Don't take this as a recommendation but there seem to be some indications that the bottom might have been made, contrary to my expectations that bitcoin could go to 2000 (see OP and other posts). I don't think that bitcoin is going to go up seriously during 2019, but perhaps it will start a painful recovery that will take more than one year to go back to 10,000. It was something like this that happened in the past every time we had a major crash.
I still expect a fall to at least 3930 perhaps even 3600, but the risk/reward might worth taking a small position with a long term perspective, at least at those values. In order to increase it as the price breaks 4250 and then 4500.
As usual don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.
Topic: Crashing' Bitcoin Predictions - page 2. (Read 660 times)
I think you are some how a bit right in your predictions. Cryptocoins market is volatile market and few that has been following the market understand to some extent and to be right in our predictions is a hard thing to do. I think bitcoin might go as low as around $2700 if care is not taking because the buying power is still very low. Traders are looking for any little opportunity to dump and that is why the market is currently stagnant.
The long term ascending line shown on my OP graphic, now passing on about 2100 is still a very strong possibility. There is however a second ascending line passing now at about 2430 that might also be a long term support.
I find trend lines to be unreliable S/R; I really only look at horizontal levels and moving averages. A short-lived dump into the $2,000s is very possible, and probably even likely. But I don't think there are any real price supports there, so it's anyone's guess where the exact bottom might be. I'm just operating under the assumption that just like 2015, any dumps below the 200-week MA will get bought back up.
The long term ascending line shown on my OP graphic, now passing on about 2100 is still a very strong possibility. There is however a second ascending line passing now at about 2430 that might also be a long term support.
Buying at current value is a very risky business. The trend is still bearish. Fight it at your risk.
But don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.
Buying at current value is a very risky business. The trend is still bearish. Fight it at your risk.
But don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.
Probably the market will make a three day green candle, since bitcoin was oversold.
But this seem to be a short-term movement. An opportunity to close long positions. Because after we'll have more down.
The trend is bearish, don't fight the trend by buying because you thinking the prices are very cheap. A price only is cheap when it's about to go up, but this doesn't seem to be the case.
But this seem to be a short-term movement. An opportunity to close long positions. Because after we'll have more down.
The trend is bearish, don't fight the trend by buying because you thinking the prices are very cheap. A price only is cheap when it's about to go up, but this doesn't seem to be the case.
Bitcoin breached two ascending support lines and barely managed to keep above a descending support line, after actually breaching it (it's passing at about 4500 usds).
It's on free falling and the probability to reach about 2000 usds on the next months increased a lot. There is an ascending support line on the weekly charter passing 754-890 and currently on 1888 that should offer a support.
If this line can't hold long term, the next one is passing below 1000, now at about 650!
A long term buy at about 2000 might be a good move, but not with all your capital, because if it stands, the price will be around this value for months, before slowly going up.
But a flash crash below this line for a quick drop to the next support line now at 650 can't be ruled out.
At least, this is the story that past major crashes tell us.
But don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.
It's on free falling and the probability to reach about 2000 usds on the next months increased a lot. There is an ascending support line on the weekly charter passing 754-890 and currently on 1888 that should offer a support.
If this line can't hold long term, the next one is passing below 1000, now at about 650!
A long term buy at about 2000 might be a good move, but not with all your capital, because if it stands, the price will be around this value for months, before slowly going up.
But a flash crash below this line for a quick drop to the next support line now at 650 can't be ruled out.
At least, this is the story that past major crashes tell us.
But don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.
[snip]
Check the line on this weekly graphic which connects the 5403 usd on 5 november to 5876 on 14 august. I'm betting this support line passing today on about 6000 is going to be breached and we are going to about 5700, the other support line connecting the 6000 low on 5 February and the 5755 low on 25 June.
If this is broken we have the other long term support line on 5526. This should hold or bounce back for a good trade.
If this long term line is breached all hell will break loose. Slowly, for many months, we might end up on the lower very long term support line now on 1700, but that probably will be above 2000 when reached. Might...
But don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.
I agree with you when you said you don't recommend the prediction because the market price movement is not certain. However, I also presume some dip in price before the end of this year but I don't actually the price range but I'm certain it will be deeper than the previous dump in price.Check the line on this weekly graphic which connects the 5403 usd on 5 november to 5876 on 14 august. I'm betting this support line passing today on about 6000 is going to be breached and we are going to about 5700, the other support line connecting the 6000 low on 5 February and the 5755 low on 25 June.
If this is broken we have the other long term support line on 5526. This should hold or bounce back for a good trade.
If this long term line is breached all hell will break loose. Slowly, for many months, we might end up on the lower very long term support line now on 1700, but that probably will be above 2000 when reached. Might...
But don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.
I must confess I am quite surprised that the support around $5800 has been that strong. Like you I was expecting the price to go below that yesterday or today... That's why Bitcoin and crypto currencies in general are still very hard to predict...
