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Topic: cryptocurrencies and monetary supply (growth rates) - page 3. (Read 5090 times)

donator
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1079
Gerald Davis
Coins scammed or hacked aren't lost.  Criminal buy and sell them.  They remain part of the money supply.

You will NEVER be able to change the minting rate.  Even 99% of miners can't do that. It would require a complete consensus of all users, all nodes, all merchants, all exchanges, and all miners.  Doing it with less will cause a permanent fork in the network and the new fork probably not supported enough to survive.  Say you make BTC generation 12.5 but MtGox accepts coins from the original fork 6.25 BTC rate.  You now have a situation where two entities are calling themselves Bitcoin but they are completely incompatible.  

Given non-miners gain nothing from a higher generation rate why would they update their clients just to make miners richer?  If they don't upgrade their clients well they won't even be able to see the new blocks as valid.  The miners who continue to mine the "old fork" will see tx rise and difficulty fall and become massively profitable.

Best case scenario is they most nodes simply ignore the "hard fork miners" and the fork just goes away.  Worst case scenario is you end up in a situation where both forks have significant support and it likely will very damaging to Bitcoin.  Can you imagine the noob confusion if they send Bitcoin to a merchant's address but the merchant does see them because the merchant is using the "other" Bitcoin?

Note:
The topic is interesting for creation of new alt-coins.  However Bitcoin is probably never going to change.  Not something as fundamental as the minting rate.  Changing it after the fact would be essentially a bait and switch and would lead to a loss of confidence.  If miners can change the rate once they can change it again.  What is to say someday miners won't act like the Fed and determine the appropriate mining rate in order to control economic expansion?   
donator
Activity: 980
Merit: 1000
A lot of inefficient miners will turn off their hardware.  The same inefficient miners will turn off their hardware if the price dropped to $5 USD:BTC and stayed there for a couple of weeks.  Miners turning off rigs isn't unexpected.  Those miners who turned off rigs would turn them right back on if USD:BTC went to $20 and stayed there for a couple weeks.

While the halving will affect the community I would point out the FIRST halving will (IMHO already has) have the largest effect.  By the third or fourth halving fees will be significantly more important and the money supply so large relative to generation rate the halving really won't make much of a splash.

I think a lot of people will sell their equipment. ASIC wide adoption and reward halving will seemingly happen close to each other, causing a perfect storm for mining concentration. Valuation is extremely hard to predict but I don't think it will shoot up as much as it should to make GPU mining profitable for much longer. We will see.

Another thing I didn't mention, is that certain elements are easy to modify in Bitcoin as is. For instance, enforcing more substantial fees is something the miners can decide and there will be fewer in the future. Even future halvings could be changed or postponed if there was enough support. That would be harder to agree IMO, but the fee part of the equation can be a relatively easy change.

I do think we should aim for a minimum growth rate though. Probably stop after the second halving so lost coins (to early scams/hacks/accidents) don't have as big an impact. Stopping the halvings after the 2nd halving would also converge to 0% long term but it would give us a few decades between 4% and 1%. Maybe stop after the second halving and then setting the block to meet a minimum rate around 1~2% a year (still very low, but significant over generations so late entrants are not as punished as they would be with a hard limit on total coins).
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
While the halving will affect the community I would point out the FIRST halving will (IMHO already has) have the largest effect.  By the third or fourth halving fees will be significantly more important and the money supply so large relative to generation rate the halving really won't make much of a splash.

Well TangibleCryptography, I'm not so sure about that. From 25->12.5, there need to be 25,000 transactions every ten minutes at the current .0005 fee to make up for the "loss". About 42 t/s, or about the same level of popularity as paypal. For it to not have a significant effect, the loss of 12.5 coins would have to be dwarfed by the transaction fees, meaning there'd have to be at least several hundred t/s. It could happen, but I still think 25->12.5 will be pretty significant and definitely not "not much of a splash".
donator
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1079
Gerald Davis
A lot of inefficient miners will turn off their hardware.  The same inefficient miners will turn off their hardware if the price dropped to $5 USD:BTC and stayed there for a couple of weeks.  Miners turning off rigs isn't unexpected.  Those miners who turned off rigs would turn them right back on if USD:BTC went to $20 and stayed there for a couple weeks.

