Topic: Crucial support leven broken at $88, but there's still no fear to be seen (Read 1686 times)

I dumped at least 600 Bitcoin straight through the $88 trendline when it looked like it might not break.

The bulls should have defended it better. LOL

Probably my mistake in phrasing it ambiguously: those 2 hypothetical events weren't meant to be likely, or even plausible events that are going to drive up the price, but they were meant to illustrate what order of magnitude the event that ends the deflation would need to have, from "world-changing big" (the amazon case), or just "pretty big" (in the Google example). As far as actually possible scenarios go, yours are obviously much better.

Very good points. My position is that different bubble phases are just a description of recurrent market psychology, and BTC is not different in that sense.

Of course I agree with your final assumption - if a "big enough event" happens, price will just raise from that moment. But IMO a "big enough event" is not yet to be seen on the short term horizon. I would discard amazon.com switching to BTC (I cannot imagine Paypal supporting a "Paypal killer"), and I don't see  Google play accepting BTC. I think its much more likely that in the mid term (+6 months) big wall street players launch BTC trusts and other derivatives "a la Winklevoss", which would trigger bigger adoption between mainstream speculators.

I also think it is more likely for a big wall street player to buy MtGox or just to create its own BTC exchange, than Amazon or Google embracing BTC. These two companies like to be "in control" and like to "centralize", thus Bitcoin is kinda a dead end for both, despite of what their CEOs might say publicly.

I'm not really going to disagree with the practical conclusion of your argument -- I think it's very much possible prices will drop another 50%, and then maybe another time. But I do disagree with the rationale behind your argument, the one that you (and many others here) have been posting a number of times. I'll try to explain what I mean...

I'm sure there are loads of "bulls in denial". But I don't think they are the major force that keeps the price relatively high ("relatively high" in the sense that you mentioned yourself: that the correction you hope for doesn't happen fast enough).

My own explanation is slightly different: I don't believe in the absolute necessity of a "natural" deflation of a bubble, as an event completely independent of external factors. So I think the reason why the correction/deflation is proceeding relatively slowly is not because of bullish delusion (at least not if the word "bullish" is supposed to carry any real meaning, and not just intended to mean "not completely pessimistic about the prospects of bitcoin"), but because of the largest part of investors in bitcoin not being quite sure where we are in the bitcoin adoption event, and as a result taking a "conservative" approach of deflating the former high, but only slowly.

Not sure if I made my point very clear, but what I'm saying is: price will continue to go down if nothing happens, simply because the market will take it as a sign that we're still in a very early stage of the adoption event. But I also believe that (a) there is no deep psychological motivation to let the bubble "deflate all the way before we can go up again". If there is a big enough event that signals we are further into the adoption than previously thought, the price will appreciate from whereever we are at the moment. And, (b), that what constitutes a "big enough event" to signal that is rather unclear. Could be that it needs to be of the size of amazon.com switching to btc entirely, could be that it's enough that google play suddenly accepts btc besides USD.

That's ridiculous. $20-$30 still makes Bitcoin an excellent investment - did you know that it was traded at $13 in January?

Then, everything you describe already happened in 2011. Mining bubble that hurt a lot of miners that were forced to shut their rigs off because they couldn't pay for the electricity costs, doom and gloom everywhere, "Bitcoin is a Ponzi and Satoshi is its very own Madoff" posts & articles, "if you are not out, get out" screams, hyper negative media cycle ("The Rise and Fall of Bitcoin", Wired), painful bubble deflation from $32 to $1.98 (Nov 2011), hacks, scams, etc. etc. etc. etc. etc.

So... What? Bitcoin is just a publicly traded asset very prone to speculation and boom and bust cycles because of its design. "The emotional damage will be done"... You should know that we've already been there, we've already seen that, and nothing happened. Bitcoin raised stronger than before, because "the emotional damage" fades away as quick as the euphoria spread during the hype cycle.

"Once a dog stock is declared a dog stock it never really loses that moniker."?? And what happened in 2011? Happened that those who believed in the CRAP you just wrote sold for good, and missed the train.

So much fail in these forums.

So your just a sad troll then ...
Your insights and wisdom will be sadly missed. Won't be seeing you elsewhere cos you just made my ignore list

cya

The danger to Bitcoin from a significant fall now comes from the damage that will be done to its reputation - all those new entrants who have signed up for thousand dollar ASIC machines will face real losses with little or no scope of returns if BTC stabilises at $20-30, pre-order refund requests will sky rocket and companies will go bust as the clamour for refunds mounts and new orders dry up. Lots of people (particularly governmental types) will shout fraud and the broader adoption of bitcoin will be irreparably damaged as the conventional press jumps on the beat up bitcoin bandwagon.

Yes we can argue that people should not invest if they cannot afford to lose, speculative markets, unproven technology and all that jazz - but the emotional damage will be done. Once a dog stock is declared a dog stock it never really loses that moniker.

Being a moderator does not prevent to be stupid.
That will be my last message on this thread anyway. So you'd better go somewhere else if you want to see my captain obvious posts

Cya

Go on Blitz ...



I'm gonna sit back and enjoy the show

If you were right, you could predict the price for the next days/weeks/months with a very reliable way.
But you're totally wrong.

The price is driving by manipulation, mt.gox announcements and people who owns million of bitcoins without saying it.
more  than 400 000 000 000 USD were traded every day (2010).
less than 100 000 bitcoins are traded every day (now).

You can't trade both the same way, with the same tools.

Really? I completely disagree. How do you trade Bitcoins if you don't thoroughly analyze fundamentals/technicals/sentiment?

Charts are depicting the technicals and the technicals form the sentiment.

Pray tell, what methods do you use and how successful have they been ?

You're wasting your time.

That's the people getting owned on emotional killing, yes. Killing an animal in general is actually a pretty serious affair, even though it can be fun.
If you want to kill an ant, you won't use a nuclear weapon, will you?


If you want to trade bitcoins, you should not spend hours and hours on useless matters, analyzing graphs and making crazy stupid assumptions and conclusions.

Also, we are just on the line lows before boom and 16th April low.

I agree that final Capitulation the real new bottom is probably still ahead of us...

That's the people getting owned on emotional trading, yes. Investing and money in general is actually a pretty serious affair, even though it can be fun.

If you believe in the underlying fundamentals of Bitcoin (which 99% of us do, that's why we post on bitcointalk.org) a downtrend is always a great buying opportunity.

Still not good enough for me. I will start buying incremental quantities (less when its higher, more when its lower) starting from $82ish, where I placed my first mini-bid.

You're taking bitcoin to seriously


Do you think that people care about the graphs / explanations?
If they want to buy, they buy ; if they want to sell they sell ...

Until USD withdrawals are possible again I don't believe this all means much, it could all be a temporary dip until withdrawals and confidence are restored. I don't care about your wish for a fast deflation, bull in denial or not I see this is a great buying opportunity.

Pretty much why a 2011 was always a realistic scenario. The people who've seen it before are drowned out by new ones in bubble mentality. And even those who have seen it before can succumb to "it's different".


It's hilarious. People would rather listen to someone in a mental institution than to someone who makes you face your cognitive dissonance.

You are father of reptelia guy ?