CSW's "hash wars" impact on BTC price? - page 6.

cellard

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Quote from: theymos on November 15, 2018, 05:28:35 AM

ABC has far more economic support, and I suspect that enough hashrate will be moved to BCH-ABC at the critical time. It's most likely IMO that this will be resolved in ABC's favor within 48 hours.

I will be a bit surprised if SV wins, though it's not impossible. If SV wins, I suppose it'll be only after at least some weeks of war. This'd be the most funny and damaging for BCH, though I find CSW too distasteful to exactly hope for a SV win. It'd be especially funny if one side wins due to economic support despite losing on hashrate, which is possible.

I don't see much impact to BTC of losing 5-10% hashrate in this scuffle, especially since the Bitcoin difficulty adjustment is conveniently going to happen in ~1.5 days. I also don't see much fundamental reason for the BCH outcome to affect BTC's price, though who knows short-term: IMO the recent BTC crash was set off by Jihan trying to make some point (made possible due to low exchange depths/volumes).

It seems CSW is threatening with class action lawsuits as well as mining empty blocks to stop BCHABC supporters (including traders trying to exchange BCHSV for BCHABC, exchanges that support it and whatnot) and he claims Jihan Wu allocating hashrate from BTC to BCHABC is breaking a contract and will have legal consequences. Of course, this sounds like nonsense to me. Which jurisdictions have laws forcing miners to mine a particular coin, or I am missing something here?

Another interesting statistic is the amount of nodes supporting SV:

This will be a good experiment to see hashrate vs economic support. It all comes down to if CSW can afford mining an undervalued coin while mining empty blocks to clutter up ABC and cause reorg.

STT

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Quote from: clrpod on November 15, 2018, 05:29:01 AM

For anyone who hasn't looked. It's worthwhile following his twitter. He seems a little psychotic lately and has a huge vendetta with bitcoin. He's claiming responsibility for the latest crash and says he'll push bitcoin down to $1000 or less. If he keeps this up he's going to have a lot of enemies and with the amount of people he's claiming to have screwed out of a lot of money. He should be keeping himself hidden for some time.

I know people might not like this exactly but one person selling into the market even if it does drop the prices is not an overall negative. His threat of pushing the price anywhere shouldnt really be that important when its just a temporary change in supply, I dont know how other big players might trade this but often a spike in shorts or whatever is used to flip a quick profit as they can buy up that BTC until shorts close out at the higher price. This guy might have alot of BTC compared to many people but he isnt bigger then the overall market.

The only way its going to matter is if BTC was already due to revise this price area and he triggered that, in that case it was going to happen anyway. I also predict the price might resolve upwards, checking the 6100 area before markets decide enmass on a direction up or down. Maybe the 15th is the peak of uncertainty in price, I'm not clear on the timetable for this being resolved exactly but the market often surprises

cellard

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I just realized Poloniex has set up BTCABC and BTCSV tickers:

https://poloniex.com/exchange#btc_bchabc

https://poloniex.com/exchange#btc_bchsv

We can now watch the show unfold. So far BCHABC is winning.

BCHABC: 0.05107443
BCHSV: 0.02050000

The actual fireworks should start a couple hours from now. Can't wait to find out what happens.

naidray

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It will most probably be a non-event. The smart money is in bitcoin right now. If Jihan wants to allocate his hash powers towards ABC and what not to kill CSW's new coin or at least show people that CSW is not the king of bitcoin cash forks or whatever than he will have to lose some money.

His hash power will be used towards some needless useless coin whereas it could make money in bitcoin. So as usual they will have to keep on hashing at bitcoin to make money, they can use that money to beat SV coin with volumes higher. That way he will both make money and still keep SV at bay.

If he is stupid enough to change his hashing power from bitcoin to his own coin than he will be very upset about the amount of money he is losing and in business making money is the only important thing.

mu_enrico

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Agree with @theymos here, the assumed hash rate drop in BTC won't significantly affect BTC. Miner will always mine the most profitable coins in the long run.

