Crypto Market Update: BTC continues to drop lower, where next?

error08

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Quote from: cryptoadvocate on October 15, 2019, 10:06:04 PM

Quote from: Theb on October 15, 2019, 10:18:12 AM

A week has past since this article was created and the market has proved his analysis wrong. I have to admit it that I just read his article now only to find out that I wasted my time, this wasn't an educated analysis at all and he only had used RSI as an indicator whoch he didn't even mention in the article. If you are reading the article now you might just see that it might just be FUD so that the OP will get the 7,000$ price he wanted.

How has it been proven wrong? The only thing wrong is that I expected lower within 48 hours; doesn't mean it still doesn't get there. Here we are back to $8100 after a brief rally. RSI is just something I keep an eye on for divergences, not really used.

Yes, it still doesn't get there, bitcoin still holds above $7700 support, the lowest price today was $7920 even though there is a strong-sell indicator on trading view, back to $8000 the moment. I'm aiming for a price lower than $7800 for weeks but bitcoin seems to persist until this point. Any thoughts where it headed next? Hold above $8000 or dip to $7700?

cryptoadvocate

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Quote from: Theb on October 15, 2019, 10:18:12 AM

A week has past since this article was created and the market has proved his analysis wrong. I have to admit it that I just read his article now only to find out that I wasted my time, this wasn't an educated analysis at all and he only had used RSI as an indicator whoch he didn't even mention in the article. If you are reading the article now you might just see that it might just be FUD so that the OP will get the 7,000$ price he wanted.

How has it been proven wrong? The only thing wrong is that I expected lower within 48 hours; doesn't mean it still doesn't get there. Here we are back to $8100 after a brief rally. RSI is just something I keep an eye on for divergences, not really used.

Pearls Before Swine

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Quote from: magneto on October 09, 2019, 08:03:53 AM

There is simply not enough bullish momentum to get us going anywhere near the 5 figure psychological level that would signal the resurgence of a bull market at the moment.

Right now there's no momentum at all, and bitcoin is fluctuating much like it did when it was in the $10,000 range just a month or two ago. And that 5 figure level you mentioned is what I and most bitcoiners are hoping for. It is much nicer to see it in the $10 k range than anything below that.

Quote from: magneto on October 09, 2019, 08:03:53 AM

I think that the more likely outcome is probably a dip below $8k, testing the $7.2k support that you speak of within your article.

Ooooh, I hope we don't see $7200 anytime soon. I do have a feeling that when bitcoin starts to pick a direction it's going to be up. I really don't think its all that bearish in the market right now, just stagnant. Recall that when bitcoin hit $10,000 it had risen from somewhere in the $3000 range.

Many traders probably made a lot of money and then cashed out, causing bitcoin to dip to where it is now. I think (and hope) that that previous bullishness will prevail again.

exstasie

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Quote from: BitHodler on October 14, 2019, 06:29:40 AM

People are still too bullish and that concerns me---the sentiment whenever we bottom always has been very toxic where people were expecting much lower lows, and that's something we're missing here.

We must be reading two different forums. People have gotten extremely bearish, widely proclaiming a bear market. Almost everyone is pointing to $6K, $5K, or lower. The fear and greed index has been consistently in "fear" or "extreme fear" for the past month.

The only thing that bothers me is that long/short ratio hasn't reversed on Bitfinex. Longs never got squeezed out and shorts haven't piled on.

Quote from: BitHodler on October 14, 2019, 06:29:40 AM

Remember the sentiment when we hit $31xx? People were speculating about $2k or even sub $1k prices.

Yeah but you're talking about the ultimate bottom of a long term bear market. Of course you'll see the most bearish sentiment possible. This time, we may only be in a short term pullback in a long term bull market. It won't feel the same.

Theb

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A week has past since this article was created and the market has proved his analysis wrong. I have to admit it that I just read his article now only to find out that I wasted my time, this wasn't an educated analysis at all and he only had used RSI as an indicator whoch he didn't even mention in the article. If you are reading the article now you might just see that it might just be FUD so that the OP will get the 7,000$ price he wanted.

ardentvolcanoes

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Quote from: Wexnident on October 15, 2019, 08:52:38 AM

Quote from: cryptoadvocate on October 14, 2019, 10:36:20 AM

I don't think I agree. I'd been posting for a long time that I was anticipating a breakdown. No one's ever going to predict the day it will happen but I called for it and didn't waver from that call. As far as the suddenness... if price has bounced from the same level that many times, when it does give out it's going to be violent. The same thing with the 6k breakdown.

