I am not sure that the market has bottomed out, so a further collapse is still possible. If you look fundamentally, there are all the prerequisites for this: geopolitical instability, rising inflation, the economic crisis, rising unemployment, rising prices, the energy crisis. All these are good catalysts for further declines. The news often mentions that if bitcoin falls below 17600, it could trigger the liquidation of more than 75,000 bitcoins. If that happens, there will be a snowball effect, a cascading liquidation like that would trigger a deep and prolonged drop. We saw something similar in March 2020.
For me, we might see another bottoming next year if the recession will continue in 2023 (it will likely happen). So we might see another market crash, and as you have said the war in Europe and the geopolitics between US and China are still in the background for us.
So it's better to really have a mindset that the worst for us is still going to come next year and that the price could sink deeper. At least we are prepared and not panic if it does down < $17,500, our lower lows for this bear market so far.