The BTC price drop at the moment is not because of this drama. Technical analysis has predicted this event will eventually happen since the 6K support line has been tested multiple times before it finally breaks. And now, BTC is in the process of testing the 5K support line.

clrpod

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For anyone who hasn't looked. It's worthwhile following his twitter. He seems a little psychotic lately and has a huge vendetta with bitcoin. He's claiming responsibility for the latest crash and says he'll push bitcoin down to $1000 or less. If he keeps this up he's going to have a lot of enemies and with the amount of people he's claiming to have screwed out of a lot of money. He should be keeping himself hidden for some time.

theymos

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ABC has far more economic support, and I suspect that enough hashrate will be moved to BCH-ABC at the critical time. It's most likely IMO that this will be resolved in ABC's favor within 48 hours.

I will be a bit surprised if SV wins, though it's not impossible. If SV wins, I suppose it'll be only after at least some weeks of war. This'd be the most funny and damaging for BCH, though I find CSW too distasteful to exactly hope for a SV win. It'd be especially funny if one side wins due to economic support despite losing on hashrate, which is possible.

I don't see much impact to BTC of losing 5-10% hashrate in this scuffle, especially since the Bitcoin difficulty adjustment is conveniently going to happen in ~1.5 days. I also don't see much fundamental reason for the BCH outcome to affect BTC's price, though who knows short-term: IMO the recent BTC crash was set off by Jihan trying to make some point (made possible due to low exchange depths/volumes).

talkbitcoin

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All I know is that I know nothing.

Quote from: adaseb on November 15, 2018, 04:20:53 AM

So how exactly does Craig Wright intend to destroy the ABC chain by orphaning a bunch of blocks?

based on his history of lies and deceit, all the threats that he has made so far have been empty. but some believed it and some miners even showed their support for his crappy fork. so here we are...

adaseb

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So how exactly does Craig Wright intend to destroy the ABC chain by orphaning a bunch of blocks? Because since BCH unlike BTC has the improved difficulty retarget algo and its chain won't grind to a halt when the hash power drops, eventually the difficulty would decrease and the lower hashrate would return to 10 minute block times.

If he wants to destroy or hurt ABC, then he would have to orphan a bunch of blocks or mine empty blocks. However most exchanges will see this and halt deposit or just increase the confirmation limit higher. Basically Bitfinex I think now has 30 confirmations needed for deposit creditation.

So if he wants to do this, it would get very very expensive and most likely not do much.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: cellard on November 14, 2018, 01:36:35 PM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on November 14, 2018, 01:41:11 AM

Quote from: cellard on November 13, 2018, 11:25:14 PM

Craig Wright is back with his Bitcoin SV fork, and is showing strenght thus far with the amount of hashrate that is going to support the Bitcoin SV fork.

Apparently Roger Ver and Jihan Wu aren't supporting it, hence why the "hash wars" terms. With Jihan's empire against Craig Wright's 70% current hashrate it's going to be interesting.

This is funny. Bitcoin Cash is a parody of itself. Roger Ver and the Bitcoin Cash community said that, nodes do not matter, and the miners decide. Well the miners have decided. Bitcoin SV will be the real Bitcoin Cash! Hahahaha.

What now? Will they say that non-mining nodes matter, and that users should decide? Or that Bitcoin SV is an attack? Cool

Quote

The reason I ask about BTC price is because if Jihan wants to ensure CSW doesn't win, he may be forced to allocate BTC hashrate into this developing clusterfuck in BCash.

Good, more opportunity for honest Bitcoin miners.

Quote

Will this be a non event or speculators will try to get some BTC out of it from noobs that fall into it?

Bitcoin does not care. Cool

Yes, that is exactly what they are saying. On /r/btc there's a bunch of people complaining about Craig Wright's hashrate, they are claiming that miners do not matter if the rest of the community don't follow them. Just a couple of months ago during the SegWit2x nonsense, they were saying how miners were showing their strength by having like, what was it, something really high I forgot, maybe 80% of hashrate was showing intention of SegWit2x support... the tides have turned, now they are suffering from a hashrate troll.

Plus Roger Ver might use the "hash war" to be his convenient exit from Bitcoin Cash, and come back to Bitcoin. We should open a poll, "will you welcome Roger Ver back with open arms?". Haha.

Quote

CSW claims he will take BTC next year when he kills BCash and his SV fork takes over. He also said in 2019 "LTC will die" as well as other PoW coins. I don't know about weak alktcoins but him taking over BTC is obviously nonsense.