Well, you indeed predicted it right but that doesn't really mean you could predict the next one correctly and the next and the one after that right? Besides, I doubt the bitcoin price would breakdown to 6k. I'd expect it to go below 7500$ but not anymore below that amount. I'm still hoping that Bakkt could come back from its disappointing launch and even if not, from what I experienced in the past, Q4 is the time for the price to increase or at the very least, progress on a steadly line instead of crashing down.

It's tough to accurately predict the next market trend even you succeed in your position but it will never happened all the time not unless you are a big bag holder(Whale) who can decide the direction according to the numbers of bag holds that you are storing inside your wallet.

Market still unclear and it's all about opinions and good decision making to survive and continue to work inside the market.

Wexnident

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Quote from: cryptoadvocate on October 14, 2019, 10:36:20 AM

Quote from: Red-Apple on October 14, 2019, 06:48:13 AM

the problem with bitcoin price is that you can never predict the sudden drops. what you can predict is the downtrends and uptrends but never the sudden movements.
what we had was a sudden drop which didn't even take a full day to get to the bottom of it! there is no way you could ever predict that.
on top of that, calling this a downtrend and "continues to drop" is a bit odd to me.

I don't think I agree. I'd been posting for a long time that I was anticipating a breakdown. No one's ever going to predict the day it will happen but I called for it and didn't waver from that call. As far as the suddenness... if price has bounced from the same level that many times, when it does give out it's going to be violent. The same thing with the 6k breakdown.

Well, you indeed predicted it right but that doesn't really mean you could predict the next one correctly and the next and the one after that right? Besides, I doubt the bitcoin price would breakdown to 6k. I'd expect it to go below 7500$ but not anymore below that amount. I'm still hoping that Bakkt could come back from its disappointing launch and even if not, from what I experienced in the past, Q4 is the time for the price to increase or at the very least, progress on a steadly line instead of crashing down.

cryptoadvocate

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Quote from: Red-Apple on October 14, 2019, 06:48:13 AM

the problem with bitcoin price is that you can never predict the sudden drops. what you can predict is the downtrends and uptrends but never the sudden movements.
what we had was a sudden drop which didn't even take a full day to get to the bottom of it! there is no way you could ever predict that.
on top of that, calling this a downtrend and "continues to drop" is a bit odd to me.

I don't think I agree. I'd been posting for a long time that I was anticipating a breakdown. No one's ever going to predict the day it will happen but I called for it and didn't waver from that call. As far as the suddenness... if price has bounced from the same level that many times, when it does give out it's going to be violent. The same thing with the 6k breakdown.

Red-Apple

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the problem with bitcoin price is that you can never predict the sudden drops. what you can predict is the downtrends and uptrends but never the sudden movements.
what we had was a sudden drop which didn't even take a full day to get to the bottom of it! there is no way you could ever predict that.
on top of that, calling this a downtrend and "continues to drop" is a bit odd to me.

BitHodler

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Quote from: cryptoadvocate on October 13, 2019, 07:24:26 PM

Still think there's more downside, though I've described my conditions for when I'll consider flipping bullish in my latest post here:

We think similar. In all honesty, I really hope that we don't have to go through this, but looking at the chart and the overall bearish trend confirmation, it makes me believe that we have one big capitulation dump to go through.

People are still too bullish and that concerns me---the sentiment whenever we bottom always has been very toxic where people were expecting much lower lows, and that's something we're missing here.

Remember the sentiment when we hit $31xx? People were speculating about $2k or even sub $1k prices. That's when you know bags are empty and dumb money is planning to buy the dip that they expect will happen, but turns out to not happen.

cryptoadvocate

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Quote from: FanEagle on October 09, 2019, 10:36:28 AM

Well, considering OP was expecting his 7000 to 7350 buy orders to be filled in the "next 48 hours" 2 days ago we can say that his bear call was for nothing and he turned out to be wrong. Now I am not saying he will always be wrong but that is what happened for this time only.

It means as you can see even the people who are really good at these kinds of stuff could turn out to be wrong in bitcoin world because it is not like the fiat markets which does what is expected of them. If you master forex you would be hardly ever wrong because it really does what it is expected (unless some president does something crazy, yes I am talking about Trump). So all in all we do expect a bear run soon but it may not be as soon as we imagined it would be, it may take some more time to come.