While the halving will affect the community I would point out the FIRST halving will (IMHO already has) have the largest effect.  By the third or fourth halving fees will be significantly more important and the money supply so large relative to generation rate the halving really won't make much of a splash.
donator
Activity: 980
Merit: 1000
Nothing dramatic is going to happen when the block reward drops from 50 to 25, because everyone already knows about it.

I think there's nervousness in the market over the expectation of the reward halving, that's already showing in difficulty and in valuation, and I also think that the reward halving will cause significant reaction in the community. I think you are putting a bit too much faith on users rationality and ability to see through the market when you dismiss the effect of the halving just because it's predictable. How many miners will simply turn off their older machines in early December? The fact that we have rather unpredictable mining technology breakthroughs doesn't help.

I'm not saying that it's a make-or-break factor, but the halvings will definitely affect the community. The question is how exactly and what would you rather have if you could choose.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
That's how gold mining works. There's always more gold to be found, if there are more people who want to work for new gold.

Not exactly. Gold mining has diminishing returns as the easy stores of gold have all generally been found. It becomes more and more difficult to search for gold and the resources required to do so get greater.

Quote
Bitcoin improves on that model by making the inflation rate predictable. People can argue all they want about how Bitcoin's coin creation rate may not be "optimal", but it's good enough that it's not going to make-or-break the currency, and predictability is far more important.

Well the question of the thread is what would you think would be the best model. I think it will make-or-break the currency because it won't act like a currency, it will forever act like a commodity.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
D - an unbounded supply that is determined by the number of people who want and work for new money. If you can guide the cost to produce new money and keep it somewhat stable, new money will only be produced when it is profitable to do so, such as when the network expands and demand increases. How different money would be if it actually took consistent effort rather than putting magical zeroes in a computer.
donator
Activity: 980
Merit: 1000
With the reward halving just about 2 months away, I was once again thinking about the coin creation model in Bitcoin. Pros and cons.

What do you guys think it will be the best model for coin creation?

a - Something like that of bitcoin: fixed long term hard limit, with highest creation rates at the beginning (inverted exponential, or some function with a similar behaviour).
b - Constant fixed block reward rate. Effectively this make the amount unbounded but it's more than anything a psychological perception, over time coin creation would converge towards 0%.
c - Constant % growth over coin base (starting from a premined base, either usable or not, or a period of "a" or "b" - above - coin creation)
d - Something essentially different to a, b, or c. External fixing, variable depending on transactions, etc. Also, elements that could be added to a, b or c (substantial compulsory fees, demurrage, etc).


I think it's worth noting that bitcoin is not really "deflationary" and it won't be for a long time. We are still in a stage of rapid growth both in terms of users and in terms of coins. Right now, yearly monetary creation rates are still 25% yearly for this year, and after halving it will be over 10% for two more years. This is still very high for what we're used to in FIAT world in most industrialised countries in modern times. Sure, there is the perceived expectation of ~0% in the future, but this future is still decades away (under 1% first in year 17, under 0.1% first in year 29) and I don't think many people in the Bitcoin community think that long term. At some point, maybe in about 30 or 40 years, coin loss will beat coin generation.

However the bitcoin model makes general sense in relation to the expected adoption of a new technology. User adoption strongly growths early, with peaks of "viral" stages of adoption, and over time it will achieve a plateau, or even a regression given enough time. It seems reasonable that coin creation is faster at the beginning to match demand. It also allows for a relatively short time frame until we have a low coin creation rate (17 years to hit 1%, vs 100 years if coin creation was constant). So basically most of us will live to see how it is. What I think it's a bit radical is the halving policy instead of a more gradual adjustment. It definitely creates a psychological reaction that translates to the market and to the behaviour of users and miners.