It will work on newbies today, but memefied tomorrow. Cool

BitHodler

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Quote from: European Central Bank on November 14, 2018, 02:41:15 PM

The most depressing thing about it will be the feed this csw psycho's ego will get if he gets somewhere.

His time will run out when nChain's financial resources are exhausted, because once CSW can't fund money hungry miners who don't mind fucking up another chain, they'll move back to BTC because it's more profitable to mine.

The funny thing here is that both nChain and CoinGeek depend on Bitmain because that's where they bought their gear from. It will be interesting to see if Jihan ends up blocking them from buying gear in the future.

If I was an investor I wouldn't even think about touching any of this garbage, but then again, this space is all about reckless investments so I'm not surprised that others don't give a shizzle. All that matters are cold hard profits.

STT

legendary

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The most likely crossover from BCH affecting BTC like this is from sales of BTC into the market by long term holders to fund hashing on this fork, so as to decide the path. So that volatility has exceeded the boundaries in crypto between different blockchains, wonder if anyone saw that coming especially. The tail is wagging the dog Huh

Is this a proper breakout for BTC from its sideways crab movement, or will it revert in a few days after this moment passes.
I would guess it counts, volume on the day should show significance also

European Central Bank

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Is this the very first true mining war?

It could well be. I guess the effect could be to scare the holders of other pow coins, even though these circumstances are uniquely toxic.

The most depressing thing about it will be the feed this csw psycho's ego will get if he gets somewhere.

cellard

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on November 14, 2018, 01:41:11 AM

Quote from: cellard on November 13, 2018, 11:25:14 PM

Craig Wright is back with his Bitcoin SV fork, and is showing strenght thus far with the amount of hashrate that is going to support the Bitcoin SV fork.

Apparently Roger Ver and Jihan Wu aren't supporting it, hence why the "hash wars" terms. With Jihan's empire against Craig Wright's 70% current hashrate it's going to be interesting.

This is funny. Bitcoin Cash is a parody of itself. Roger Ver and the Bitcoin Cash community said that, nodes do not matter, and the miners decide. Well the miners have decided. Bitcoin SV will be the real Bitcoin Cash! Hahahaha.

What now? Will they say that non-mining nodes matter, and that users should decide? Or that Bitcoin SV is an attack? Cool

Quote

The reason I ask about BTC price is because if Jihan wants to ensure CSW doesn't win, he may be forced to allocate BTC hashrate into this developing clusterfuck in BCash.

Good, more opportunity for honest Bitcoin miners.

Quote

Will this be a non event or speculators will try to get some BTC out of it from noobs that fall into it?

Bitcoin does not care. Cool

Yes, that is exactly what they are saying. On /r/btc there's a bunch of people complaining about Craig Wright's hashrate, they are claiming that miners do not matter if the rest of the community don't follow them. Just a couple of months ago during the SegWit2x nonsense, they were saying how miners were showing their strength by having like, what was it, something really high I forgot, maybe 80% of hashrate was showing intention of SegWit2x support... the tides have turned, now they are suffering from a hashrate troll.

CSW claims he will take BTC next year when he kills BCash and his SV fork takes over. He also said in 2019 "LTC will die" as well as other PoW coins. I don't know about weak alktcoins but him taking over BTC is obviously nonsense.

1Referee

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Quote from: Slow death on November 14, 2018, 11:20:13 AM

he will not do it, in the last day I hears rumors that he had been removed from leading the bitmain, today I read this news:

Bitcoin Mining Firm Bitmain Confirms Board Shakeup, Denies Jihan Wu is Out as Chair

this shows that there are internal problems in Bitmain

It's just a smokescreen attempt to make him appear less relevant because of their IPO filling. Bitmain's extreme bias towards BCash might turn out to be a problem, and then mainly Jihan with how he is the public face of Bitmain, and this could very well be a convenient way to tackle any potential doubts on the side of the regulators.

Don't forget that Jihan has to ask for board approval to use Bitmain resources to stock up on BCash, and that approval was given to him more than once if you look at their accumulation history. In other words, this is just standard media circus.

cellard

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Quote from: pooya87 on November 13, 2018, 11:44:16 PM

in the long run it will not matter at all because miners will always mine what is most profitable and bitcoin will remain that. similar to bitcoin-cash shenanigans we can expect a lot of chaos in bitcoin when they steal hashrate by making their chain more profitable to mine at first but in the end miners will come back to bitcoin. and as a result there won't be any bitcoin price change.

by the way, how do you know the following. SV chain has not started yet, has it?