Markets are never certain, I certainly communicate that in every post I write. I personally profited greatly, despite the jump in BTC price since my short orders were moved into profit. I mean I've called for low $7,000's since $12k and it got to $7,700 lol. Still think there's more downside, though I've described my conditions for when I'll consider flipping bullish in my latest post here:

https://www.cryptoadvocate.net/post/bitcoin-weekly-update-10-13-2019

cryptoadvocate

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Quote from: magneto on October 09, 2019, 08:03:53 AM

Quote from: cryptoadvocate on October 06, 2019, 09:11:45 PM

Been regularly covering Bitcoin price action since well above $10k and have been calling for the low $7,000's. Here's my latest thoughts on where BTC is headed and where might be spots to scale in.

https://www.cryptoadvocate.net/post/crypto-market-weekly-recap-10-06-19

Pretty accurate predictions actually. You called the rally in Chainlink as well, kudos.

Resistance at $8.2k is still extremely strong, it doesn't seem like BTC will very easily break through that level at all. There is simply not enough bullish momentum to get us going anywhere near the 5 figure psychological level that would signal the resurgence of a bull market at the moment.

I think that the more likely outcome is probably a dip below $8k, testing the $7.2k support that you speak of within your article. If that holds up we could see a very slow and stretched out recovery, and if not, there could be an extended period of bearishness. But I wouldn't be so quick to call this market right now a bear market, though.

Thank you

vintages

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Quote from: FanEagle on October 09, 2019, 10:36:28 AM

Well, considering OP was expecting his 7000 to 7350 buy orders to be filled in the "next 48 hours" 2 days ago we can say that his bear call was for nothing and he turned out to be wrong. Now I am not saying he will always be wrong but that is what happened for this time only.

This shows that the price can be super unpredictable this period and it might last like this till the month ending. As it keeps fluctuating every now and then, I won't even think of trading quick like most traders are doing now. Its just pure risky.
Instead sacking up the wallet will be a better option.

Quidat

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Quote from: Kyraishi on October 09, 2019, 09:43:10 PM

Quote from: error08 on October 09, 2019, 09:22:42 PM

Quote from: error08 on October 09, 2019, 08:10:03 AM

Quote from: figmentofmyass on October 08, 2019, 01:17:01 PM

we're gonna need more than that to turn this market around. Roll Eyes

everyone knows the chances of approval are close to nil. the only one hyping up the application is bitwise. the SEC chairman reiterated last month that ETF approval isn't coming anytime soon. accordingly, the market stopped pumping off ETF hype like a year ago.

Indeed, but this event and hype have become a pattern that always repeated. I'm pretty sure bitcoin price will hold a bit and rise at least to $8500

And here we are, I even didn't check the market price for the last 12 hours but recently woke up, the price of bitcoin has reached $8600 and now sitting at $8550.
Well, it might not correlate to ETFs at all, just the usual market movement to break the barrier instead of hold on the resistance level. The question; where it headed next? whether bitcoin will be stuck at $8500 for days, rise up over $9000, or get back to $8000. Need to check some TA analysis.

We could base this pump in price on people buying BTC due to the recent news about ETF (how it has now moved pretty quickly ahead), but it's not huge news and I'm not sure if that's 100 percent the reason of the pump.

I personally am bearish on the future and I don't think BTC will be able to hit anything above the 10,000 mark, and I think it'll end the year with a slight drop in price - maybe around the 6-7k mark.

Talking about ETF then its been rejected already but we havent seen significant price slump on past days but rather we did
able to see some small gains reaching on $8600 price and now we go down with -300$ which isnt bad for a typical day.
Being bearish or bullish with bitcoin doesnt really matter because no one can know on what would happen on next months to come
but im sure with upcoming halving event the price will somewhat increase yet there would really be a demand to that point.

Kyraishi

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Quote from: error08 on October 09, 2019, 09:22:42 PM

Quote from: error08 on October 09, 2019, 08:10:03 AM

Quote from: figmentofmyass on October 08, 2019, 01:17:01 PM

we're gonna need more than that to turn this market around. Roll Eyes

everyone knows the chances of approval are close to nil. the only one hyping up the application is bitwise. the SEC chairman reiterated last month that ETF approval isn't coming anytime soon. accordingly, the market stopped pumping off ETF hype like a year ago.

Indeed, but this event and hype have become a pattern that always repeated. I'm pretty sure bitcoin price will hold a bit and rise at least to $8500

And here we are, I even didn't check the market price for the last 12 hours but recently woke up, the price of bitcoin has reached $8600 and now sitting at $8550.
Well, it might not correlate to ETFs at all, just the usual market movement to break the barrier instead of hold on the resistance level. The question; where it headed next? whether bitcoin will be stuck at $8500 for days, rise up over $9000, or get back to $8000. Need to check some TA analysis.

