Topic: CRASH?! (not) For all the 'nay sayers' (Read 4666 times)
There's no price it has to hit to not be a bubble. But if Bitcoin stays at the same price more or less for, say, three months, I'll declare it "not a bubble".
There is proven history (Tulip mania) that i can reach at least $ 500 000 per bitcoin (10 years of annual wage for bob the builder) There is no reason that that figure can not be surpassed tenfold or more.
I've seen this tulip bubble equivalence around a lot... A big contributor to it was the fact that the government at the time allowed people to void any contracts they made for a fee, so people could freely make very risky transactions without much actual risk 
ITT: People who make grand assumptions about what other people do with their bitcoins.
Like "greedy speculators" and "newcomers" and "old timers" and "hoarders" and "spenders"
The 5000th thread just like this... gets old. Why don't you look around and see what people are actually doing with their bitcoins.....
There are people with 500000000 USDs just sitting around. Hoarding. Yet the USD is used for millions of purchases every single day. How could a currency with OMGHOARDERS actually let people OMGSPEND? OMG did I just make MaTachi's BRAIN explode? Lol. Can a quasi-commodity function simultaneously as an exchange of value and a store of value? That functionality isn't just limited to fiat.
Next thing you know we're going to start talking about the big 1%er bitcoiners fleecing the 99%er new adopters with their greedy speculations. Did the Occupy Wall St crowd just join BitCoinTalk when they heard about the latest rally?
Whatever. Carry on... BTW I just saw a bug in your dreads, might want to take care of that...
Like "greedy speculators" and "newcomers" and "old timers" and "hoarders" and "spenders"
The 5000th thread just like this... gets old. Why don't you look around and see what people are actually doing with their bitcoins.....
There are people with 500000000 USDs just sitting around. Hoarding. Yet the USD is used for millions of purchases every single day. How could a currency with OMGHOARDERS actually let people OMGSPEND? OMG did I just make MaTachi's BRAIN explode? Lol. Can a quasi-commodity function simultaneously as an exchange of value and a store of value? That functionality isn't just limited to fiat.
Next thing you know we're going to start talking about the big 1%er bitcoiners fleecing the 99%er new adopters with their greedy speculations. Did the Occupy Wall St crowd just join BitCoinTalk when they heard about the latest rally?
Whatever. Carry on... BTW I just saw a bug in your dreads, might want to take care of that...
I do not believe a crash will happen anytime soon. From the market data it appears there is substantial demand and flash crashes are not causing panic selling on a large scale. The small dips are leading to alot of bids, or people trying to get a discount to short term average.
There is a demand from the hoarders. The value bitcoin once had is more or less gone. It has turned into roller coaster for greedy speculators. When they realize that their imaginary, digital numbers isn't worth anything than for trading I predict it will crash.This. Early adopters fleecing late adopters, creating volatility and undermining the bitcoin economy.
For a full on crash to happen, EVERY speculator would want to dump all at the same time. There'd have to be a specific reason for this. Like major exchanges getting hacked, or a difficulty spike prevents blocks from being made... as it stands now, a flash crash down to 25 or even 50% would be bought back up by additional speculators easily. You couldn't even call a 50% dip a crash right now, hoarders won't be phased by it and will continue hoarding. The only thing that can create enough of a panic to crash the price is news of a fundamental or potential flaw in bitcoin.
The 0.8.1 required upgrade coming in May could possibly have a bug that would cause this. That's where I'd put my money on the first sign of a crash happening.
It's enough with a few people starting to sell. When the rest see that the price is dipping they will get uneasy, considering all the money they put into the system. Then will not much be needed for a panic to break loose. The 0.8.1 required upgrade coming in May could possibly have a bug that would cause this. That's where I'd put my money on the first sign of a crash happening.
For a full on crash to happen, EVERY speculator would want to dump all at the same time. There'd have to be a specific reason for this. Like major exchanges getting hacked, or a difficulty spike prevents blocks from being made... as it stands now, a flash crash down to 25 or even 50% would be bought back up by additional speculators easily. You couldn't even call a 50% dip a crash right now, hoarders won't be phased by it and will continue hoarding. The only thing that can create enough of a panic to crash the price is news of a fundamental or potential flaw in bitcoin.
The 0.8.1 required upgrade coming in May could possibly have a bug that would cause this. That's where I'd put my money on the first sign of a crash happening.
The 0.8.1 required upgrade coming in May could possibly have a bug that would cause this. That's where I'd put my money on the first sign of a crash happening.
I do not believe a crash will happen anytime soon. From the market data it appears there is substantial demand and flash crashes are not causing panic selling on a large scale. The small dips are leading to alot of bids, or people trying to get a discount to short term average.
There is a demand from the hoarders. The value bitcoin once had is more or less gone. It has turned into roller coaster for greedy speculators. When they realize that their imaginary, digital numbers isn't worth anything than for trading I predict it will crash.This. Early adopters fleecing late adopters, creating volatility and undermining the bitcoin economy.
