Topic: Dead Cat Bounce ??!! - page 2. (Read 9241 times)

Oh, damn... I thought this was a link that would lead to a page where I could put some virtual flowers after buying them for bitcoin.

I can guarantee that the difficulty will go down significantly, but not right a way. It will be a gradual process.

For me the cat is showing signs of life again when we go at least a month without a new bottom for both the price and network transaction count.
 
The end of continuous decline is desperately needed before we can hope for better times.

Well excuse me ... But i believe the CAT will be dead or playing dead for fairly long long time before she can jump up again and run.. well , fairly long enough to shake off all the leach hit-and-run miners and traders.

And again, and no matter how much you say this is a repeated talk of nonsense, the difficulty is the key to look up what is going on .. but this time i say not just the difficulty .. it is the difficulty combined with the total network hash.



Because the current situation is a crazy so so so much stretched difficultly with insane mining power! So the cat is playing DEAD And it will keep it like that to shake off those mine-and-run and trade-and-run leaches.


Only, and it is jut the only way, the difficulty settle down at sane level combined by reasonable network hash power. then the cat will be up and running again.


The only exception to that is the introduction of the law, religion, big-ass market adoption or political power (or any other similar non-sense spiritual power) to force in huge number of daily users and drive the demand up.


Like in case of a residential decision to use bitcoin as the official currency for the united colonies of beavers or colored republic of birds, ummm or a sun religious direction to the sun flowers around the earth or maybe the a royal adoption by the kingdom of mars aliens... or if you are lucky some ancient writings are discovered on the great wall of ants that tells them to use only bitcoin or a lucky adoption by Assbook users, fart electronic cards around the globe , .. etc which is not likely to happen any time soon if it will at all.


Until then we will enjoy decorating the R.I.P Bitcoin Grave with a lot of sorrow and speculation section forum posts.

You've just described capitalism and the free market.

I also match agreement. Heres to le future.

I've got to say I agree with many of the things you said here.

I almost made a new thread but I'll simply use this thread.

I think that we're currently in a very clear dead cat bounce situation and we will actually be locked into a cycle of bouncing for a while now. This is because most people have now accepted the fact that there will be no major uptrend in the near future, so nobody is willing to drive the price to $5+.

Now what this means is that every time we go up a certain percentage, there will be massive selling pressure. A very high percentage of all activity will be simply day trading. The bag holders don't want to sell if they haven't already, because they think the price can't go much lower anymore.

On the other hand people waiting to buy are not sure if it's low enough yet and are very caucious, most likely waiting for the price to go lower.

This to me looks like we will be fairly stable for the next few months and possibly bottom out at lower than $2.x at some point. After that it's really upto the real Bitcoin economy what'll happen, if there are real developments and increased adoption, we will have a new uptrend. This uptrend will be more massive than anything so far if it takes off, but it won't be based on pure hype. Stuff needs to happen.

But an economy is not built in a day, I'm not even convinced Bitcoin will really flourish next year. It might take many years. But as long as it's functional and legal there are very good odds we'll see good things in the future.

Concise and to the point! I like it!

My story is even simpler.  "I'm doing cryptography to secure a peer to peer network.  I get paid a few pennies for this, but I feel it's pretty important so I'm doing it.  Wanna learn more?"

 
In part, yes. One of the main functions of Bitcoin from an economic perspective is as a store of value, it's an inflation protection of sort. This is great for anyone wanting to find a place for very long term savings that will be safe and will hold their value. It's difficult to think about this when the price is so dominated by speculation right now but for the long term this is a big thing for Bitcoin. And if the price is close to $1, there really isn't that much risk in simply buying everything (as long as the fundamentals are still solid).

No, most speculators would forget about Bitcoins. And for the very long term this might even be good. As long as Bitcoin is functional it'll have a growing support base especially in the radical liberal camp.

What is interesting and I do think this is a bit of a problem, is security. Reliability and functionality are the most important fundamentals besides legality (these are related though) and if the amount of miners decline to low numbers it'll make the network much easier to attack.

So from this perspective I don't really want to see the price go super low even temporarily, because it could be a risk for the whole network. Right now we're still at high hash numbers so it's very safe, but this could change if the price goes super low. But I really doubt it, for example at a price of $1 the whole Bitcoin economy would be worth a maximum of 7 million dollars which is so low of a number that we need a fundamental decline far greater than we've seen so far to justify that number.