We could base this pump in price on people buying BTC due to the recent news about ETF (how it has now moved pretty quickly ahead), but it's not huge news and I'm not sure if that's 100 percent the reason of the pump.

I personally am bearish on the future and I don't think BTC will be able to hit anything above the 10,000 mark, and I think it'll end the year with a slight drop in price - maybe around the 6-7k mark.

error08

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Quote from: error08 on October 09, 2019, 08:10:03 AM

Quote from: figmentofmyass on October 08, 2019, 01:17:01 PM

we're gonna need more than that to turn this market around. Roll Eyes

everyone knows the chances of approval are close to nil. the only one hyping up the application is bitwise. the SEC chairman reiterated last month that ETF approval isn't coming anytime soon. accordingly, the market stopped pumping off ETF hype like a year ago.

Indeed, but this event and hype have become a pattern that always repeated. I'm pretty sure bitcoin price will hold a bit and rise at least to $8500

And here we are, I even didn't check the market price for the last 12 hours but recently woke up, the price of bitcoin has reached $8600 and now sitting at $8550.
Well, it might not correlate to ETFs at all, just the usual market movement to break the barrier instead of hold on the resistance level. The question; where it headed next? whether bitcoin will be stuck at $8500 for days, rise up over $9000, or get back to $8000. Need to check some TA analysis.

FanEagle

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Well, considering OP was expecting his 7000 to 7350 buy orders to be filled in the "next 48 hours" 2 days ago we can say that his bear call was for nothing and he turned out to be wrong. Now I am not saying he will always be wrong but that is what happened for this time only.

It means as you can see even the people who are really good at these kinds of stuff could turn out to be wrong in bitcoin world because it is not like the fiat markets which does what is expected of them. If you master forex you would be hardly ever wrong because it really does what it is expected (unless some president does something crazy, yes I am talking about Trump). So all in all we do expect a bear run soon but it may not be as soon as we imagined it would be, it may take some more time to come.

bryant.coleman

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IMO, the uncertainty surrounding Libra is having a negative impact upon the Bitcoin exchange rates. Some of the partners of Facebook who had earlier committed themselves to the Libra project has withdrawn and the proposed crypto-project from Facebook is facing a lot of opposition from the American lawmakers. It is not known whether they will be able to honor the timelines or not. If there is an official announcement from team Libra confirming either the postponement or abandonment of this project, then we can expect a bloodbath in the cryptocurrency market.

One of the reasons why Bitcoin rallied earlier this year was due to the hype surrounding Libra. The entry of a major corporation like Facebook in to the world of cryptocurrency was supposed to give some sort of legitimacy to the currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. But now that looks uncertain and there is a very good chance that the exchange rate can plummet sharply.

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Quote from: error08 on October 09, 2019, 08:10:03 AM

Quote from: figmentofmyass on October 08, 2019, 01:17:01 PM

we're gonna need more than that to turn this market around. Roll Eyes

everyone knows the chances of approval are close to nil. the only one hyping up the application is bitwise. the SEC chairman reiterated last month that ETF approval isn't coming anytime soon. accordingly, the market stopped pumping off ETF hype like a year ago.

Indeed, but this event and hype have become a pattern that always repeated. I'm pretty sure bitcoin price will hold a bit and rise at least to $8500 although we know the ETF proposal will be rejected again.
If the market still stuck at this point for 7 days, the price will drop again for sure.

ETF pronouncement this time might have a significant impart on the price of bitcoin you mentioned that the proposal might be rejected again of course there had been several postponement and I hope to see SEC making a final pronouncement without any postpoment however the price of bitcoin had been in ranging for quite some days now having been rejected at a strong support at $7800+ however a positive fundamental news could push up the price to $8500+

error08

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Quote from: figmentofmyass on October 08, 2019, 01:17:01 PM

we're gonna need more than that to turn this market around. Roll Eyes

everyone knows the chances of approval are close to nil. the only one hyping up the application is bitwise. the SEC chairman reiterated last month that ETF approval isn't coming anytime soon. accordingly, the market stopped pumping off ETF hype like a year ago.

Indeed, but this event and hype have become a pattern that always repeated. I'm pretty sure bitcoin price will hold a bit and rise at least to $8500 although we know the ETF proposal will be rejected again.
If the market still stuck at this point for 7 days, the price will drop again for sure.

Topic: Crypto Market Update: BTC continues to drop lower, where next? (Read 416 times)