I do not believe a crash will happen anytime soon. From the market data it appears there is substantial demand and flash crashes are not causing panic selling on a large scale. The small dips are leading to alot of bids, or people trying to get a discount to short term average.
There is a demand from the hoarders. The value bitcoin once had is more or less gone. It has turned into roller coaster for greedy speculators. When they realize that their imaginary, digital numbers isn't worth anything than for trading I predict it will crash. 
I do not believe a crash will happen anytime soon. From the market data it appears there is substantial demand and flash crashes are not causing panic selling on a large scale. The small dips are leading to alot of bids, or people trying to get a discount to short term average.
Price doesnt matter, volatility matters, and in those terms bitcoin is doing worse than ever before.
Somebody should compile something like ^VIX for BTC. Would be interesting measure. Price doesnt matter, volatility matters, and in those terms bitcoin is doing worse than ever before.
What do you mean? It's undervalued and hasn't reached its potential. Barely any sites take bitcoins today - so imagine its complete future potential! Of course it will have a incredibly high growth rate considering the huge adoption rate, therefore bitcoin is doing better than ever.
Price doesnt matter, volatility matters, and in those terms bitcoin is doing worse than ever before.
There are several separate things going on here.
1. Mt Gox has a backlog in the thousands. That will drive new money in for a while. All the press attention and negative market news elsewhere helps significantly, and may continue to help for a long while to come.
1. Mt Gox has a backlog in the thousands. That will drive new money in for a while. All the press attention and negative market news elsewhere helps significantly, and may continue to help for a long while to come.
I keep hearing this one but I think the backlog is what we in the start up industry call a "vanity metric". Sure it might be an indicator, but until people buy their coin, it doesn't guarantee anything.
When I got approved I didn't transfer a significant amount of FIAT straight away and watched the market closely before buying any coin. I started small and once I had some confidence, I made a bigger move. This was back in the days of $50 per coin and even then rapid rises scared the hell out of me. I wonder how I'd have felt about trying to buy in today given the exponential growth?
@jerkoff - totally agree with you regarding the exchanges.
When do you think we'll see BTC trading on EBS?
When do you think we'll see BTC trading on EBS?
There are several separate things going on here.
1. Mt Gox has a backlog in the thousands. That will drive new money in for a while. All the press attention and negative market news elsewhere helps significantly, and may continue to help for a long while to come.
1. Mt Gox has a backlog in the thousands. That will drive new money in for a while. All the press attention and negative market news elsewhere helps significantly, and may continue to help for a long while to come.
Not many people seem to be considering that Mt Gox's AML queue may also consist of miners waiting to cash out, imagine a small time miner who sells small amounts occasionally which means they've never had to think about the AML verification before and haven't set it up. The way things are looking now they are in a position to take their family on a nice holiday or pay off some student debt, whatever, without massively denting their holdings. Cashing out through an exchange would be a safe, legal option to raise the funds, which means joining the AML verification queue.....
The exchanges are risky since they're custom build amateur attempts, based purely on demand and supply provided by customers, without a marketmaker backing up
A few days ago someone sold 50 coins for euro on BTC-E, when there was less present in the total book. As a result it sweeped empty the total buy book, resulting in most of the coins being sold for 3 euro when the current price was 120 euro.
http://f.cl.ly/items/3d1c1V2E130E3C1M2H3A/Schermafbeelding%202013-04-08%20om%2001.28.10.png
Such things happen when amateurs program something from a programming perspective. Real exchanges would trigger a trading stop, pausing trades for 15 minutes after such a large price shift or deny trades that are outside a certain price range. But of course all mistakes and solutions that the real financial market have encountered the last 50 years have not yet reached these amateur exchanges, it's like starting all over in the 19th century.
Trading without market makers with only customers doing the trading is extremely risky. One network outage where the buy side of the book gets depleted and they will just lower the price to whatever is still in the book, even if that's a buy order for $0.01, and execute those out of bounds trades anyway.
A few days ago someone sold 50 coins for euro on BTC-E, when there was less present in the total book. As a result it sweeped empty the total buy book, resulting in most of the coins being sold for 3 euro when the current price was 120 euro.
http://f.cl.ly/items/3d1c1V2E130E3C1M2H3A/Schermafbeelding%202013-04-08%20om%2001.28.10.png
Such things happen when amateurs program something from a programming perspective. Real exchanges would trigger a trading stop, pausing trades for 15 minutes after such a large price shift or deny trades that are outside a certain price range. But of course all mistakes and solutions that the real financial market have encountered the last 50 years have not yet reached these amateur exchanges, it's like starting all over in the 19th century.
Trading without market makers with only customers doing the trading is extremely risky. One network outage where the buy side of the book gets depleted and they will just lower the price to whatever is still in the book, even if that's a buy order for $0.01, and execute those out of bounds trades anyway.
http://konradsgraf.squarespace.com/blog1/2013/4/6/hyper-monetization-questioning-the-bitcoin-bubble-bubble.html
Lol when people comment on ZeroHedge bitcoin articles and say "lol... tulip mania, anyone?" AS IF every single price rise on everything in history has the exact same fundamentals as a tulip and can be compared and then used to extrapolate similar results from historical events.
