Very interesting article. I have a question.
You say that atomic swaps with adaptor signatures are better than centralized BTC mixers. Then what's the point of using BTC mixers anymore?
As @findingnemo already wrote, atomic swaps are an exchange technology, not a mixing technology.
However, I think they could even be used on the Bitcoin blockchain alone to mix coins without having to go through an altcoin. I only still haven't seen a "platform" for that.
Basically, an atomic swap connects two sets of 2 transactions by a secret known only to the participants. It's an HTLC, very similar to those used in Lightning. So I technically don't see a problem to build a platform for BTC <-> BTC atomic swaps. However, the factor time may it make more convenient, above all for criminals, to go through some blockchain with lower block intervals, so they can make several transactions there and hide their traces even more.
I think that BTC mixers have become obsolete, since there are better alternatives, so it doesn't matter if they are going to be banned or not.
Atomic swaps have two shortcomings regarding centralized mixers: 1) they can be canceled by one of the parties and 2) they take more time due to the timelocks involved (normally a few hours if Bitcoin is involved, in the case of altcoin-altcoin swaps 15-60 minutes depending on the block times).
So, in the current situation where atomic swaps have low liquidity, it would take a long time to mix especially large quantities of funds, because you must find an exchange partner, then hope that this partner does not cancel, and if he cancels, then do the whole process again. So for large amounts you would take several hours. But: Once you're through, you are almost undetectable (with the exception that your exchange partner heard something about illict origin of your funds, but that is very unlikely, and to be sure you can do one swap more).
Basically it's a virtuous cycle: once the liquidity grows on atomic swaps, more traders will be available, and that not only increases the anonymity set, but also the chance to mix funds fastly. But we're still not there.
It's also not sure if atomic swaps can be made as easy to use as a current centralized mixer. I guess it is technically possible, but current platforms aren't that easy to use.
This is not about preventing money laundering, that is just an excuse to attack Bitcoin. This is about control of the money.
In general I agree. I don't think that all governments of major countries are totally against Bitcoin, but in many ruling parties there are large anti-crypto movements, and of course these sectors try to convince the governments to use the excuse of crime to tighten regulation further.
Supply and demand, as usual. It's so easy to operate a site like this, what would stop people to create new ones once others have been shut down. I don't think they fear the FBI or other organisations that taking a stand against them.
Of course it's relatively easy to build a mixer, but if the crackdown deepens, it will become more difficult for them to 1) find a provider for the website, 2) find a domain, 3) advertise the service, 4) take all the legal risk to be online for a couple of months. Of course you could say that these are simply cost factors and they could take higher fees, but that will make decentralized methods with atomic swaps and CoinJoins becoming more attractive.