Cypriot banks open in Tuesday (not in 4 hours).. Who wants to make a prediction?

S3052

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Quote from: nyusternie on March 27, 2013, 08:49:22 AM

Quote from: contactluis on March 27, 2013, 02:53:40 AM

Still, a 25% drop in 1/2 a day is still a pretty decent hammer and would bust any bubble.

agreed.

still waiting for this cypriot drama to play out and maintain the idea that its the "media" attention driving the price and not "actual" deposits. add to the fact that we're approaching $100 / BTC as well as 1 billion market cap and there's still major "mainstream" media bait to send this price skyrocketing.

i'm no expert, but there doesn't seem to be very much downside risk here and there's currently a strong trading wall at $95.
I for one am still very bullish and putting my fiat where my mouth is Wink

tomorrow there will be a shit storm in Cyprus with the bankrun. will be interesting to watch...

nyusternie

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Quote from: contactluis on March 27, 2013, 02:53:40 AM

Still, a 25% drop in 1/2 a day is still a pretty decent hammer and would bust any bubble.

agreed.

still waiting for this cypriot drama to play out and maintain the idea that its the "media" attention driving the price and not "actual" deposits. add to the fact that we're approaching $100 / BTC as well as 1 billion market cap and there's still major "mainstream" media bait to send this price skyrocketing.

i'm no expert, but there doesn't seem to be very much downside risk here and there's currently a strong trading wall at $95.
I for one am still very bullish and putting my fiat where my mouth is Wink

contactluis

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Quote from: Crazy on March 27, 2013, 02:16:10 AM

That was a 24% drop, no?

Your right, went back and calculated it ($64.46 opening, $52 low = 25% drop). Thanks! Still, a 25% drop in 1/2 a day is still a pretty decent hammer and would bust any bubble.

Crazy

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That was a 24% drop, no?

contactluis

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The Cypriot issue was just good press and got Bitcoins in many people's radar screen (in Europe and the U.S.). Has anybody done any research to see if Cyprus has the infrastructure for it's citizens to buy Bitcoins. They are a small country and probably don't have a middle money service like Dwolla or bitInstand and if they do, how much are their fees? They almost revolted over a 6.95% tax, after successfully defeating that, I think that they are not going to want to pay 5% in fees (bitIstand) just to keep their money safe.

I think that returns are the main force behind last week and this week cash inflows. The one week return though Tuesday at midnight was 32.74% (closing 3/19/13- $59.14, 3/26 - $78.50 : based on closing prices as listed at http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/ ). I have not seen a news story about any returns this week which really surprised me. I think the media missed that the price fell 40% in less than 24 hours and was fully recovered by Sunday night. This should of been major news because it debunks the fallacy that the recent rise of the price of Bitcoins was/is a bubble. No bubble can withstand being hit by a hammer and not break and a 40% drop in price is a very big hammer.

bubblesort

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Quote from: nyusternie on March 27, 2013, 12:02:21 AM

Quote from: bubblesort on March 26, 2013, 11:36:25 PM

Everybody was pretty much right on this one.

what do you mean? are the banks now open?

LOL, no, I mean everybody was right when they said that the banks opening wasn't going to directly effect the bitcoin markets all that much.

nyusternie

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Quote from: bubblesort on March 26, 2013, 11:36:25 PM

Everybody was pretty much right on this one.

what do you mean? are the banks now open?

bubblesort

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Lex Ad Impios

Everybody was pretty much right on this one.

The momentum continued, mostly unchanged after a bit of a dip over the weekend. We finally broke $80 US today, which we were hovering around for a while, so that was no huge surprise. There wasn't some ridiculously huge 50% spike in value when Cypriots all ran to spend their last Euro on bitcoins.

Moral of the story: Individuals in the speculation forum might be crazy, but if you poll opinions the wisdom of the crowd seems to be pretty good here.

S3052

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I bank run starting in Cyprus when those banks reopen and a spreading to other markets such as Italy, Spain could be in the cards

bubblesort

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Lex Ad Impios

So that's why the Kremlin didn't jump in to bail them out, LOL. They didn't have any assets left in the banks to protect.

BTC Books

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Quote from: Littleshop on March 26, 2013, 12:14:21 AM

Quote from: BTC Books on March 25, 2013, 11:38:41 PM

Whoa!

It looks possible that the Russians got their money out.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-25/have-russians-already-quietly-withdrawn-all-their-cash-cyprus

They quote a fresh Reuters article:

Quote

While ordinary Cypriots queued at ATM machines to withdraw a few hundred euros as credit card transactions stopped, other depositors used an array of techniques to access their money.

No one knows exactly how much money has left Cyprus' banks, or where it has gone. The two banks at the centre of the crisis - Cyprus Popular Bank, also known as Laiki, and Bank of Cyprus - have units in London which remained open throughout the week and placed no limits on withdrawals. Bank of Cyprus also owns 80 percent of Russia's Uniastrum Bank, which put no restrictions on withdrawals in Russia. Russians were among Cypriot banks' largest depositors.

Amazing, if true.

Not really true. There are limits on withdrawals. They 'locked down' at least 10% by reducing the balance on all accounts over the 100k euro limit. You cant pull money out past zero.

We'll see, I guess. I tend toward a bit more cynicism than that.

Russian to banker: "You want to make a big mistake or a little mistake?"

Banker: "What's the little mistake?"

Russian: "You conveniently forget to put any restrictions at all on your branches in London and Russia."

Banker: "Hmmm. And the big mistake?"