Code:
bitcoin-like model, starting reward 50, 10 min per block
after year 1 100.0 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 2629800.0
after year 2 50.0 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 5259600.0
after year 3 33.3333333333 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 7889400.0
after year 4 25.0 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 10519200.0
after year 5 11.1111111111 % yearly growth -- block reward: 25.0 total monetary mass: 11834100.0
after year 6 10.0 % yearly growth -- block reward: 25.0 total monetary mass: 13149000.0
after year 7 9.09090909091 % yearly growth -- block reward: 25.0 total monetary mass: 14463900.0
after year 8 8.33333333333 % yearly growth -- block reward: 25.0 total monetary mass: 15778800.0
after year 9 4.0 % yearly growth -- block reward: 12.5 total monetary mass: 16436250.0
after year 10 3.84615384615 % yearly growth -- block reward: 12.5 total monetary mass: 17093700.0
after year 11 3.7037037037 % yearly growth -- block reward: 12.5 total monetary mass: 17751150.0
after year 12 3.57142857143 % yearly growth -- block reward: 12.5 total monetary mass: 18408600.0
after year 13 1.75438596491 % yearly growth -- block reward: 6.25 total monetary mass: 18737325.0
after year 14 1.72413793103 % yearly growth -- block reward: 6.25 total monetary mass: 19066050.0
after year 15 1.69491525424 % yearly growth -- block reward: 6.25 total monetary mass: 19394775.0
after year 16 1.66666666667 % yearly growth -- block reward: 6.25 total monetary mass: 19723500.0
after year 17 0.826446280992 % yearly growth -- block reward: 3.125 total monetary mass: 19887862.5
after year 18 0.819672131148 % yearly growth -- block reward: 3.125 total monetary mass: 20052225.0
after year 19 0.813008130081 % yearly growth -- block reward: 3.125 total monetary mass: 20216587.5
after year 20 0.806451612903 % yearly growth -- block reward: 3.125 total monetary mass: 20380950.0
after year 21 0.401606425703 % yearly growth -- block reward: 1.5625 total monetary mass: 20463131.25
after year 22 0.4 % yearly growth -- block reward: 1.5625 total monetary mass: 20545312.5
after year 23 0.398406374502 % yearly growth -- block reward: 1.5625 total monetary mass: 20627493.75
after year 24 0.396825396825 % yearly growth -- block reward: 1.5625 total monetary mass: 20709675.0
after year 25 0.19801980198 % yearly growth -- block reward: 0.78125 total monetary mass: 20750765.625
after year 26 0.197628458498 % yearly growth -- block reward: 0.78125 total monetary mass: 20791856.25
after year 27 0.197238658777 % yearly growth -- block reward: 0.78125 total monetary mass: 20832946.875
after year 28 0.196850393701 % yearly growth -- block reward: 0.78125 total monetary mass: 20874037.5
after year 29 0.0983284169125 % yearly growth -- block reward: 0.390625 total monetary mass: 20894582.8125
after year 30 0.098231827112 % yearly growth -- block reward: 0.390625 total monetary mass: 20915128.125
after year 31 0.0981354268891 % yearly growth -- block reward: 0.390625 total monetary mass: 20935673.4375
after year 32 0.0980392156863 % yearly growth -- block reward: 0.390625 total monetary mass: 20956218.75
after year 33 0.0489955903969 % yearly growth -- block reward: 0.1953125 total monetary mass: 20966491.4062
after year 34 0.048971596474 % yearly growth -- block reward: 0.1953125 total monetary mass: 20976764.0625
after year 35 0.0489476260401 % yearly growth -- block reward: 0.1953125 total monetary mass: 20987036.7188
after year 36 0.0489236790607 % yearly growth -- block reward: 0.1953125 total monetary mass: 20997309.375
after year 37 0.0244558571778 % yearly growth -- block reward: 0.09765625 total monetary mass: 21002445.7031
after year 38 0.0244498777506 % yearly growth -- block reward: 0.09765625 total monetary mass: 21007582.0312
after year 39 0.0244439012466 % yearly growth -- block reward: 0.09765625 total monetary mass: 21012718.3594
after year 40 0.0244379276637 % yearly growth -- block reward: 0.09765625 total monetary mass: 21017854.6875
after year 41 0.0122174709835 % yearly growth -- block reward: 0.048828125 total monetary mass: 21020422.8516
after year 42 0.0122159784999 % yearly growth -- block reward: 0.048828125 total monetary mass: 21022991.0156
after year 43 0.0122144863808 % yearly growth -- block reward: 0.048828125 total monetary mass: 21025559.1797
after year 44 0.0122129946263 % yearly growth -- block reward: 0.048828125 total monetary mass: 21028127.3438
after year 45 0.00610612444282 % yearly growth -- block reward: 0.0244140625 total monetary mass: 21029411.4258
after year 46 0.00610575161802 % yearly growth -- block reward: 0.0244140625 total monetary mass: 21030695.5078
after year 47 0.00610537883876 % yearly growth -- block reward: 0.0244140625 total monetary mass: 21031979.5898
after year 48 0.00610500610501 % yearly growth -- block reward: 0.0244140625 total monetary mass: 21033263.6719
after year 49 0.0030524098776 % yearly growth -- block reward: 0.01220703125 total monetary mass: 21033905.7129
after year 50 0.00305231670838 % yearly growth -- block reward: 0.01220703125 total monetary mass: 21034547.7539