No kidding.
1.They wouldnt bother with GPG/OTC
2.They wouldnt try to build forum rep to buy/sell
3.They would Need their money asap

So they would use Automated selling systems. Wich undercut the market, Wich in turn drops the value

Not trying to be negative, but wont the dealers sell most of the coins again? Of course it's still good for bitcoin in general, just not for the price short-term.

When i tell people im making money off of my GPU's , They go "whaaaat" and i go "im doing reserch for---BLAH BLAH LONG STORY" And i basically tell them Everything i know about Folding@Home.

Then they go. Ohhhhh k.... so you get a Stock that you can sell because you did that with your comps? "Yes"

For the BTC price to rise we just need another politician talking about Silk Road. The junkies will buy coins and the price will fly. Yay! 

We will NEVER FORGET bitcoin!!!!

NEVER, EVER, EVER, EVER, EVER...!!!!!  *sob*

NEVER FORGET!!!!!!!!

So you think bitcoin will be saved by people buying them all up and hoarding them?  If price drops much lower most people are gonna forget about bitcoins and keep an eye out for the next big thing. 

The price will bottom out and it will be above $1, that's something I can bet any amount on. Unless the fundamentals of legality, reliability and functionality are somehow broken. Even considering a price of below $1 is currently ridiculous. Simply because there are multiple players in the market who have the money to buy every coin in existence, if they were sold at that price level. And there would be hundreds if not thousands of smaller players like me trying to buy anything they can.

So for me the bottom has to happen in between $1 and the current price of around $4. Personally I see it bottoming out at $3.x, because the closer we get to $1, more impossible it'll be for the price to go down further.

It's idiotic to think of this situation like going back to the days when the price was at $1 levels last time. Bitcoin economy, the players involved, the amount of people who know about it, are all indicators that have risen hundreds if not thousands of percents from that time. Even taking into account the decline we've seen in recent months. And not all indicators have declined, for example the amount of merchants in the economy has actually gone up.

1) imsaguy's chart above should tell you that the public peak was months ago. Google trends, meme behavior, etc.: BTC will not catch on without the general public enjoying BTC like they do USD/EUR. 3) I'm saying that if the RUB is 3rd to USD and EUR in BTC exchange transaction volume, BTC has a lot to offer in anonymity, black market, and laundering. 2) is not about time, it's about adoption. I'm involved with exchanges, and if you think security isn't an issue for the non-public like me (my bank, CC, all my financial life has enormous protections in current law), I'm including my risk of major exchanges getting hacked/stealing my BTC. Sorry, but if you read these forums regularly, security should worry you. You and the rest of the forum posters are 4): blind hope on the future of BTC based on failed libertarian principles. 5) keeps you going only on swings, whether its $25-$30 or $1-$1.01. Activity != viability.


Yes! Thanks for the chart. Maybe my parity correction is wrong, but I sincerely believe the true value of bitcoin is represented in my previous post. There is no up from where we are.


All of this.

Have you looked at NMC once mining power fled?  TL;DR - about 5 months for difficulty to adjust down to match the current number of miners.  We ran NMC difficulty to 100k in about 3 days of profitable mining, and the remaining chumps are going to be slogging along for nearly half a year of mining at a loss to make up for it.  They'll be done around February with some luck.

Any number of people could do a 51% attack on namecoin right now, this very minute.

Even if 10% of the current miners have free electricity it won't rescue bitcoin if prices go sufficiently lower than cost to generate at 1.5M difficulty for the remaining 90%.   They're not going to buy bitcoin because it's cheaper to buy than mine, most will shut down and/or sell their rigs and forget about the whole thing.  $1.25 and you can stick a fork in it.  At $4.11 the pyramid is already wobbling pretty hard.

Weekend effect in progress.  If it flatlines at 4.1 without appreciable hash power loss on deepbit I may risk bottom fishing for coins to flip into expected rallies to 4.5.   Should be safe-ish enough, looks like this month's bloodbath has run its course.  It'll take a month for miners to stockpile again.

If the difficulty (and network utility/security) is plummeting I'm definitely not stepping up to catch knives.  The bulls are running their keyboards well enough but failing to throw sufficient good money after bad.