The current rise in bitcoin price can EASILY be justified if you
(1) Take some time to study the fundamentals and how bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies and non-fiat stores and exchanges of value) works + it's many applications (and I mean REALLY study)
(2) Pay attention to what's going on around you... no, not the "official" inflation rates and Obama telling us we're in a recovery... look around the corner. Pay attention to the savings confiscation legislation slowly being introduced around the world, various manipulations of various markets, massive corruption in the fiat banking cartels and governments, alternative statistics from real economists rather than government shills...
There is not a doubt in my mind that cryptocurrencies are here to stay and if you think this is a bubble and Bitcoin will go back to $40 and sit quietly by the wayside for the next 25 years, you are deluding yourself. Wake up, kick the shepherd, leave your pasture, and become a world citizen.
Lol when people comment on ZeroHedge bitcoin articles and say "lol... tulip mania, anyone?" AS IF every single price rise on everything in history has the exact same fundamentals as a tulip and can be compared and then used to extrapolate similar results from historical events.
The current rise in bitcoin price can EASILY be justified if you
(1) Take some time to study the fundamentals and how bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies and non-fiat stores and exchanges of value) works + it's many applications (and I mean REALLY study)
(2) Pay attention to what's going on around you... no, not the "official" inflation rates and Obama telling us we're in a recovery... look around the corner. Pay attention to the savings confiscation legislation slowly being introduced around the world, various manipulations of various markets, massive corruption in the fiat banking cartels and governments, alternative statistics from real economists rather than government shills...
There is not a doubt in my mind that cryptocurrencies are here to stay and if you think this is a bubble and Bitcoin will go back to $40 and sit quietly by the wayside for the next 25 years, you are deluding yourself. Wake up, kick the shepherd, leave your pasture, and become a world citizen.
There are several separate things going on here.
1. Mt Gox has a backlog in the thousands. That will drive new money in for a while. All the press attention and negative market news elsewhere helps significantly, and may continue to help for a long while to come.
2. If you sit and watch one of the exchanges that has an open book, you can see that the price has support levels etc, just like a stock market. Implication is that the current price is a trade, like any other. Just let your winners run, and be prepared to back out if that ever changes.
3. Overall adoption level and transaction rate is going up. That - over time - makes the market more robust. That doesn't imply any specific price (as many others here have said), but it does mean that long term prospects for BTC are probably good.
4. Hypothetical economics stuff (deflationary, bad bad fiat currency, etc etc) - all nice on paper. Everyone has strong opinions. We'll see if any of them work out.
1. Mt Gox has a backlog in the thousands. That will drive new money in for a while. All the press attention and negative market news elsewhere helps significantly, and may continue to help for a long while to come.
2. If you sit and watch one of the exchanges that has an open book, you can see that the price has support levels etc, just like a stock market. Implication is that the current price is a trade, like any other. Just let your winners run, and be prepared to back out if that ever changes.
3. Overall adoption level and transaction rate is going up. That - over time - makes the market more robust. That doesn't imply any specific price (as many others here have said), but it does mean that long term prospects for BTC are probably good.
4. Hypothetical economics stuff (deflationary, bad bad fiat currency, etc etc) - all nice on paper. Everyone has strong opinions. We'll see if any of them work out.
Interesting chart: http://oi48.tinypic.com/2e0plop.jpg
What do you want to say with that? That is rising and is getting adopted incredibly fast? 
Interesting chart: http://oi48.tinypic.com/2e0plop.jpg
There is proven history (Tulip mania) that i can reach at least $ 500 000 per bitcoin (10 years of annual wage for bob the builder) There is no reason that that figure can not be surpassed tenfold or more.
Of course you'd have to realise that in 16th century Holland tulips were traded by rich businessmen (merchants) and 90% of the population were peasants and paupers whose wage was the bare minimum to buy food and not die from starvation, while a merchant would easily make 1000 times the average wage from trade.
And there are plenty of reasons, it's just that bubble fanatics get blinded to any risks or bad news and become unrealistically optimistic. Although tenfold of $500.000 is by far the most outrageous claim I've seen so far.
It's like 2000 all over again "hey, pets.com/worldcom/infospace has gone from $2 to $100 in just months, if I put all my life savings in it I'll be a millionaire when it reaches $5000."
Of course they all failed or lost huge value. Take http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inktomi whose shares went up, split a few times, and reached $241 per share for a market cap of $35 billion in 2000. In 2002 it was bailed out by yahoo for $235 million, or $1.63 per share, less than a percent of its peak value.
But even if almost everyone knew $35 billion for a midsize company was too much, there were still many people that said "hey $220 per share, if it goes to $8000 I'm rich" and put their savings in it.
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