Quote from: cellard on November 13, 2018, 11:25:14 PM

the amount of hashrate that is going to support the Bitcoin SV fork.

You can already check the intention of the miners on the coin dance website just liek you could check it for segwit activation, bcash fork and other shenanigans:

https://cash.coin.dance/blocks#blockDetailsForChainSplit

For this, you must understand what every pool is and what they are supporting. See this pic:

You may to check this out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACEUOCoVvmw

This might be a good opportunity to pick cheap coins again if deluded noobs start selling BTC and buying whatever shitcoin that comes out of this.

Slow death

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Quote from: cellard on November 13, 2018, 11:25:14 PM

Craig Wright is back with his Bitcoin SV fork,

Faketoshi is a big problem for the crypto world, I just hope he stays with his altcoins (Bitcoin SV) and forgets bitcoin

Quote from: cellard on November 13, 2018, 11:25:14 PM

With Jihan's empire against Craig Wright's 70% current hashrate it's going to be interesting.

The market is that will decide what will be better, in my opinion this was the worst decision that faketoshi, jihan Wu and Roger Ver made, because this decision will only make altcoin cash disappear, so far altcoin cash did not disappear because they were united . see that altcoin ABC has the price of 0.04 BTC and altcoin SV has the price of 0.035 BTC, in the next days these altcoins are going to fall of price

Quote from: cellard on November 13, 2018, 11:25:14 PM

The reason I ask about BTC price is because if Jihan wants to ensure CSW doesn't win, he may be forced to allocate BTC hashrate into this developing clusterfuck in BCash.

he will not do it, in the last day I hears rumors that he had been removed from leading the bitmain, today I read this news:

Bitcoin Mining Firm Bitmain Confirms Board Shakeup, Denies Jihan Wu is Out as Chair

this shows that there are internal problems in Bitmain

Mahanton

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Quote from: davis196 on November 14, 2018, 01:54:35 AM

Quote from: cellard on November 13, 2018, 11:25:14 PM

Craig Wright is back with his Bitcoin SV fork, and is showing strenght thus far with the amount of hashrate that is going to support the Bitcoin SV fork.

Apparently Roger Ver and Jihan Wu aren't supporting it, hence why the "hash wars" terms. With Jihan's empire against Craig Wright's 70% current hashrate it's going to be interesting.

The reason I ask about BTC price is because if Jihan wants to ensure CSW doesn't win, he may be forced to allocate BTC hashrate into this developing clusterfuck in BCash.

Will this be a non event or speculators will try to get some BTC out of it from noobs that fall into it?

Damn,bitcoin cash doesn't look like a functioning coin to me.It looks like a private company,in which 2-3 shareholders are fighting against each other for a bigger piece of the pie,and it's all about money. Grin

I feel sorry about all the bitcoin cash supporters outthere.They were manipulated to think that BCH is the real bitcoin.How sad.
Anyway,there won't be any impact over the Bitcoin Core price.

I do actually have the same views too when it regards to this BCH fork drama as of now it do really acts like a private company.I don't really care on what those people are trying to prove out.
Momentarily it did able to affect bitcoins price as of this moment if we try to check it out but It wont really be permanent at all.

TrumpD

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Its all about money.The whole thing feels staged for more profits. BCC has gained over 30% in the last few weeks, however, I reckon the current shenanigans won't impact Bitcoin prices much. Between both SV and ABC, hash power seems to favor SV. Watching to see how the whole thing develops.

BrewMaster

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There is trouble abrewing

when it comes to speculation sometimes you have to see what majority of people think will happen. it may sound weird but that is what drives the market most of the times!

for example in this case BitcoinSV is such an irrelevant fork that people weren't paying attention to it that much except for the BCH communities for obvious reasons. which makes believe that no matter what mess they create for themselves it won't affect bitcoin.
and lets not forget that almost all of BCH hashrate is controlled by the same people and they won't let it go anywhere else.

Topic: CSW's "hash wars" impact on BTC price? - page 6. (Read 1894 times)