Code:
fixed reward model (50 per block, 10 min per block)
after year 1 100.0 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 2629800.0
after year 2 50.0 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 5259600.0
after year 3 33.3333333333 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 7889400.0
after year 4 25.0 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 10519200.0
after year 5 20.0 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 13149000.0
after year 6 16.6666666667 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 15778800.0
after year 7 14.2857142857 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 18408600.0
after year 8 12.5 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 21038400.0
after year 9 11.1111111111 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 23668200.0
after year 10 10.0 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 26298000.0
after year 11 9.09090909091 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 28927800.0
after year 12 8.33333333333 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 31557600.0
after year 13 7.69230769231 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 34187400.0
after year 14 7.14285714286 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 36817200.0
after year 15 6.66666666667 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 39447000.0
after year 16 6.25 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 42076800.0
after year 17 5.88235294118 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 44706600.0
after year 18 5.55555555556 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 47336400.0
after year 19 5.26315789474 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 49966200.0
after year 20 5.0 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 52596000.0
after year 21 4.7619047619 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 55225800.0
after year 22 4.54545454545 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 57855600.0
after year 23 4.34782608696 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 60485400.0
after year 24 4.16666666667 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 63115200.0
after year 25 4.0 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 65745000.0
after year 26 3.84615384615 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 68374800.0
after year 27 3.7037037037 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 71004600.0
after year 28 3.57142857143 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 73634400.0
after year 29 3.44827586207 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 76264200.0
after year 30 3.33333333333 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 78894000.0
after year 31 3.22580645161 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 81523800.0
after year 32 3.125 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 84153600.0
after year 33 3.0303030303 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 86783400.0
after year 34 2.94117647059 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 89413200.0
after year 35 2.85714285714 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 92043000.0
after year 36 2.77777777778 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 94672800.0
after year 37 2.7027027027 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 97302600.0
after year 38 2.63157894737 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 99932400.0
after year 39 2.5641025641 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 102562200.0
after year 40 2.5 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 105192000.0
after year 41 2.43902439024 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 107821800.0
after year 42 2.38095238095 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 110451600.0
after year 43 2.32558139535 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 113081400.0
after year 44 2.27272727273 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 115711200.0
after year 45 2.22222222222 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 118341000.0
after year 46 2.17391304348 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 120970800.0
after year 47 2.12765957447 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 123600600.0
after year 48 2.08333333333 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 126230400.0
after year 49 2.04081632653 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 128860200.0
after year 50 2.0 % yearly growth -- block reward: 50 total monetary mass: 131490000.0


