increase in price, but Bitcoin is able to print a new ATH with each increase. The saturation point will also have an effect over time, triggering a stable response when a price halving occurs, this applies to every chart.
Maybe it's a big event or milestone like an ETF, a network upgrade to make it better, mass adoption or other factors besides halving that can move prices. I just think it's more different to look for an angle in looking at Bitcoin prices from several influences.