There is nothing to be surprised about, so far, it is serving as a major support and it has bounced off it for some time, but that does not mean we could still not break it eventually. Every market is hard to predict and that is the reason they are markets anyway and the only thing we can do is to accustom ourselves to the trend and time, but the volatility that some are complaining about is the volatility that some are really enjoying greatly. It is just as simple as that.There is no point in fearing these kind of doomsday predictions, especially based on technical indicators. I would happily accumulate more bitcoins at those levels. If you have belief in the long-term outlook, there is no reason to get scared.
It is another matter that I do not have faith in technical analysis...
Those who fear them are certainly those who never get to understand the reason for their investment in the first place or will I say got the wrong understanding since all they care about is getting rich as the media painted it throughout last year. There will always be crashing predictions during a bear trend and it was obvious we will enter this corrective state, but certainly last year, even if you tell people to be careful, they will say you are generating FUD.It is another matter that I do not have faith in technical analysis...
That's my fear, that the price of $5800 gets broken (down) eventually. I have being watching the price for a while now, we have been touching the price a few times already and everytime the bounces (up) were less and less impressive. Hope I am wrong.
There are low odds. But if bitcoin goes below $ 3,000, all people compete with each other to get bitcoin. So in summary, this situation continues for a very short time. prices go back to where they started.
This price prediction is impossible in future because most least value is 5k USD so bitcoin will never come back to 3k USD. This year altcoins are crashing because last year segwit2x was lanched so that time network was too busy so Bitcoin was crashing and all other altcoins are growing. But this year everything will be change so Bitcoin will going to moon. I must confess I am quite surprised that the support around $5800 has been that strong. Like you I was expecting the price to go below that yesterday or today... That's why Bitcoin and crypto currencies in general are still very hard to predict...
There is nothing to be surprised about, so far, it is serving as a major support and it has bounced off it for some time, but that does not mean we could still not break it eventually. Every market is hard to predict and that is the reason they are markets anyway and the only thing we can do is to accustom ourselves to the trend and time, but the volatility that some are complaining about is the volatility that some are really enjoying greatly. It is just as simple as that.There is no point in fearing these kind of doomsday predictions, especially based on technical indicators. I would happily accumulate more bitcoins at those levels. If you have belief in the long-term outlook, there is no reason to get scared.
It is another matter that I do not have faith in technical analysis...
Those who fear them are certainly those who never get to understand the reason for their investment in the first place or will I say got the wrong understanding since all they care about is getting rich as the media painted it throughout last year. There will always be crashing predictions during a bear trend and it was obvious we will enter this corrective state, but certainly last year, even if you tell people to be careful, they will say you are generating FUD. It is another matter that I do not have faith in technical analysis...
There are low odds. But if bitcoin goes below $ 3,000, all people compete with each other to get bitcoin. So in summary, this situation continues for a very short time. prices go back to where they started.
OP, I am with you on the success of your on your "long term to $1700" prediction. Because like you, I also want to buy some cheap Bitcoins. 
Never stop and never surrender, if you pray hard enough, your wish might become true. Hahaha.
Never stop and never surrender, if you pray hard enough, your wish might become true. Hahaha.
There is no point in fearing these kind of doomsday predictions, especially based on technical indicators. I would happily accumulate more bitcoins at those levels. If you have belief in the long-term outlook, there is no reason to get scared.
It is another matter that I do not have faith in technical analysis...
If you do not have faith in TA, then you will be lost as a trader, because without it you are definitely not going to be able to make anything out of it. I have been using TA for a long time, and even in stocks and Forex market, they fail sometimes, but really, TA are not meant to give you certainty that the market is going in a particular direction, but they are just there to guide into a strategy you can use to play with the market fluctuations, which mean you will beating yourself up as a trader, if you are expecting 100% successful trades every time. If it is that way, there won't be need for stop loss. It is another matter that I do not have faith in technical analysis...
There are holders who hate bearish people like currently I am. Somehow they think people who post negative things about the price want to influence the price. This is a very stupid thing to think. The market is huge and is moved by thousands of traders. Any post from anyone on bitcointalk won't ever influence the price.
Another reason for hate from holders is that some posts increase their anxiety about being wrong. About this I can't do nothing: hate on.
A last reason is about thinking that a bearish person is someone who is glad with bitcoin going down. Who don't care if this hurts bitcoin and moves people away from it. They think bearish people are bitcoin haters. Far from that: this is about facts and reasons, not about desires and emotions. I'm not glad or willing to see bitcoin's price going down. But our desires and emotions are irrelevant.
Holders who hate bearish people ? You think real holders who understand the technology, the future and the benefit and understand the risk with volatility will be worried about where the market wants to drive to? A serious holder will care less and even buy the dips if need be.Another reason for hate from holders is that some posts increase their anxiety about being wrong. About this I can't do nothing: hate on.