An example for model c  (after a period of a).
Initial block reward 100, 10 minutes per block, block reward decreases to 90% of itself every year, until a target yearly creation growth rate is matched (2% in this case, the discrepancy to 1.9607% comes from adjusting the block at the beginning of the year and measuring the yearly growth at year end). Target is achieved in this case in ~17 years, and then growth is fixed at ~2% a year. Initial reward adjustment is not dramatic. Coin loss is not a problem. Doubling rate at 2% is 35 years - saving is not strongly punished since 35 years is a reasonable time frame in life-time terms.
Code:
Decreasing reward converging to a given rate (2%) with a starting block reward = 100 and initial block modification rate of 0.900000 (adjusted yearly)
after year 1 100.0 % yearly growth -- block reward: 100 total monetary mass: 5259600.0
after year 2 47.3684210526 % yearly growth -- block reward: 90.0 total monetary mass: 9993240.0
after year 3 29.889298893 % yearly growth -- block reward: 81.0 total monetary mass: 14253516.0
after year 4 21.198022681 % yearly growth -- block reward: 72.9 total monetary mass: 18087764.4
after year 5 16.0215867744 % yearly growth -- block reward: 65.61 total monetary mass: 21538587.96
after year 6 12.6022549988 % yearly growth -- block reward: 59.049 total monetary mass: 24644329.164
after year 7 10.1866559735 % yearly growth -- block reward: 53.1441 total monetary mass: 27439496.2476
after year 8 8.39805729184 % yearly growth -- block reward: 47.82969 total monetary mass: 29955146.6228
after year 9 7.02712386344 % yearly growth -- block reward: 43.046721 total monetary mass: 32219231.9606
after year 10 5.94822147542 % yearly growth -- block reward: 38.7420489 total monetary mass: 34256908.7645
after year 11 5.08137313274 % yearly growth -- block reward: 34.86784401 total monetary mass: 36090817.8881
after year 12 4.37323736196 % yearly growth -- block reward: 31.381059609 total monetary mass: 37741336.0992
after year 13 3.78686585653 % yearly growth -- block reward: 28.2429536481 total monetary mass: 39226802.4893
after year 14 3.29585076819 % yearly growth -- block reward: 25.4186582833 total monetary mass: 40563722.2404
after year 15 2.88081312016 % yearly growth -- block reward: 22.876792455 total monetary mass: 41766950.0163
after year 16 2.52720808038 % yearly growth -- block reward: 20.5891132095 total monetary mass: 42849855.0147
after year 17 2.22390483982 % yearly growth -- block reward: 18.5302018885 total monetary mass: 43824469.5132
after year 18 1.96223984367 % yearly growth -- block reward: 16.6771816997 total monetary mass: 44701622.5619
after year 19 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 16.9981072941 total monetary mass: 45595655.0132
after year 20 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 17.3380694399 total monetary mass: 46507568.1134
after year 21 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 17.6848308287 total monetary mass: 47437719.4757
after year 22 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 18.0385274453 total monetary mass: 48386473.8652
after year 23 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 18.3992979942 total monetary mass: 49354203.3425
after year 24 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 18.7672839541 total monetary mass: 50341287.4094
after year 25 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 19.1426296332 total monetary mass: 51348113.1575
after year 26 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 19.5254822259 total monetary mass: 52375075.4207
after year 27 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 19.9159918704 total monetary mass: 53422576.9291
after year 28 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 20.3143117078 total monetary mass: 54491028.4677
after year 29 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 20.7205979419 total monetary mass: 55580849.037
after year 30 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 21.1350099008 total monetary mass: 56692466.0178
after year 31 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 21.5577100988 total monetary mass: 57826315.3381
after year 32 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 21.9888643008 total monetary mass: 58982841.6449
after year 33 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 22.4286415868 total monetary mass: 60162498.4778
after year 34 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 22.8772144185 total monetary mass: 61365748.4474
after year 35 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 23.3347587069 total monetary mass: 62593063.4163
after year 36 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 23.801453881 total monetary mass: 63844924.6846
after year 37 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 24.2774829586 total monetary mass: 65121823.1783
after year 38 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 24.7630326178 total monetary mass: 66424259.6419
after year 39 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 25.2582932702 total monetary mass: 67752744.8347
after year 40 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 25.7634591356 total monetary mass: 69107799.7314
after year 41 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 26.2787283183 total monetary mass: 70489955.7261
after year 42 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 26.8043028846 total monetary mass: 71899754.8406
after year 43 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 27.3403889423 total monetary mass: 73337749.9374
after year 44 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 27.8871967212 total monetary mass: 74804504.9361
after year 45 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 28.4449406556 total monetary mass: 76300595.0349
after year 46 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 29.0138394687 total monetary mass: 77826606.9356
after year 47 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 29.5941162581 total monetary mass: 79383139.0743
after year 48 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 30.1859985833 total monetary mass: 80970801.8557
after year 49 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 30.7897185549 total monetary mass: 82590217.8929
after year 50 1.96078431373 % yearly growth -- block reward: 31.405512926 total monetary mass: 84242022.2507
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