Russian: "That's a little more... personal."

Littleshop

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Quote from: BTC Books on March 25, 2013, 11:38:41 PM

Whoa!

It looks possible that the Russians got their money out.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-25/have-russians-already-quietly-withdrawn-all-their-cash-cyprus

They quote a fresh Reuters article:

Quote

While ordinary Cypriots queued at ATM machines to withdraw a few hundred euros as credit card transactions stopped, other depositors used an array of techniques to access their money.

No one knows exactly how much money has left Cyprus' banks, or where it has gone. The two banks at the centre of the crisis - Cyprus Popular Bank, also known as Laiki, and Bank of Cyprus - have units in London which remained open throughout the week and placed no limits on withdrawals. Bank of Cyprus also owns 80 percent of Russia's Uniastrum Bank, which put no restrictions on withdrawals in Russia. Russians were among Cypriot banks' largest depositors.

Amazing, if true.

Not really true. There are limits on withdrawals. They 'locked down' at least 10% by reducing the balance on all accounts over the 100k euro limit. You cant pull money out past zero.

nyusternie

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Quote from: BTC Books on March 25, 2013, 11:38:41 PM

Whoa!

It looks possible that the Russians got their money out.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-25/have-russians-already-quietly-withdrawn-all-their-cash-cyprus

They quote a fresh Reuters article:

Quote

While ordinary Cypriots queued at ATM machines to withdraw a few hundred euros as credit card transactions stopped, other depositors used an array of techniques to access their money.

No one knows exactly how much money has left Cyprus' banks, or where it has gone. The two banks at the centre of the crisis - Cyprus Popular Bank, also known as Laiki, and Bank of Cyprus - have units in London which remained open throughout the week and placed no limits on withdrawals. Bank of Cyprus also owns 80 percent of Russia's Uniastrum Bank, which put no restrictions on withdrawals in Russia. Russians were among Cypriot banks' largest depositors.

Amazing, if true.

yeah, since i heard rumors of a 30% tax on the largest depositors, i have been patiently waiting for this to happen. americans know all too well from our recent wall street fiascoes that the rich NEVER lose. the system is so pathetic. those claiming FUD should realize that this extends way past cyprus, and will almost certainly ripple throughout the eu and beyond. and once this "debt haircut" precedent is set (whatever the outcome may be) there is almost certain to be "real" fear by the citizens of any country in slightest bit of financial troubles.

i really don't believe the recent btc surge is a direct result of any new (or potential) cyprus / russian deposits; but more likely from all the worldwide press coverage that is introducing bitcoin (as a wealth storage mechanism) for the first time to the mainstream population. at this point, any mention of bitcoin (that doesn't reference drugs or gambling) is bound to have positive effect on the price.

BTC Books

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Whoa!

It looks possible that the Russians got their money out.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-25/have-russians-already-quietly-withdrawn-all-their-cash-cyprus

They quote a fresh Reuters article:

Quote

While ordinary Cypriots queued at ATM machines to withdraw a few hundred euros as credit card transactions stopped, other depositors used an array of techniques to access their money.

No one knows exactly how much money has left Cyprus' banks, or where it has gone. The two banks at the centre of the crisis - Cyprus Popular Bank, also known as Laiki, and Bank of Cyprus - have units in London which remained open throughout the week and placed no limits on withdrawals. Bank of Cyprus also owns 80 percent of Russia's Uniastrum Bank, which put no restrictions on withdrawals in Russia. Russians were among Cypriot banks' largest depositors.

Amazing, if true.

TraderTimm

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My sneaking suspicion is that those banks won't open at all.

They're only increasing the probability of a run, and they have to know that.

Dargo

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Cypriot banks won't open till Thursday

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cyprus-eu-imf-agree-draft-002707985.html

BTC Books

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Quote from: Vladimir on March 25, 2013, 09:20:46 PM

What is interesting to see is how fungible Euros are. By this I mean what premium black market will dictate for German Euros vs Cypriotic Euros.

Are there any street numbers available for arbitrage?

BitPirate

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Quote from: ?? on ??

How many people in Cyprus(from ~800,000), you believe they know bitcoin??

Again, why are people in this thread being so simplistic? It's the same kind of argument that spoils the debate on global warming, or GM crops.

Yes, the Cyprus situation will have a net positive effect on Bitcoin.

But no, that doesn't mean that it is a significant direct effect from people in Cyprus withdrawing their cash and putting it into BTC.

BTC will benefit indirectly from a slight loss in confidence in the Euro. I expect this will initially come from existing BTC adopters, but their enthusiasm will bring on board new adopters too.

So -- it's positive for Bitcoin, but the world isn't as small and simple as people are thinking.

Vladimir

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-

What is interesting to see is how fungible Euros are. By this I mean what premium black market will dictate for German Euros vs Cypriotic Euros.

Littleshop

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Quote from: jubalix on March 25, 2013, 08:15:04 PM

I can only cocur that cyprus has validated all the tinfoil hats from being conspiracy nuts to potentially credible

The international commuinty now has irrevockable evidence they will come for your bank account

Well not really. It is not THEY who are coming for your bank account. It is that banks are not always safe due to poor investment choices.

While it has been clearly spelled out in detailed news stories, few people seem to understand what happened in Cyprus. The money was LOST due to bad PRIVATE bank decisions. The government is doing a (poor) job of cleaning things up, but the money was already lost. It has been gone for a while actually.

Topic: Cypriot banks open in Tuesday (not in 4 hours).. Who wants to make a prediction? (Read 4857 times)