A last reason is about thinking that a bearish person is someone who is glad with bitcoin going down. Who don't care if this hurts bitcoin and moves people away from it. They think bearish people are bitcoin haters. Far from that: this is about facts and reasons, not about desires and emotions. I'm not glad or willing to see bitcoin's price going down. But our desires and emotions are irrelevant.
Nevertheless, the OP is just stating his own opinion. That does not mean his opinion will have to count in the long run, as future is unpredictable, but whichever way, you should also understand that the market sure have more room to go lower, and how you view that as an opportunity or problem is where the problem is.
There is no point in fearing these kind of doomsday predictions, especially based on technical indicators. I would happily accumulate more bitcoins at those levels. If you have belief in the long-term outlook, there is no reason to get scared.
It is another matter that I do not have faith in technical analysis...
It is another matter that I do not have faith in technical analysis...
There's really no point talking about trends until we break this sideways range.
The only question is when will we see the sideway range break? I do hope that this uneventful market would not last that long. Uneventful market such as this is not that profitable at all.I suspect this is going to be a very long bear market with some real panic moments more. But as the time frame gets longer, predictions are even less certain.
With the way things are going now, I am sure that this bear market would not that long because even if it is uneventful, there are a lot of upcoming events that might set a new momentum for a bullish market.
I must confess I am quite surprised that the support around $5800 has been that strong. Like you I was expecting the price to go below that yesterday or today... That's why Bitcoin and crypto currencies in general are still very hard to predict...
Traditional financial markets (stocks) are a totally different world from my humble experience. It is necessary to analyze the results of the company + consider complex financial and economic notions.
From my experience (I have been into stock markets since 2011) I prefer the crypto market: volatility / no financial analysis, only technical analysis.
Traditional financial markets (stocks) are a totally different world from my humble experience. It is necessary to analyze the results of the company + consider complex financial and economic notions.
From my experience (I have been into stock markets since 2011) I prefer the crypto market: volatility / no financial analysis, only technical analysis.
[snip]
Check the line on this weekly graphic which connects the 5403 usd on 5 november to 5876 on 14 august. I'm betting this support line passing today on about 6000 is going to be breached and we are going to about 5700, the other support line connecting the 6000 low on 5 February and the 5755 low on 25 June.
If this is broken we have the other long term support line on 5526. This should hold or bounce back for a good trade.
If this long term line is breached all hell will break loose. Slowly, for many months, we might end up on the lower very long term support line now on 1700, but that probably will be above 2000 when reached. Might...
But don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.
I agree with you when you said you don't recommend the prediction because the market price movement is not certain. However, I also presume some dip in price before the end of this year but I don't actually the price range but I'm certain it will be deeper than the previous dump in price.Check the line on this weekly graphic which connects the 5403 usd on 5 november to 5876 on 14 august. I'm betting this support line passing today on about 6000 is going to be breached and we are going to about 5700, the other support line connecting the 6000 low on 5 February and the 5755 low on 25 June.
If this is broken we have the other long term support line on 5526. This should hold or bounce back for a good trade.
If this long term line is breached all hell will break loose. Slowly, for many months, we might end up on the lower very long term support line now on 1700, but that probably will be above 2000 when reached. Might...
But don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.
Remember the top at about 1140 on 2013? We had a bear market of more than 2 years next, then a painful recovery during 2017, before we were able to make a new higher high. In between we saw real blood on the market with panic deeps. I suspect this is going to be a very long bear market with some real panic moments more. But as the time frame gets longer, predictions are even less certain.
Don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.
no, you can not come up with any predictions at this point. filling it with ifs and butts and mights is not going to change that. you are making a guess not a prediction. at this point we are at the bottom for a long time, there is no trend, neither bear nor bull because there haven't been any drops or rises for a couple of months now and drawing lines on the chart is not going to change that!
we are currently in an stable/sideways trend where price is going up AND down and day traders are enjoying the short term profits while everyone else is waiting on the sidelines to see what will happen before jumping in.
we are currently in an stable/sideways trend where price is going up AND down and day traders are enjoying the short term profits while everyone else is waiting on the sidelines to see what will happen before jumping in.
Day traders can only earn profits if they can make correct predictions. Flipping a coin or just guessing without support on graphics is a recipe for disaster. But I will always be humble when trading bitcoin and add a might. It's about probabilities and not certainties.
The trend is bearish. Don't fight the trend.
Don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.
Don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.
I learned to stop fighting the trend years ago. And since we haven't broken out of the succession of lower highs and lower lows yet, I'd agree that we haven't technically broken the downtrend.
But you'd have to agree, there's no bear momentum anymore. We've gone sideways for months now. Late shorts have got to be sweating just as much as bagholding bulls. There's really no point talking about trends until we break this sideways range.
We are in agreement about the value of the trend. But I still think we are on a bearish trend. We are making lower highs and I'm still standing behind my prediction: about 5960 on the next week. They can even trick us and make a new lower low, even if I'm not betting on it. I'm expecting a nice bounce around 5960.
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